Post Race Analysis of the Colonial (err Arlington) Million.

Fort Washington Over Grand Sonata and Integration

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  Remember, this is a no brag zone, but it's not bragging to say I've been fire over the grass with the exacta's, taking down favorites left and right.  My no favorite Exacta Bet cost $18 but paid $88.  These are the bets that drive ROI for the horseplayer.

Again, another race with a better than even money favorite fell to Show.  60%  of the time the favorites lose.  It's an angle I love to exploit.  I do everything in my power to avoid bias in my handicapping and betting.  The pretty girls on FanDuel TV can be compelling, the ex-Jock can be compelling, but its all bias.  I find I'm more successful not knowing if the horse is named after someone who's sick or died, or a feel good  news item about the connections.  I'm human and I love a good human interest story (I cried a lot about the story behind Cody's Wish- but I still bet against him!) just not if it brings bias to me.  Anyways, looking at a wide sample size we ask ChatGPT  how often the favorite Wins-Places or Shows.

For turf racing only in the U.S., the numbers for post-time favorites shift slightly lower than Dirt because:

• Turf races often have larger fields and more competitive entries than dirt races.

• Pace dynamics can create more upsets, but the favorite still performs strongly.

📊 Typical U.S. turf racing averages (compiled from multi-year Equibase & DRF summaries):

• Win: ~33–34%

• Place (1st or 2nd): ~55–57%

• Show (1st, 2nd, or 3rd): ~71–73%

That means favorites on turf finish in the top two a little more than half the time, slightly less than the overall racing average (≈58–60%).

9 August 2025; Cnl; The Arlington Million G1 on Firm Turf.

With all due respect, Mystik Dan didn't deserve $3.7-1 odds.  He's done nothing on Turf and for a $4.5 MM lifetime winner, looks washed at Grade 1 level.  An emotionless gambler needs to look for these angles, over bet name recognition horses.  I think Integration is a good horse, a horse for the course, but he's not Secretariat!  Those odds were too short at $0.6-1.  

I said I didn't think Vesting (Ire) scratch meant anything to the pace, and it didn't.  I liked Cairo but he was so wet in his shoulders I was not shocked how he flattened.  Time Song and Runaway Storm are still running and I rightly tossed them.  That left Fort Washington and Grand Sonata, both of whom I thought were overlooked and in great form.   

  Keep handicapping, keep looking for the patterns that repeat over and over and over.  As your handicapping improves, your bet construction will improve. 

A simple bet construction I offered up prerace paid $88 on an $18 bet.  I had the superfecta in my handicap as well, but that's a drug I avoid these days! 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The (imposter) Arlington Million at Colonial Downs

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap (mostly) older horses, (mostly) running over routes of grass and I build exactas (almost always) from the information.  I believe in the following core principles:  Last speed is better than early (mostly), Older Horses give you more data and more predictability (mostly), Class matters (almost always), bet against favorites (60% of the time they lose) (almost always), build a base handicap that isn't your bet but is the best horses with best chance to win (everytime), build and adjust odds so you can compare to fair odds table (always), have fun, don't take yourself too seriously, and stay humble (forever).  

Now that I bared my soul to you, let me say I hate that they call these races Arlington anything.  Arlington, to me, the most beautiful track, with an incredible turf course, that truly attracted top European talent, was destroyed by greed and the poor leadership within the track ownership community.  Don't insult my intelligence with this BS.  While I'm happy they actually have a purse of $1.0 MM still, remember in 1981 dollars when this race started, that $1.0 MM is now worth $3.54 MM.  The race hasn't progressed  and that's why, along with other reasons, it's a poor excuse of a G1.  That's The Turk's two cents, I generally don't get into such weighty subjects, but there you go.

My son and I made many trips to Arlington over the last decade.  Those are memories I will always cherish.  I've told my backstory and my connection to the Arlington fire of 1985 before and you can find it in this link.  This track closure hurt because it was done because of terrible state leadership and the pursuit of slot revenue, terrible track ownership and apathy.  When you lose the good things in life they seldom come back.

Anyways, lets get back to the handicapping. I've been experimenting with AI lately.  While very rudimentary, I upload the PDF of the Past Performance to ChatGPT and build charts of data I like to see and compile generally by hand  (Tomlinsons, Beyers, Early and Late Timeform, Class by number of Stakes Wins).  It speeds things up for me. Next I will figure out how to automate to make the process quicker and repeatable.  I'd love to incorporate more API data into what I do but I won't pay the crazy prices for DataStream access the monopolies over this sport demand.  If anyone has an idea and wants to collaborate, let me know.

The weather should be dry and hot so assume Firm Turf.  Colonial Downs is a fairly lame website, look for scratches and changes and track condition here.  

8 June 2025; SAR; The Manhattan G1; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf

 

19 July 2025; Mth; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on firm Turf

17 May 2025; Pim; The Dinner Party G3; 1 1/8  miles on Good Turf.

17 June 2025; Ascot (GB); The Queen Anne Stakes G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Firm" turf.  

What to do with all of this?  I like Integration a lot here:  9 of 14 in Turf Exactas, 4 of 4 in Colonial Exactas.  Training very sharply over turf at Saratoga including a bullet :46 4/5ths at 4f with 51 others that day.  Feels right with a 5 YO son of Quality Road running well in Virginia.  Mr. Evans smiles. 

I'm going to bet that he finishes no better than Place.  Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Fort Washington, Cairo, Grand Sonata and Integration, a $2 exacta for $18.  

Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make.  Vesting, who I didn't think could possibly win, just scratched.  a seven horse race now, and Vesting leaving doesn't change the pace consideration for me (poor early speed, mid late).  

If anything I'm less inclined to bet $18.  Try Fort Washington, Cairo and Grand Sonata OVER Integration, a $2 Bet for $6.  Mid value/low risk. 

I don't love this race, gamble wisely.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Beverly D. Stakes at Colonial Downs

 

Arlington Park in its full glory

I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me an opportunity to handicap and share my thoughts with you today.  You can find my handicapping and exacta bet construction at The Turk Blog.  I am The Turk and I've been a horse racing fan and handicapper for nearly 40 years and I started blogging in 2007.  

The Beverly D. Stakes has been a prestigious American horse race for Fillies and Mares, run right before The Arlington Million. Named in honor of Beverly Duchossois, the wife of Chicago businessman and horse racing enthusiast Richard Duchossois, the race has a rich history intertwined with the development of Arlington Park and its premier international turf racetrack.  While The Turk believes these famous race names should be retired and new traditions born, no one in power really cares what this two bit handicapper thinks.  Similarly, no one at CDI or the Illinois Racing Commission really care either that greed and shortsighted policy making destroyed this track, decimating the purses and putting it on the path to closure and then demolition.  Shame on these people that allowed a premier facility to be wiped off the map.  

The Beverly D. Stakes was inaugurated in 1987 as part of Richard Duchossois’s broader efforts to rejuvenate Arlington Park, which had suffered a devastating fire in 1985. The rebuilding of the park was an ambitious project, and the introduction of the Beverly D. Stakes was intended to elevate Arlington Park’s status in the international racing community. The race was designed as a companion event to the Arlington Million, a race that had already established itself as one of the premier turf races in the United States.  The Turk has told the story several times on my blog, but I was at the track the night of the fire.  I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center and answered the call to help with efforts at the scene.  That night left a lasting impression on me.  I was invested in the redevelopment of Arlington Park and later in life, my family and I took vacations to Chicago for Million Day at the track.  

From the outset, the Beverly D. Stakes was established to be a Grade I race, a status it lost beginning with this year's event. The race is run over a route of grass and historically attracted many international competitors, often using the race as a kickoff to Breeders' Cup campaigns. Run over a distance of 1 3/16 miles, The Beverly D. Stakes is open to fillies and mares aged three years and older.  With the demise of Arlington Park, the race bounced to Churchill Downs, but has been spun off to Colonial Downs, where the event anchors the biggest day of the racing calendar year and hopefully regains some of its luster as time goes by.  Because of the pending heavy rains from the tropical storm, the card shifted to Sunday and the turf course is being protected as best as possible in advance of the event.

And make no mistake about it, Arlington Million Day was a premier day on the calendar and network coverage always gave it a large audience. The sport has done so much damage to itself, but this is a sport that excels at finding new bottoms.   What the flawed human stewards of the sport cannot take away is the past and the glory of races like this.  One of the most memorable early winners was Flawlessly, who triumphed in 1992 after a long objection/inquiry delay. Trained by the legendary Charlie Whittingham, Flawlessly was a model of consistency and excellence on the turf, and her victory in the Beverly D. Stakes solidified her place as one of the leading turf mares of her era.

 

The Beverly D. Stakes has also been a stage for international success. Horses from Europe and other regions have frequently competed, often with great success. The 2013 victory by Dank, a British mare trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is one such example. Dank’s powerful late surge in the race not only earned her the Beverly D. Stakes title but also contributed to her being named the American Champion Female Turf Horse that year.

 

 My personal favorite is 2010, and Mr. Duchossois finally winning the race with Eclair de Lune (Ger), and as he wipes tears away from the winners circle, states that winning this race was more important to him than the Kentucky Derby.  Take that CDI.

 

 While I'm glad to see the race is run for $500,000, you have to understand it was $750,000 for many years at Arlington, dropping to $400,000 when it was at Churchill.  With inflation, these races are not the draws they were to the international racing community that they once were.  That's partially why we get a six horse Beverly D. field, a six horse Arlington Million field.  Losing its Grade 1 status doesn't help either.  

The Turk truly hopes a turf festival of speed and excitement takes hold at Colonial Downs, but I'm skeptical, not of these wonderful animals, or the connections, but of the short sightedness of the industry in general.   While I'd said I'd rather see these proud and legendary events retired and new events and history formed, I'm glad a horseman and true ambassador of the sport, Mr. Duchossois can be remembered, as well as the enduring memory of his beloved, Beverly.  

Enough rambling, lets get after it!

The weather will be wet on Friday but should improve Saturday and Sunday.  For now we will assume something nearing Good to Firm but if the rains pick up Sunday Good to Yielding.  Like many tracks, the website does not cater very much to horseplayers, so you'll find scratches/Changes and updated track conditions on a redirect to Bloodhorse via this link. 

Let's look at just three videos.

The Beverly D Preview $125K : 1 1/16 mile on soft turf 13 July 2024.  A five horse field, of which Nadette (Fr) embarrassed the rest of the field with her paid workout.  

The Diana G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf at SAR;  I really liked the close on Moira and not much to like about Ontario Bred Mission of Joy or PA Bred Neecie Marie. 

The New York G1:  1 3/16 Miles on Firm Turf at SAR 7 June.  Neecie Marie deserves another look for her bravery navigating traffic and giving Didia a run late.  Neecie Marie, gets Dettori up.  by the way, did you notice young Frankie in the '93 race won by Flawlessly?  Amazing career.  

Fev Rover (Ire) did little here, came back and cut back to 1 mile at Woodbine for her next outing.  The six year old is a year removed from winning the Grade 1 version of this race and the Grade 1 EP Taylor at Woodbine. $1.3 MM winner on $6,700 purchase, not too bad. 

What to do with all this?

In full disclosure,  I think I will play the Pick 3 All Graded Stakes that begins at 5:20 ET with the Grade 3 Secretariat, an 8 horse field of 3 YOs that I suspect will pop value, followed by The Beverly D. and the Arlington Million.  I think I will single The Beverly D.  with Moira in that play. I will be posting to my blog Saturday with the Pick 3 and individual race handicaps.

 

 If I'm playing this race, I want Moira to be beat.  I think Moira, followed by Fev Rover (Ire) will be a heavily bet 1-2.  In my hunt for value, I put Mission of Joy and Neecie Marie in the top spot and Mission of Joy, Neccie Marie, Moria and Fev Rover in the Place position.  This Bet 3-5 OVER 3-5-4-6, a $2 exacta for $12.  

I can't say I love it, but if I want some skin in the game, that's my bet.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!  

The Nomination Is In: Colonial Downs Turf Festival featuring the "Arlington" Million

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, with over 700 Blog Posts over the past 16 race seasons.  My primary focus is turf handicapping and exacta betting.  

The Turk's connection to Arlington was deep.  I've told the story many times, but I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center the night of the fire on 31 July 1985.  I was volun-ordered to get on a truck and about 15 of us were there helping with traffic and running supplies.  Flash forward and Arlington became a love of mine, with its lush turf and international turf festival.  It was my first race track vacation and it became an annual trip with my teen aged son to see the Million.  I also wrote many articles about the state of Illinois Racing, and how the corrupt and incompetent State government was killing the sport with their policies.   I don't blame the Bears, but CDI is not innocent:  They could have persevered, conducted more lobbying efforts, brought some races to the track, helped with purses, but no, they took the easy cash and again showed distain for the 'more than casual' fan. 

I don't believe in organized boycotts, although I think they can be effective, but who's really being hurt?  Blue collar employees, while the boss man sips champagne. I considered never playing a race called "Arlington Million", but who does that hurt? No one but me.  I can hate what happened to my beloved Arlington, I can mourn what I lost as a fan and a human, but I'm a turf racing handicapper and I remind myself the horses don't know or care about any of these first world problems.  They were bred to run and entertain us, give us pleasure.  It's symbiotic:  How many thoroughbreds would be born without racing? A tiny fraction of the 17,300-ish born now.  According to Jockey Club, that's already a 50% reduction from the 34,000 born in 2001.  That's startling when first read until you think about the shrinking of the sport, the industry, the field sizes.  How many Secretariat's or Zenyatta's were not born over the past 22 years?  Don't think about it.

That is an angle to consider when you think about the Europeans. There was a time when most of the Euro's on a turf festival day had to be respected.  As hard as it was to evaluate them on an apples to apples basis,  you could see the quality of the connections, read the running lines, and just know you had to include them or exclude them on not always ideal data.  Now, while anecdotal, I'm seeing fields get fleshed out with so-so Euro's, and the best not coming until Breeders' Cup final prep time.  

I'd be remiss to not talk about Maple Leaf Mel today.  I've seen breakdowns before, but I'm not sure I've ever seen one as horrific or shocking as hers last week. When I walked into Saratoga last Saturday I walked past the protesters who would be happy to see horse racing banned, not caring that Maple Leaf Mel would never even have been born if it were not for racing. We would have been denied the incredible stretch run the undefeated Maple Leaf Mel made as she was about to become a Grade 1 winner in The Test, we would have been denied the outpouring of love and support to the connections, starting with her Trainer, Mel Giddings and Football Hall of Fame owner Bill Parcells.  The NY Bred raced into imaginations and now into nightmares.  I'm glad Maple Leaf Mel was born, and I'm glad she ran, and I'm glad when she needed humans the most, in pain and shock, that she was given humane treatment, and I'm glad to get my regular reminder that this sport is about the horses and people that work with these horses.  Rest in Peace Maple Leaf Mel. 

Ok, lets get after this!

You'll find Scratches and Changes here as well as Turf Condition which I think will be Firm.  

 It's a deep field, even if class and quality is just a cut below the best editions of this race.  Notably missing are high end European's that were a staple of Arlington Park editions of this race.  Let's not cry any further for what was lost, lets focus on who is here. 

Catnip and Adhamo (Ire) have my top spots.  

Catnip is five of 8 Turf Exactas and 4 of 4 in the exacta in 2023.  Adding an 1/8 of a mile to the classic distance which he tries for the first time.  It's  a tough spot for a lightly run 4 YO,  but I'm intrigued and the price should be right.  

Catnip as a beaten Favorite on Haskell Day, the  1 3/8ths United Nations G1

Adhamo (IRE) goes for the first time since October 2022.  Chad Brown wins off of a +180 Day Layoff 29% of the time. 4 of 6 at the distance in the money, 7 of 16 on Turf in the exacta, the 5 YO has been training very sharply since early July in Saratoga.  

Those chalks of mine were as light as chalk get.  My next group of 4, and my top six in general, has little to differentiate them.  This next group are Turk favorites, the grizzled veterans.

Set Piece (GB) has to me the best late speed of the field.  Adding distance and running back as the beaten favorite over good turf at EIP on Stephen Foster Day.  At the back of a 10 horse field, forced to go six wide in the final turn, gaining at the end, just not able to get the trip Geroux, up, may have preferred.  Have to respect. 

Master Piece (Chi), now 7 YO, trained  by Dutrow, comes back after a yielding Turf  1 1/16 mile OC$80K on 4 July.  1 win in last 8 starts.  10 of 22 in exactas over grass.  Solid late speed.  Running well to Place finish, no excuses. Lezcano up today. 

Chad Brown's Rockemperor comes in off of a dog of a classic distance Manhattan on Belmont Day.   In what could be a duplicate pace scenario today, you'll see Strong Quality lead most of the race with it's good early speed, only to sink like a stone at the end.  Both Strong Quality and Rockemperor aren't in the frame when Up to the Mark blew the doors off this one.  I'm hard pressed to see this effort and think anything other than minor prize material.  

 

Never Explain, the $475,000 KEE sale son of Street Sense is at $302,000 of career winnings and a line of 17: 5W 2P 3S.   7 of 16 exactas over turf, no classic distance efforts, and cutting back 1/8 of a mile from the good turf Bowling Green at SAR on 30 July.  The ageless Channel Maker had easy fractions and plenty of stamina to seal this one off.  

What am I doing with this?  A 8-9-3-6-2 Boxed Exacta for $1 dollar will cost $20.  I'm including my top six with exception of Rockemperor, at my own peril.  I'm tempted to Catnip in the top spot and wheel him in my exacta with the other 4 below, a much cheaper bet, but I think the odds will be favorable and the will pay in many of these combinations able to cover the bet and give me a return.  That's the thought but I may adjust as we go.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Arlington Classic G3

Millions Day 2016

The Turk loves Arlington.  My first time at the track was a bit unconventional;  July 31, 1985,  the day the old track burned to the ground.

I was in the US Navy at the time, stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center, as an E-3 in Machinist Mate A School.   One normal school night, I was told to grab my gear and get on a truck to go help with a large fire.  I spent about 8 hours doing odds and ends in support of the firefighters and the first responders.

The Turk hadn't quite become The Turk at that point, that didn't happen until the following summer of 1986 that I spent at Saratoga Springs, but I was a race fan and was saddened by what I saw that day.  If it wasn't for the fire it's doubtful we would have the beautiful facility we have now, so if there was a silver lining, it's that.  Now if the State of Illinois can get out of their own way and allow horse racing to grow again.



The Turk thinks the Arlington turf course is the best in the United States and doesn't even mind the fake dirt.  He only wishes they could attract better fields with bigger purses.  I was at the Millions last year, and given the choice between an outrageously priced Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga and The Millions, I'll take Chicago any day.


Turf handicapping is my first love.  It doesn't mean I have my best ROI with it, but I love the tactics of the turf racing and a late turn of foot over a route of grass excites me more than the dirt.  Today's handicap is the Arlington Classic, a Grade 3 run at 1 1/16 miles.  Expect the track to be listed as something better than Yielding, but that's just a guess and take a look as race time approaches.  The weather in Arlington Heights appears to be rather crappy tonight but a bit dryer tomorrow.

Anyways. let's get after this!




Trainer Brian Cox has Cowboy Culture, a 3 YO Quality Road baby out of English Willow.  A 90 Beyer over turf is the race high, set a a 1 Mile distance two races back. Cox is 32% off 31-60 day layoff and 33% in 317 starts over turf, while he and Bridgmohan, up, are 27% together.  Training sharply over CD turf.

Fast and Accurate was eased at the Kentucky Derby three weeks back.  The G3 Spiral Stakes winner looks primed for turf sucess but I don't think I like him to win quite yet until he's done it a bit more.  He's close and I'm covering him in Win Spot.

Giant Payday is 3 of 4 in the money over Turf but 0 of 4 in 2017 and 1 win lifetime in 8 starts.  maybe on the lead and setting early pace but I expect a gradual fade to Place thru Exotic.

Parlor is also 3 of 4 in turf starts and returns to the turf 3 weeks after last effort over grass at CD.  Might really surprise for Eddie Kenneally.

Gorgeous Kitten and Sakonnet offer wild card value for me in Place thru Exotic, with expected finishes no higher than Show. Michael Maker trains Gorgeous Kitten for owner/breeders The Ramsey's and this colt could easily crack the Top 3.  Sakonnet is not as high end as Gorgeous Kitten but the maiden will be game.

I'm looking for a bit of low priced fun:  $0.10 Super of 6-8 OVER 6-7-8-9 OVER 3-4-7-8-9 OVER 3-4-7-8-9 for $6 bucks.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

Happy Holidays from the Turk and Little Turk

Happy Holidays to my friends, family and readers. The Turk enjoyed some quality downtime from the races following the Clark Handicap, which hard to believe, was a month ago. As a blogger I'm often loathe to take weeks off, but I remind myself I've never really been about traffic, ad revenue, or even good writing, so a few weeks away during the holidays is almost a public service! Seriously, I had nothing to offer over the past few weeks and I'd rather be silent than flap my gums for the sake of flapping.

Without the cycle of handicapping, blogging, betting, post race analysis (wash, sleep, repeat)I was able to go sleep early on Friday nights, push away from the computer screen on Saturday mornings, and think little of the races. This time of year, even though we haven't gotten much snow, I build a fire each Friday and Saturday night, and after Mama and Little Turk go off to bed, Kay, the family wiemaraner and I, will sit in quiet reflection and think on the events that were and the future to come. I like to believe that it's during this time that I elevate myself from drone to human.

The Turk had a good year overall and there is much to be thankful for. My family remains alive and healthy: Papa Turk's mechanical ticker is still ticking and cousin Kevin beat cancer. My nephew Danny, try as hard as he can, healed all his broken bones. My job continues to place food on my table and provide for my families needs. The job is a tough physical and mental grind, but I'm grateful for the opportunity and when it ends one day I'll be able to say I gave it my all. Little Turk became a black belt in his martial art, Bushido Kai. He worked all off season with a private coach and brought his soccer game to a new level as well. Little Turk is a good student, with grades in the low 90's, but more importantly, his report cards are filled with top marks for discipline and conduct and he's becoming a thoughtful young man. Unbeknownst to me, he wrote a paper in school recently about what he wished he could give for Christmas, and he wished he could bring Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds back to life for his family. Speaking of Tiznow, his death in late September might have been the low point of the year. The young man had so much passion for our sport, his death has left a void in many peoples lives, especially his family and young daughter. Lost as well this past year was Rachel Beard, DVM, a passionate horse racing fan and veterinarian. I hope both Tim and Rachel find peace on the other side.

I was blessed again this year to be able to collaborate with some of the best writers on the Internet(and traditional media) covering horse racing: Steve from Wireplayers.com invited my to join his merry group to vote on Derby Contenders for the second year in a row. It's a raucous group effort that I thoroughly enjoy and speaking of collaborations, I've contributed to some group "Top Five" efforts at Hello Race Fans! and I'm always honored at the opportunity to share my thoughts when they kindly ask. The Thorofan allowed me to handicap for The Handicapper's Corner. The Thorofan is an organization of people united together to give racing fans a voice and an opportunity to come together socially. Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers and the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance are two groups that I proudly write for, and I have been grateful as well to have my postings available at Raceday 360 Wire.

The subtitle of this blog is "Horses, Handicapping and Hi jinks". I cover the handicapping pretty well along with the horses, but this ol' cigar chomping handicapper may bore you with what he considers hi jinks at this point in his life. In 2011 I was lucky enough to attend races at Santa Anita and Del Mar, as well as witness morning work at both tracks. I visited Turf Paradise, Belmont, Arlington, Aqueduct and Churchill Downs, as well as a brief, few race Saratoga visit. The highlight of the year was the Breeders' Cup with the Turk Clan and our dear friends from North of the border.

I'm going to be playing Santa Anita and Gulfstream primarily over the next several months. I had negative ROI through April the past three years in a row which doesn't surprise me: I don't pay attention to two year olds and the Derby prep races chew me up. I am positive ROI during that same time period with older horses and turf racing. A quick review showed I had spotty results at Aqueduct, Tampa Downs, LA Downs and a few other tracks I don't play often. That makes sense as well and I'll spend the first few weeks of the new year handicapping but keeping my bet exposure reasonable or non existent. I do my best work when I get a feel for how the track plays and with horses on their second efforts of a meet. I'm going to be a patient bettor but an active handicapper and post race analyst, which is my real love anyways (not that I have a problem with large stacks of money).

I'll be back before tomorrow with opening day at Santa Anita. Life is good friends, enjoy it, we are only here for a short while. I'd like to end with a final thanks to all the kind words of support my horse racing friends provided while my loving dog Kay went through a serious health scare. I didn't think she'd still be with me this time last week, and while not out of the woods, there is daylight again.

Blessed Christmas. Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: Breeders' Cup Betting Targets and The Mile Grade 1

Is there another figure more synonymous with the Breeders' Cup Mile than Freddie Head? Five times this man stood in the winner's circle, twice as a jockey aboard Miesque and then the last three years as trainer of Goldikova, a mare requiring no introduction in the racing world.

The pre entries are in and the advanced past performances are available for next weekend two day Breeders' Cup World Championships. Where do you start? Well, that's a personal decision, but for me, I start at the betting menu. There are 15 Breeders' Cup races, 10 of which are Grade I events, as well as five juvenile races. That's quite a bit of handicapping to do. Then there is the weather wildcard. Will it rain, will the track be sealed, sloppy or fast? Will the turf be yielding, American style fast, or a bit soft like our Euro cousins like? Some of these questions you just can't answer one week out but what you can do is prepare.

Preparation for the Ol' Turk means identifying which races I intend to handicap, setting my betting budget, and coming up with a betting strategy. It also means doing some mundane things like getting my bet preparation worksheets together. I know that I don't process the tote board information by sight, I have to write it down 25 minutes to post and counting down to 8 minutes. I watch the trending as I jot down onto my pre printed worksheets the odds off the tote and I also have my pre printed slots where I write out my bets and what I expect the bet to cost. This may sound wildly anal, and most likely it is, but I take positive ROI seriously and this is my personal system of preparing my bets. I didn't mention handicapping; that's all done well in advance of planning the bets. I have my base handicap and I seldom stray from it, as the "think long, think wrong" axiom has proven true too many times in my history. I do my homework in the quiet of my kitchen and away from the bustle of the track and when I get to the track I can focus on the post parade and the tote board and not concern myself at all with handicapping.

My betting targets almost any time of the year involves Pick Three and Pick Fours; That said, I don't particularly like juvenile races, and the Juvenile Fillies on Friday and The Juvenile on Saturday are plum in the middle of Pick Fours. Another consideration in Breeders 'Cup races are the field sizes; I may need to go six deep to hit the Superfecta and the bets will be more expensive than I'd prefer. These two thoughts combined together make my decision easy; I'm skipping the horizontal bets next week and I'm going to stick to vertical targets, the Trifecta/Superfecta and the grand daddy of vertical betting, The Super High Five.

The Super High Five; There may only be one thing I daydream more about. It wasn't always this way. Earlier this year it wasn't even on my radar, that is until my Preakness post race analysis when I realized I had it cold. The bet paid almost $50,000, and I didn't place the bet. Ugh. I got some redemption on Arlington Millions Day when I won my first Super High Five Bet, and hitting it on Breeders' Cup weekend would be an accomplishment that I would treasure in my bettors resume.

The Super High Five is being offered for The Distaff (Ladies Classic)and the Classic.

My handicapping will be directed at the following;

The Filly and Mare Sprint (G1), The Filly and Mare Turf (G1), The Distaff (G1), The Dirt Mile (G1), The Turf (G1), The Mile (G1) and The Classic (G1). Seven races, five days of prep time left before I drive the 400 plus miles to Louisville. Let's get after it!

The Mile Grade 1 has thirteen pre-entrants and we'll study them all understanding some may not be in the starting gate next Saturday.

Byword (GB) is a five year old Juddmonte Farms runner trained by Andre Fabre.



3 wins in four ties at the distance and 7 wins in 14 starts over grass, 10 of 14 in the money. Winless in last two Grade 1 efforts, comes here off Grade 2 Qutar Prix Dollar.




Compliance Officer is trained by Bruce Brown for owner Thomas La Marca. The NY Bred 5 Year Old gelded son of Officer is 15 of 20 in the money on turf, 1 win in three starts at the turf mile, and has a career $409,000 earnings. Compliance Officer was claimed in May 2011 and has five straight wins but no graded stakes action.



Goldikova won't be mistaken for a NY State Bred. That said, he's a fine horse but this is a big step up.

Courageous Cat is the five year old son of Storm Cat, trained by Bill Mott. The chalk his last time out in the Woodbine Mile, nipped at the wire by Tullare the colt who's also entered here.



10 of 12 lifetime in the money over turf with six wins, 6 of 6 in the money at the distance with 3 wins and 2 places, 3 of 3 in 2011 in the money.

The Shoemaker Mile G1 July 2011



Trainer Mott wins 15% of his 2nd off 45-180 day layoffs and 20% of his 31-60 day layoffs. The horse appears to be training well.

What does Court Vision need to do to be retired? The Dale Roman's trained horse has had a rough 2011 and has only one win in last ten starts, the 2010 Woodbine Mile.

2 wins in 7 starts at the distance, winless in 4 tries at CD with a place and a show, including yielding turf Place by a neck in 2010 Turf Classic, losing to General Quarters.

I think it would take a reversal of fortune to see this old warrior in the top four.



Get Stormy is the 5 year old son of Stormy Atlantic and trained by Thomas Bush. The Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland includes Sidney's Candy and Gio Ponti.



10 wins in 25 turf starts and 8 wins/places out of 12 starts at the distance. 6 of 7 in the money in 2011 with back to back Grade 1 wins in April and May.

Here's the Baruch (G2) at SAR in August with Turallure over turf rated good. It's an extra furlong and the cut back may be good for him.



Gio Ponti; The six year old Christopher Clement trainee was struggling this year until winning the Shadwell Turf Mile in early October. A Place to Cape Blanco in the Arlington Millions, a Place to Cape Blanco in the Man O War in July at 1 3/8 miles, and a disappointing Show in the Manhattan. He went to Dubai and perhaps it just took him some time to recover. Unfortunately for Cape Blanco, he can't be here, I doubt Gio Ponti minds.

Clement wins 20% of his turf starts and 20% of his routes and Gio Ponti has earned over $6,000,000 lifetime. A real star.

Speaking of stars, Goldikova (Ire). An up and down year but her expectations are so high it's almost impossible for her to live up to them. Six grade one wins in last 10 starts, 14 wins in 19 tries at the distance, 19 of 19 at the distance in the money, 25 of 26 in the money over turf lifetime with 17 wins and $6,900,000 in earnings.

Qutar Prix de la Foret (G1) 2 October 2011; a head bob loss.



Just for fun, not much for homework purposes....



Jeranimo is the five year old son of Congaree. He's coming in for trainer Michael Bender(18% winner on 73 starts) off his career best Beyer in the Oak Tree Mile (G2) where he beat Mr. Commons, a race that I cannot find embeddable video for.

One win in three tries at a turf mile. 3 wins on Turf in 8 starts, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, 1 win in 7 starts in 2011. Most of the year, rather unimpressive. Here in the One Mile Arcadia (G2) he took a big late run to get up for Show.



He never fired in his next start, The Inglewood (G3), but came out of that and a well beaten Place in the G1 Eddie Read at 9 panels. Acclimation ran quite a race and Caracortado hasn't been impressive in this series but I digress.



Out of the Eddie Read, a dismal Pacific Classic (G1)and then the Oak Tree Mile. He's in much deeper waters here with his career $660,000 and six career wins in 22starts.

Mr. Commons would be oddly placed here if he starts; the 3 year old colt biggest win was a in a restricted stakes race, the Oceanside $112K. Was the beaten chalk to Jeranimo in the Oak Tree Mile. 4 of 4 in the money over turf with 2 wins, 1 win in 3 starts at the distance, 6 of 7 in the money in 2011. Started in the Preakness but didn't fire and also started Santa Anita Derby.

Very big step up to go here.

Sidney's Candy will be making his sixth start of 2011 and his fourth with Trainer Pletcher. His last race was the previously discussed Shadwell Turf Mile. Before that was a dud of a 7F race, the Forego, over dirt (great move...wished I was smart).



Just before that a good turf race, the Fourstar Dave (G2); Look for the grey, Turallure. :50 2/5ths opening 1/2 mile, ugh.



No wins in 3 starts at the distance over turf. 2 turf wins in 5 starts. He set the pace in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile before fading. Mixed feelings, liked him more in Sadler's barn, seems like he wasn't managed very dynamically for WinStar.

Strong Suit is trained by Richard Hannon for Qatar Bloodstock Ltd. The three year old son of Rahy campaigns in Europe and comes in off two Grade 2 wins at 7 furlongs, a straight and a right hander, over good turf. Three wins in last four. No left turn courses so far and only one try at 8 panels, the Grade 1 Prix Jean Prat, a show finish.





8 of 9 in the money over turf but winless at the distance and only one try. Are American turf runners that disrespected that its worth the airfare to send Strong Suit over? Well, respect is earned on the track.

Turallure has shown up in many videos here, impressive in almost all. Along with Get Stormy and Goldikova, only wins in the field at Churchill Downs. Training sharply at Keeneland. The 4 year old son of Wando has shown a very wicked late turn of foot for trainer Charles Lopresti. 2 wins at the distance in three starts and 9 of 11 in the money over grass.

And finally, Zoffany (Ire), Aidan O'Brien's 3 year old Dansili colt. No wins in three starts at the distance, with 2 Places. 9 of 12 in the money over turf with 5 wins. Never in contention was the running line in the Shadwell Turf Mile. His last euro effort, Prix Maurice de Gheest (G1) in August at 6.5 furlongs he was trounced. Last win was in August 2010, G1 Phoenix Stakes at six panels.

His claim to fame was staying close to Frankel in the St. James Stakes (G1) in June.



My inital thoughts are:

A Group: Turallure, Goldikova, Gio Ponti, Courageous Cat

B Group: Byword (GB) , Jeranimo, Sidney's Candy

C Group: Strong Suit, Zoffany (Ire) , Get Stormy (B?)

D Group: Court Vision, Compliance Officer, Mr. Commons (C?)

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 13, 2011: The Arlington Million Grade I

God gave me a big nose for a reason, but it isn't big enough: John Henry nips me at the wire but I get up for Show Money behind The Bart. The story of my life. I think I've digressed.

Welcome Friends to the Turk and Little Turk's handicap of the Arlington Million. I've been invited today to handicap one of the premier turf events in North America, the Grade I Arlington Million,for the Thorofan's Handicappers Corner. To those of you not familiar with The Thorofan, its an organization inspired by and serving the 29 million horse racing fans in America who deserve a voice.

Arlington Park is a pretty special place to me. I was living north of Chicago in 1985, serving in the United States Navy, when a fire swept through the track , destroying the old place. I joined the curious and the concerned that watched from the edge of the road. It's a wonderful new facility now, under appreciated in the big scheme of things, but just a completely fan-centric race day experience they offer and its one of this Turk's favorite places to visit.

Arlington Park installed a poly surface in 2007, which I don't play often, but when I do, I find it plays pretty fair. For me, the Arlington turf course is the draw. It's maintained immaculately, not like the grass at Soldier Field. The race falls in a nice place in the conditions book, a month or so after the classic distance Grade I turf affairs start happening, races like The Colonial Turf Cup,Arlington Park Handicap, The Man O' War and the United Nations,and it sets the winner up perfectly for The Breeders' Cup Turf. The race attracts some of the best turf horses in the America and the best second tier grass runners from Europe and the race is the cornerstone of Arlington Park's biggest day of the year. All good stuff.

Before I look at this year's field I need to understand what to expect the turf to be like: The course is currently listed as Yielding. The weather leading up to Saturday suggests that rain is possible. I'm leaning towards the course still being soft, possibly listed as good, but I expect it will play fair and not favor speed. You have to make a stand on what you think the conditions will be before you break down the runners. There are some great Twitter and Facebook feeds out there you can tap to get a real time feel for the truth. Take advantage of the new information when you can. On raceday make sure you check scratches and changes and the tote board is always something to keep your eye on so you don't invest too heavily when the odds aren't in your favor.

I also like to take a few minutes and review the past, which is often a window into the future. From the racecharts I've taken a quick peek at the last six editions.



Glean what you like from it, but I'm focused on the favorite has been taking Place money more often than not and that the winner is being identified as one of the top three by savvy horse players. It looks like Show is in play with the average Show horse was typically the fifth favorite of the punters. Only one chalk has one in the past six editions.

When you're looking at this race, or any race with foreign invaders, avoid assigning mythical powers to these animals; Just because they are from Europe don't assume they will dominate. Respect them, sure, get as much information on them as you can, but don't ascribe brilliance too quickly.





Again, I'm leaning towards slightly soft going and I'm going to discount front running speed carrying over distance. I see the pace being set by Mission Approved, Proceed Bee and Dean's Kitten possibly. Cape Blanco (IRE) will be pulled back and kept about 1 length back to the inside. A bunch of closers, lead by Gio Ponti will be poised to strike at the top of the straight.

Flaws: Every horse has flaws that can make you shy away. Gio Ponti hasn't won in awhile. Cape Blanco (Ire) has been anointed, but look at the running lines, very inconsistent and no reason to be so respectful of the expected chalk. Mission Approved is an honest runner who will give you the same effort every race. I like the training at Saratoga and I think the 7 YO is poised for a good year.

Man O' War /Good Turf/ July 9,2011



This can either be a good betting race or a dud. I don't see the longest prices winning or placing under almost any circumstances. I don't think the trifecta will pay that well with my base handicap so I'll consider superfecta or super high-5 and take a swing at the fences.

The base handicap is built and again it's built with certain turf conditions in mind and its built with the pace scenario keyed on Mission Approved. Any scratches from the pace players will force a reassessment. Pay attention to the scratches and changes, as well as the tote board, and use your base handicap to quickly work through your own value versus reward equations. Finally, only bet what you are prepared to lose.

Do your own handicapping and remember the past is prologue. Thanks again for the Thorofan for allowing me to entertain you. I'm hopeful my degenerate core audience will become members soon.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nominations Is In: January 22, 2011; The Fairgrounds Pick Three on Lecomte Day

The handsome winner of the Lecomte last year was Ron The Greek, who won from a field of ten that ultimately yielded no significant 3 YOs. The Turk and his sidekick, The Little Turk, are watching as many of the 3 YO preps as we can and if you have a chance, take a look at the 1st edition of the 2011 Derby Dozen Poll voted on by some really savvy people...and me.

Today we are greeted with the malady affecting tracks all over the United States, a small field in a stakes race. We won't let it bother us too much and just like a party, we won't worry about who isn't here, we'll just focus on who is here. It's important friends to know that you have no obligation to actually bet. You can handicap the races, watch the races, and not have "action plays". That said, we have a three stakes race sequence here that has a feel of wide openness and I'm going to take a run at it with a low risk Pick Three.

Let's get after it!

Fairgrounds Race Track: Race 8-9-10; First Post 4:42 ET



Fairgrounds isn't a track Turk plays often, nor is it one I've ever done well at. That's not a coincidence; It takes time to study the race charts, read the writings of the handicappers who do know the track best, study who the local big fish are, and there is only so much time in a day to recreational handicappers, so my strong advice is always to stick to just a handful of tracks and learn them well.

I'm ignoring my own advice, which I don't do here very often, because I had a hankering to play this sequence more than what else was available today. I'll go in armed with humility and slightly defensive and I'll save the bigger betting action for my base tracks: Gulfstream this time of year and more recently the new dirt surface of Santa Anita. Do you have a favorite track? There is no purer pleasure then to walk into your cathedral of choice and watch graded stakes action. About this time of year when it's 5 degrees F outside I start thinking about the lush green of the turf track at Arlington, the cheering crowd at Race 1 on opening day at Saratoga, or the buzz at the 1/16 pole when mighty Zenyatta was chasing down Blame at Churchill Downs. It's these moments when I realize how much I love horse racing and the people involved. A sport that's become irrelevant to most Americans being contested at the highest level by true sportsmen and women. I think I digressed!

Before I get back on target, I'd be remiss to not say how my heart broke at the news of Miesque passing away. Horses like Miesque make me feel my own time on earth passing away, as it seems like yesterday to me watching her Breeders' Cup Mile wins in 1987 and 1988.

The main track yesterday was listed as fast and the turf track was listed as yielding. Looking at the weather it should be dry but not sure how dry the track will get so pay closer attention as the time draws near.

In Race 8, The Silverbulletday, an eight horse field of 3 YO fillies compete at 1 mile and 40 yards on the dirt. The pace scenario is hard to gage, but I expect Seans Silverdancer will strike the lead early and three good off the pace closers will set up, Chloe Kate, Bouquet Booth and Aide. Of those three, I like Bouquet Booth the best: A Grade III winner, 4 of 4 lifetime in the money and training sharply at FG since racing last in late November. The barn wins 225 of races off this length layoff and the Margolis/Bridgmohan combination wins 45% of the time together at FG. This isn't a slam dunk, maybe not even in the to three, but he represents a legitimate winner who won't be the chalk. The likely chalk is Aide, with very lofty connections and one of my favorite sires, Arch. Clearly talented, with a nearly 20 length victory one race back, and with Gomez up for Albert Stall, this filly will attract alot of betting action. Clearly we are hoping she'll lose this one to enhance the pick three payout.

Daisy Devine won the last time out to pay $80.20. The lightly raced daughter of Kafwain can't be expected to win again at those type of odds, and I think we'll see her hit the ticket. Little Miss Holly has improving Beyers and has been competitive and don't discount on the exotics Ambient who ran strongly on a tiring yielding turf at one mile last time out.

In Race 9, a 1 1/16 mile affair on the turf for older runners, Gran Estreno (ARG) has a good chance to be the chalk at post time and I think he's rather deserving; The 8 YO has strong Beyers, a nice late race turn of foot, and solid FG connections with Trainer Stidham clipping along at 29% and Stidham/Napravnik winning 29% of 28 starts together here. 10 wins in last 21 tries for Argentinian bred.

Bill Mott's Midnight Mischief with Theriot up, comes in after faltering as the tepid chalk in a grade III in December. The 5 YO Medaglia d'Oro horse is 3 of his last 11 and has only one win on turf in six tries with a puny Tomlinson rating.

Strike Again, a Smart Strike on the Dam's side and a son of Dixie Union, is 5 of 15 overall, 5 of 14 on the turf and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance. His worst efforts have been on turf less than firm.

Red Strike is a four yeas old gelding from Smart Strike, lightly raced and starting for only the 4th time. Throw the sloppy off the turf last race out and I think you may be looking at the best chance of real value in the Pick Three and any inner race betting.

And finally in The Lecomte I think there are three legitimate chances to win and the uncertainty will hopefully make a decent betting race of this paltry field. Most likely the least of the three to be loved by the bettors is Action Ready. The son of More Than Ready makes a turf to dirt switch, something Bret Calhoun pulls off a staggering 30% of the time with 83 tries. Most of Calhoun's stats are off the hook and he's approaching supertrainer status on Dirt with 26% and now just needs to improve his 16% graded stakes wins. I think he's improving and he's fresh into his race cycle with today being his third effort since December 1st. Lots of bettors will gravitate to Justin Phillips. The erratic last race winner adds blinkers, which Asmussen wins 26% of the time. I took Calhoun to task for his Graded Stakes win percentage and was surprised to see this barn down to 12%. Pants on Fire comes in of two nice efforts, discount if you wish for where they were. I'm discounting at my own peril.

And last Monday's Martin Luther King Day efforts served the purpose and they are deconstructed below.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 19, 2010; The Woodbine Mile and Late Pick Three including the Northern Dancer

The Turk has been a big fan of the Woodbine Mile since its inception. The race, run over the The outermost E. P. Taylor turf course is 1 1/2 miles long with a chute allowing races of 1 1/8 miles to be run around one turn. The Taylor turf course and the main dirt course at Belmont are the only mile-and-a-half layouts in North American thoroughbred racing. You need to have a basic understanding of the courses as in many locations a second turn would have been required and that changes the dynamics. In this internet thingy day and age this information is a search browser trip away. Woodbine is the Turk's second favorite turf course in North America, and just like my favorite, Arlington, it's saddled with fake dirt for the main track, a turn off that I struggle to get by. No matter, today is one of the great days at Woodbine, and the Mile and The Northern Dancer, both Grade I's, are premier events. The fields are strong and the handicapping was really difficult, so let's just throw it out on the table and see what we got!

Woodbine Race Track Races 8-9-10; The Late Pick Three with the Grade I Northern Dancer and the Grade I Woodbine Mile, post time of Race 8 is 4:34 ET.


As always, check for scratches/changes, weather (and go back a few days for turf events) and monitor the tote board as the day goes on.

The Pick Three kicks off at 4:34 ET with the Northern Dancer. Marshside was entered all over the place this summer before finally shipping into Woodbine to take the Grade II Sky Classic. It was masterful work inside the conditions book by Trainer Drysdale. I like him here as well but he won't be without strong challengers and this is a good race to look for value. I'll be taking my base handicap and looking at the tote board before post. If I'm backing a horse second or third who is the third-fifth favorite with the bettors and the horse is > 6-1, I'm looking for a win bet to be defensive with. I like Memorial Maniac, a five time loser at this distance to be a real value play. Spice Route is very strong and I can never tell what to make of Expansion, with a wild card being Redwood (GB) who seems to run better RH than LH.

I'm going to keep the risk low on the Pick Three. I'll most likely single or provide just a second cover with value in the Northern Dancer.

The Allowance Race contains an interesting collection of even horses and I'll cover as many as four here, Thunderball, Lady's First Cat, Perfect Loch, and a value pick in his second career start, Summanus, son of Thunder Gulch who will have to shock while adding more distance. There will be some safe value mixed in as well with Casual Dude, Smart Sky, Shellback and Spirit Flying all very capable. Gambling ain't always going to be easy and often you will be perplexed: Build your handicap and live with it, the post race analysis is the tool you use to make adjustments in future base handicaps.

For the main event, the picture for this handicapper is no cleaner. I'm backing Famous Name for no reason other than I had to many nicks against the other runners and perhaps my lack of knowledge with him gave him an unfair advantage. It's quite possible. I think the Usual Q.T. is a nifty horse for Trainer Cassidy, winning 8 of 16 career starts including some of the biggest California turf events and he's 5 of 5 at the distance. No rational reason to downgrade him except I'm not sure he'll love the course and that's what I'm banking on. That said, Grand Adventure and Smokey Fire will fire well on this course and Victor's Cry seems fresh and primed. Trainer Goldberg, a 26% winner, brings in Straight Story with Maragh up, and is more than capable of hitting the board.

As a handicapper, I like to be tested with big, competitive fields. As a gambler, I prefer to pick softer targets, and as a blogger I'm just going to do my best with the marks that I'm interested in. Have fun with it. I'll be betting safely within the races, hunting for value, while I'll most likely keep the pick three to $2 2 picks X 4 picks X 2 Picks $32. I'd actually like to go a bit lower.

Have Fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: May 22, 2010: The Arlington Park Pick Three including the American Guineas and Arlington Classic

The Turk loves the Arlington Turf Course. It doesn't mean he plays it well, but as a horse racing fan, I love the course and the track itself. I've had an affinity for Arlington since I was a young man in the US Navy. I was living close to Arlington in 1985 when a small fire turned into a big fire and devastated the place. Arlington wasn't on my radar of understanding at that point but since then it never left. I vacationed there last summer and enjoyed myself very much and I'll be in paddock smoking a cigar and picking ponies on Sunday June 13. With that said, it's time I jumped in and played some races. My handicap is based on a weather forecast that shows the rain stopping last night and the races staying on the grass. If Race 8 is off the turf, I'll drop the Pick Three and just bet Race 9 and 10. Let's get it on!


Arlington Park Pick Three Race 8 - Race 9 - Race 10 (Google Doc Spreadsheet inserted)



Race 8, a $35,000 claimer isn't that compelling but it does seem clear that four of the horses are superior on paper, and I'm backing Maneke, with 8 turf wins, 2 at Arlington, to win the race, and if he falters Live from Appollo, Trying Brian and Hapman should be there.

Race 9 and 10 I'm going to play per my base handicaps unless there are major defections or the races come off turf. I'll be looking at 10 cent Supers with six horse combinations and keeping the best below $24. Keep your eye on Track Conditions and Scratches.

Have fun, Turk Out!