The Nomination Is in: The G2 Bowling Green and Jim Dandy and first weekend recap

Sadlers' Joy ar SAR: (c) NYRA/Chelsea Durand/Adam Coglianese Photography

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  To those that know me, welcome back and to any new readers, thank you for visiting.  The Turk Blog is in our tenth year of handicapping Graded Stakes Racing in the United States and Canada.  I'm a handicapper first and a bettor second.  I don't consider myself a "tout", quite frankly hate the term, and if my 30+ years of handicapping has taught me anything, it has been to stay humble.

My primary target today is a Pick 3 beginning with Race 8, the G1 Vanderbilt Stakes.  I may start that P3 with Race 9, the G2 Bowling Green and end it with an OC Turf race with a big field instead of trying to read the tea leafs on the Vanderbilt.  Regardless, my focus early is on the Bowling Green and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, so let's get after it!

I honestly never understood how people could handicap at the track.  After taking a course a few semesters ago on how people learn, I realized that my process requires quiet.  I get up early and handicap with a cup of coffee and a very quiet house and I generally do pretty well.  I wish I could be that guy in Section K of the Clubhouse scribbling away but it's not.  Know thyself!  I think I know myself pretty well, and boy do I love gutty and honest turf runners like Sadlers' Joy pictured above. I don't know if he'll win or not, but I know he'll show up and contest the route of grass.







Sadlers' Joy is 3 of 4 in the money at SAR, 3 of 4 in the money in 2018, 66% of the time in the money over turf and 71% of the time in the money at this distance.  He'll be dragging behind the pace before his speed comes with a very late turn of foot.  Trip is so key.  Castellano is up while Leparoux is on the long shot Glorious Empire (Ire).  Typical effort seen below in the Manhattan G1.

Money Multiplier finishes in Place, alot.  33% Place Finisher, 65% lifetime in the money.  Trainer Chad Brown with I. Ortiz, up, are 28% winners at SAR and Brown is a 27% Turf winner.  Ok, not stunning effort in the United Nations I posted below.

Hi Happy (Arg) has been a fun horse to watch this year.  4 of 4 in the money in 2018.  He'll be the one that Sadlers' Joy will have to race past if he wants to win.  Take a look at him repulsing Sadler's Joy in the G1 ManOWar below.

I like Bigger Picture and Highland Sky with late speed to possibly get into the ticket.  It's hard to not like a Mott horse but 4 YO Channel Maker I need to see more from but no denying his late speed either.


G1 United Nations





G1 Manhattan





G1 ManOWar en Espanol for Hi Happy (Arg)






In the Jim Dandy we are faced with a five horse field, of which 50% odds of winning have been placed on the 5 horse Vino Rosso.  I'm feeling contrarian and I'm making a case of Mark Casse's Flameaway.  Watch him crumble badly here at the top of the stretch.


The G3 Ohio Derby




This is a good horse, a Scat Daddy Ontario Bred. Reride should be the only other early speed.

Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial and is a solid Curlin, but 1-1 odds? Let's look at the Tampa Derby where he finished  up the track from the Place finisher, Flameaway.





I take nothing away from Vino Rosso, he didn't set his own odds, Less experienced players may want to just single Vino Rosso in a multi race exotic horizontal bet.  I'm less interested in winning small as I am in risking small to make big.  I'll be curious where his odds are at post time. 

Another Curlin, Tenfold should not be completely discounted. 


I'll be building bets later today and you'll find my thoughts on Twitter later (you can find me on the link in the right header of my blog). 

Last week's Blog Post I featured just two races, the Diana and the CCA Oaks. 

While I "won" both bets, I hunted for value in the CCA Oaks and didn't get it.  On $16 wagered I returned $55.60 for a $39.60 profit. 

The G1 Diana at SAR 7/21/18:  DRF PDF Chart

I really like that Sistercharlie (Ire) and so did the bettors.  It was me being less concerned about a small wager return or a loss and inserting Ultra Brat and Hawkmoor, the 4th and 5th horses in my handicap, to finish in the Place exacta spot that made the bet.  Once you reach that place as a gambler that you'll sacrifice capital for larger strikes you'll....get humbled back or go broke!  Always bet within your means.

G1 CCA Oaks at SAR 7/22; DRF PDF Chart

I'd like to wish Justify a happy retirement as well.  I've now been alive for 5 Triple Crown Winners and it's nice that I most likely will never have a time in my life again where there are no living Triple Crown winners, as that was a bit depressing.  I wagered $556 in the Triple Crown Season on almost no handicapping as I was deep into my final semester of school and I am also wildly busy at work.  I returned $857.25 for a $301 profit.  While not a great ROI, I considered it easy money.  My only losing bet was a Preakness bet against Justify.  Like I said, I'd rather lose now and then but take swings at long balls because if I would have connected that would have been a four figure payout. 

Turk's Twin Spires Account Bet log: Triple Crown 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nominations are In: The Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 1 CCA Oaks at Saratoga

Dacita winning the Diana in 2016; Photo NYRA

Welcome friends to the Turk and the (now not so) Little Turk blog, now in our eleventh season of blogging about thoroughbred horses.  To anyone that knows The Turk, they know that he likes Turf and he likes older runners.  Call me old fashioned.  I got my start in handicapping in 1986.  I was already a horse racing fan, growing up around family members like my dear Aunt Rosie who loved the ponies.  In 1986 I found myself living in Saratoga Springs on Jumel Place, a short walk from the track, and one day I grabbed the form and....had no idea what I was doing.  In Turk fashion, I read, I read, and I read a bit more to learn from others what I didn't know myself.  My handicapping combines elements of Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz and Robert J. Summers, The Buffalo News "Happy Handicapper", Rest in Peace.

 I like to think of my handicapping as a derivative of each of these gentleman handicappers, clumped together into Turk style.  I like data.  I watch video, I crunch fractional split times, and my greatest strength is combining good handicapping with solid betting strategy.  I haven't blogged much in 2018 as I was finishing an MBA.  My MBA armed me with all kinds of new techniques to know that these race track investments are highly speculative.  You can say you want to scratch out a 15% ROI, but the track smacks that type of talk out of you quickly.  I ride streaks of 500% ROIs and streaks of -500% ROI's.  It happens.  I'm happy to break even, scratch out a small profit, because for me, I'm here for the relaxation it brings me and the thrill of the animals. I'm here for mares like Dacita, pictured above, a beautiful Beverly D G1 winner and Scat Daddy daughter, winning the Diana in 2016 for Chad Brown, looking to win this race for a third straight year, which I think he has a great shot at today.

I've featured the Diana for today and the CCA Oaks for tomorrow at the Spa.  Let's get after it!





You can find the track conditions, scratches and changes and equipment changes for NYRA/Saratoga here.  Today looks bone dry BUT beginning later tonight and it looks like tomorrow will be wet.  You'll find the Saratoga Springs hour by hour weather here.

With a seven horse field in the Diana, my first thought is I have two of Chad Brown's three entries one-two with Sistercharlie and A Raving Beauty, with Brendan Walsh's 4 YO 2X Saratoga winner Proctor's Ledge the best upset candidate.

Sistercharlie (Ire) has the best Timeform US Pace Fig late at 131.  6 of 7 in the money on Turf and 7 of 8 in the money lifetime.  Brown is 27% over a route of grass.  Lost by a head last time out to Fourstar Crook in the G2 New York.  Sistercharlie was 28 lengths back, yes 28 lengths and was coming late. With 1/8 less, with this cutback she'll need to be closer, obviously!  You have to watch this video.






German bred A Raving Beauty is a 5 YO Mastercraftsman (Ire).  Ortiz and Brown are 29% winners together.  Two wins in two starts in North America.  Edged Proctor's Ledge in the G1 Just a Game in early June.




I think Proctor's Ledge likes softer grass than she'll find today with her last two wins over good turf and her last win over firm turf six starts back.

Ultra Brat comes in off a win over soft turf in the Galorette G3 at Pimlico.




The 5 YO Uncle Mo Motion trained runner is 3 of 4 in the money in 2018.

Hawksmoor (Ire) in those  Barbaro silks of Lael Stables has the best Timeform US early pace fig at 114.  Trained by Arnauld Delacour, if you're looking for a price this isn't a bad one.

I'm going to keep it simple with a $2 Exacta 1-(7 and 5) (Sistercharlie over Hawksmoor and Ultrabrat) for $4.

A rather small 5 filly field will challenge each other in Sunday's Grade 1 CCA Oaks G1.  Just because, let's go off on a tangent and watch Ruffian set the race record when it was a 1 1/2 mile race at Belmont. 1975.  I was 9. I looked forward to reading Sports Illustrated every week.  I think it was a good way to live, but hard to beat the instant information age 9 YO's live in now.




Midnight Bisou, a Midnight Lute, is my tepid chalk.  A big win under big money Mike Smith in the Grade 2 Mother Goose last time out.  A 4 horse affair.




Monomoy Girl will be the post time favorite, of this I am sure.  7 win sin 8 starts and 8 of 8 in the Money lifetime for the Kentucky Oaks winner. Dominant that day.



I like Eskimo Kisses late speed and Chocolate Martini is a solid, not spectacular filly.  Gio Game shouldn't be a factor. 

$2 Exacta Box:  2-4-3 for $12. 

I handicapped the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar only to be typing this blog and have at least 4 horses scratch in a 10 horse field, including Accelerate.  Yawn. 

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The G1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs under the lights

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  The Turk has taken a handicappers holiday for most of 2018 while he was finishing up a Master's Degree in Finance.  The course work has mostly been used to analyze my poor betting capital allocations, but I'm back, and happily this first blog post back is for The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner.  Good People, Good Organization and hopefully good returns on investment.

The Turk has been a horse racing fan since Seattle Slew's Triple Crown run of 1977 when I was eleven years old.  Like many boy's my age, Sports Illustrated and ABC's Wide World of Sports were my windows into the sporting world, and horse racing was still a high profile major sport.  It's been great to see the excitement Justify and American Pharoah have brought to the sport, a sport that desperately needs more good marketing.  Churchill Downs night time racing is something I enjoy very much and while I know this 51 year old isn't exactly a demographic priority, I appreciate Saturday night racing and wagering and wish there was more quality nights like this in the summer.  

Let's get after this!

The weather on Friday and Saturday looks pretty dry, so let's assume a fast dry track.

Backyard Heaven, a lightly raced 4 YO Tizway colt, trained by Chad Brown, looked awfully impressive in dispatching Always Dreaming and a good field in the Grade 2 Alysheba here at CD on Kentucky Derby Day.  He's got excellent tactical speed and I'm singling him, keying all my thoughts on his continued brilliance.  You have to wonder what this win would mean and how Trainer Brown would point him afterwards, with the Breeders' Cup looming at Churchill Downs in five months. 

He is facing a deep and talented field: Churchill local Honorable Duty breaks from the 1 gate and will need his early speed to gain position.  The 6 YO gelded son of Distorted Humor is 6 of 8 in the money at CD and 9 of 11 in the money over fast dirt.  Trainer Brendan Walsh and rider Lanerie are clipping along at a 30% win rate with 46 mounts this year.   Place in last years edition of this race.

Irish War Cry, 4 YO Curlin, comes in off a driving win in the Pimlico Special in the slop where he has a 421 Tomlinson. It was his first win six starts after his Wood Memorial.   I'm not sold.  

Pavel, the 4 YO enigmatic Creative Cause, campaigned by the Reddam Team of Doug O'Neill with Gutierrez up, is too talented to overlook.  A well beaten fourth in Dubai in March followed by a well beaten fourth in the Gold Cup G1 at Santa Anita three weeks ago, breaking at the top of the stretch under the pressure of fast fractions.  The distance and class cutback won't hurt but I need to see more consistency before considering him to win races.  

Looking at Lee, who's arguable best performance was a lagging Place to Always Dreaming in last year's Kentucky Derby, comes in off his first win, a 62K OC N2X class drop.  I grouped him with a couple of 8 YO geldings, Hawaakom and Matrooh.  They are both hard knocking veterans who can easily be in the money, especially Hawaakom with his very late speed.  

Pletcher's uncoupled Uncle Mojo and fan favorite Patch round out the field and I've tossed them both from contention at my own risk.  

So what to do with this?  As I said, I see Backyard Heaven as a heavy favorite and I'm singling him on all my tickets.

Exacta:  $2 Bet 6 OVER 1-3-5  for $6.   I'd expect the 1-3-5 will all be >6-1 and should easily return my opportunity cost.  

Trifecta:  $2 Bet  6 OVER 1-3-8-9 OVER 1-3-5-7-8-9 for $40.  Dropping the 7 altogether takes the bet to $32.

Good news:  The handicapping holiday refreshed both me and my love of the game.  The bad news:  I'm a bit rusty, so no betting the mortgage on my ramblings.

Good luck, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Hal's Hope Grade 3 at Gulfstream Park

Out of the Handicapper Hibernation

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our tenth year of providing free handicapping to people who never asked for it.  Before I start to blather, I'd like to thank the good folks at The Thorofan and the The Thorofan Handicappers Corner for welcoming me today as guest handicapper.

What's with the bear?  I like to take a siesta from handicapping every year, usually just after the Clark Handicap when Churchill's late year season is wrapping up.  This past year I shut it down right after the Breeders' Cup.  I have always found these extended handicapper holiday's helpful to me to clear my mind and reset.  I haven't a clue who's on the Kentucky Derby trail, didn't pay any attention to the Pegasus World Cup, nothing, no racing, no handicapping, no blogging.  I do indeed feel fresh and ready to get back after it.  I'm not much of a young 3 YO gambler, I prefer the handicap division with older horses and today's Hal's Hope, 1 Mile over Dirt for 4 Year Olds and Up fills the bill.

Let's get after it!

This is obviously not peak racing season. This is a time of the year where trainers are just shaking the farm rest out of the their handicap division, while others, the journeyman horses, are just running and can only dream about a long romp in a pasture.  My ROI in early season is so-so, especially when I try to get fancy.  I will not be getting fancy here.

The weather may be wet Saturday and it bears watching.  You can find the scratches and changes and track conditions by following this link.  The Gulfstream website was clearly not set up for horseplayers, it is a messy jumble.

I don't see this race as very complex:  There is a clear line of quality runners that are on the outskirts, but in the Grade 1 conversation, and then a few that barely belong in graded stakes competition.  

As my chart shows, I think you can throw a blanket over the likelihood that Malagacy, Send It In or Economic Model can win.  While the odds are similar, I do however like them in the order I listed.

Malagacy had a long break after leaving the Derby Trail in April last year. This is his second off the long break, something Pletcher wins 17% of the time. He'll be very early speed and it's just a question if he can carry.  

Send It In is off a break since last April and this is his first start, something Pletcher is actually 33% good at  in 87 tries.  The six year old Big Brown New York Bred is 14 of 15 on Fast Dirt in the money.  Expect him on the ticket.

Trainer Chad Brown brings the inconsistent 5 YO Economic Model in off a long layoff since October, something Brown wins 28% of the time on 160 tries.  It's really staggering Brown's stat's by the way:  30% winner on 202 tries Won Last Start, 26% of Routes on 652 tries.  

Just below that top group is Irish War Cry, Derby Trail darling on the shelf since a dull PA Derby in September.  Motion is a deliberate trainer, but this is his backyard and I think this is just a tune up with low expectations other than a good run. I need to see something first, but class alone makes him dangerous from Place down.  

Trainer Donna Green has no wins in 4 tries at Graded Stakes in past year and her runner Conquest Big E will be big early pace but should falter to better runners late.  Should.  Show or 4th not unreasonable if hunting value.

The gelded Street Sense 5 YO, Tower of Texas goes on a Turf to Dirt switch for Roger Attfield which feels like an unsure test.  Where he finishes, your guess is as good as mine.

As I said, nothing fancy for me this time of year.  I'll be looking at Exacta's built off my base handicap and I'll use the Tote Board to help me build a bet worth betting.  I'm thinking no more than 5 separate $2 combinations for $10 total and all of them with a 4-1 or better Tote Board Post Time odds on top.  

Have fun with the races friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Turf

Highland Reel (Ire)- Jesse Caris, Eclipse Sportswire

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  Friends, I'm a handicapper and gambler first and blogger second, and its days like today when I'm handicapping a lot of races with a bunch of racetrack capital in play that the needle moves more towards degenerate and less towards writer.  I wanted to at least blog my full thoughts about one race before I get lost in the gambling action and I choose one of the harder mysteries for players, the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf.  What makes it hard?  Usually a very big field of outstanding Euro invaders along with the best in the division from North America.  It's complicated by Euros that mostly run on softer ground, speed figs that don't align Beyer's and pace projections that can be challenging to predict.  I find the complexity of the issues the fun part and armed with two sets of Past Performances, a US Timeform and a DRF Formulator, I try to tackle this one head on.  Let's get it on!





I'm looking to the best from North America this year, Beach Patrol, as my chalk.  Chad Brown has Rosario up again (29% winners) and they have won two straight, including last time out Belmont Turf Classic G1 and the Arlington Million G1 before that.  I love the 4 YO's drive and acceleration.






I see little difference in my next group.  Ulysses (Ire) is a very classy 4 YO Galileo (Ire) son with impressive Sir Michael Stoute training and Dettori, up.  I expect he will be the chalk:  6 of 6 in the money in 2017 with $2.2 MM in earnings.  His Juddmonte International G1 win in late August was impressive.



Hunt (Ire) I have more forward that I possibly should have him but I love his two summer 2017 Del Mar Grade 2 wins.  No, he didn't really beat anyone in either win.  I did like Itsinthe post (Fr) in the Del Mar Handicap.





Highland Reel (Ire) and Oscar Performance make up my next grouping.  Highland Reel (Ire) is the defending champ for Trainer Aidan O'Brien, and his last strong performance was Prince of Wales Stakes G1 in June.



Oscar Performance is 4 of 6 in the money in 2017 with $1.1 MM in earnings.  6 wins in 10 turf starts but winless at the distance in only 1 try.  I don't like 3 YO's in this spot.

Fanciful Angel and Sadler's Joy have nice late turns of foot and should be moving forward near the end of the race.  Decorated Knight and Bigger Picture round out my contenders to hit the board.

Have fun with it friends.  Good luck with the gambling.

Turk Out!


I'd be remiss to not remember George Washington, who died at the end of the Breeders' Cup Classic 10 years ago. Gorgeous George was one of my all time favorites and it bothered me to see him brought out of retirement and then run over that sloppy course.  He deserved better.  Rest in Peace George.

George Washington as I want to remember him

Post Race Analysis of the Maryland Million Classic

Bonus Points

Welcome Friends to The Turk and The Little Turk Blog.

This past weekend's handicap of the Maryland Million Classic was pretty spot on and produced $695.80 on Trifecta and Exacta wins and unfortunately I left a very winable $627.50 Superfecta in the register.

As I said pre race, I mostly assembled value exactas around my base handicap, focusing on Ghost Bay, Clubman or Southside Warrior for value and Bonus Points taking the wire late.

It was a good read of the field on my part, especially when I announced I was very confused, mostly because of my first attempt to handicap using Timeform US PP's.  I will admit I am intrigued by them, but I was very out of my comfort zone and ended up buying a DRF Formulator PP as well.  I guess I jacked up the takeout from my own pocket buying two PPs for one race!

Pace/Class/Current Form.  That was the decoder ring for this race.










This was a nice handicapping day that provided my mind lots of good race puzzles to solve.  I've been on a gambling sabbatical since mid September so the reawakening of my red pen was planned and now it's onto the Breeders' Cup!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Maryland Million Classic $125K

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, a race handicapping and gambling venture now in our 9th year with well over 600 blog postings to our credit.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts on the Maryland Million Classic, a $125,000 Stakes race restricted to horses sired by a Maryland standing stud.

That dapper gentleman pictured is Jim McKay, a legendary broadcaster,  horse racing owner and fan.  Mr. McKay was inspired by the first Breeders' Cup to hold an event similar in Maryland focusing on Maryland's breeding.  It's hard for me to believe (maybe accept) that Jim McKay has been gone from us since 2008.  He was a big part of my childhood, a voice that was calming, passionate, credible and likable.  It was a different era in sports, perhaps a more naive era, arguably a more enjoyable time, when sports were a release, a purer pleasure.  A time when boxing and horse racing were still relevant.  The Turk digresses, but at 50 something I think I have enough depth of perspective to say that the commercialization of sports, the politicization of sports, the marginalization of horse racing, have all left me waxing poetic for a bygone time, when men like Jim McKay came into our house to educate, inform and inspire us.

I've been handicapping for a long time.  I took red pen to the Form for the first time in 1986, 31 years ago.  I've been using DRF Formulator PPs for the past several years but today's race was the first race I've handicapped using Timeform US PPs.  Working with both pieces of information was overwhelming in many ways, perhaps information overload best describes it.  I still lack a feel for the speedfigs and the pace adjusted speedfigs of Timeform, but as an information handicapper I was quite impressed.  I also liked how I could add notes to each runner, as well as identify where I thought each horse might slot, win-place-show-toss.  I'm using the next few months to experiment with tools like Timeform US and Thorograph.  I'm a life long learner, and while I have a very comfortable comfort zone with DRF products,  I'm committed to looking at my methods and tools as I take my craft to the next level.

My craft?  I don't have a clue about today's race.  Maybe it was the PP info overload, maybe it's the parity of class and quality in the 12 horse field, but I am not afraid to say I'm a bit stumped.  Let's get after this and maybe through typing clarity will grace my thoughts.

Right off the bat I liked how the first quarter pacing was laid out for me before I even had to dive into the PPs.  You can also see in the screen capture "My Picks" which saved me scribbling them out later.

I'm backing a closer, Bonus Points, to win.  The 3 YO Pletcher trainee has been running in graded stakes company all year, hitting the board three times in 8 starts.  I think he will have plenty of speed to target and the one I think he'll be taking late is John Jones. Making a turf to Dirt switch, the 5 YO gelding has 7 wins in 13 Laurel Park starts and is a pretty consistent effort horse.

I think the more interesting group of horses are my next three: Ghost Bay, Clubman and Southside Warrior.  I think I could have made a good case for any of them to win-place.  Ghost Bay is another deep closer whereas Clubman and Southside Warrior should be racing mid-pack and steady.  Southside Warrior has declining Beyer Speed Figures over past three races (90/84/75) and while the pace adjusted figs illustrated the same decline, it did not appear as severe.  I'm intrigued at the price.  Clubman put up a 5f bullet :59 3/5ths on October 13 and has raced well at Laurel, 6 of 8 in the money and 7 of 9 in the money over fast dirt for the 3 YO.

Admirals War Chest and Jerandson round out my potential board hitters.  Admirals War Chest will go to the front, but I'm gambling the 6 YO wont be able to stay there and there are some quality closers entered.  The two time champ will get sentimental betting interest but I'm dubious.




Jerandson goes blinkers off for Trainer Pletcher (24% wins on 34 blinker off races) but the three year old so far hasn't flashed much speed.  I think a very minor prize, if anything.

I think I'll be looking to build Exacta Combinations using some of the longer prices on the board and in my handicap.  The weather should be good with no rain so we should assume a fast track.  I'm going to use some combinations of 5-2-11-9-12-1-3.  I won't box: That's a $1 Exacta for $42.  I'll use the toteboard and piece together no more than 8-10 $2 bets for $20 of betting interest with Ghost Bay-Clubman and Southside Warrior mixed with others from the group.

Have fun with it friends and enjoy the Maryland Racing Showcase.

Turk Out!