Thursday, June 17, 2021
The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita
Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk blog, now in our fourteenth year of writing handicaps. The Turk would like to thank the good people at The Thorfan for the opportunity to bring my thoughts to you. The Turk took a break from racing when the pandemic came, and I'm only coming out of it now to focus on the sumnmer and fall turf racing circuit. When something doesn't make you happy anymore, you need to let it go. I'm not sure that the races make me happy anymore. I love the horses, I love the sport, the humans and the business of horse racing I have a deep dislike of. The situation surrounding Arlington Race Track, my favorite North American turf venue, and the pathetic state of Illinois racing, put me in a very sour mood. If there is a future for me to stay in this sport, I have to get past the heartbreak that the demolition of Hollywood Park, and potentially Arlington, would bring to me. I'm trying.
The Santa Anita Turf Chute is at least one new innovative idea that I can get behind in racing. The Chute gives a beautiful sweeping downhill 6 1/2 furlongs before crossing the dirt and opening up to longer distances. Today's handicap, the marathon 1 3/4 mile Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano gives us the full downhill and the full turf oval. The only downside to me is field size, with only six scheduled to go in Saturday's 11th and final race of the day, a 9:29 ET start. No amount of innovation can cover up the smaller field sizes that takes away upside in turf race investing. Anyways, I've attached a link to an article that lays out how the betting has gone on the chute through asmall sampole size. Lets get after this!
Generally I'd post recent race video of the horses competing against each other at relevant distances. This is such an odd ball, and the longer chute is so new, I'm not going to bother. My handicap also didn't identify overlays as compared to the track handicapper or what I suspect the public and the tote board will assign as fair odds. So, what to do with this? Quite frankly, I'd pass on betting this race. I don't believe in action betting which is the equivelant of playing squares on the Big Game or Bingo. If I absolutly wanted to play it, and the purpose of this blog is to play the ponies, then I would clearly define my bet limit and I'd look at some interesting angle. That's the downside of the small field: Where would an interesting angle come from? Acclimate is 35.7% win odds Ward n' Jerry and Red King 28.6% each: 92.9% of the morning line odds of 129% (takeout/breakage/yada yada) 72% of the win potential is in these three. In my fair odds, it's 70 of 100%. The reality is some combination of these three in a boxed exacta is the most likely winning ticket, but a $2 dollar, 3 horse exacta box is $12, and the take would harly justify the risk. I'm instead going to put 3 over Acclimate, a $2 dollar Bet for $6 investment: Astronaut, Pilar Mountain (Ire) or Lure Him In over Acclimate. I'd rather lose $6 in this case than be conservative and have a poor risk-reward proposition.
Have fun with it friends! Turk Out
Sunday, August 23, 2020
Post Race Results for Fourstardave and the 52 Bets in 52 Weeks challenge resumes
It's the age old saying, is it better to be lucky or skilled? In my experience at the track, skill gets you break even and luck brings you an ROI with boasting about.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. We started 2020 with the intention of blogging every week and having a 52 Bets in 52 Weeks series of posts. We made it to the end of February before, in this order, my father in law died, the quarantine started and life came to halt, and my father died. When horse racing did return, and when I came out of the fog I was in personally, the world was seen differently by me.
The lack of fans at the track doesn't bother me, but the rhythm of the racing season is ajar. Coupled with a sense of my own mortality, I wasn't sure if this blog, started in a different time and different place, September 2008, was worth continuing.
The reality is that almost no one reads it anymore. My traffic was never great, and it's abysmal now. When people did read blogs, mine wasn't good enough, or my writing not crisp enough to garner regular readers. I soldiered on because I never started this blog for any reason other than to share my insights into the game of handicapping and betting with anyone interested. While the world is different, and my priorities for that matter also, I still like the challenge of betting the ponies and I continue to be good at it. I may not have much charisma as a turf writer, but I have always done a good job picking winners, be it superfectas in the old days, but over the last few years, the exacta near exclusively.
I handicapped the Fourstardave and was struck by how good the field was. For the first time in a very long time I almost didn't toss any runners, and only after some hand wringing did I toss the Show horse, Casa Creed, a Mott horse who at 4 YO I thought was too slow to be with this group. I didn't particularly love recent form, although training nicely at SAR, but last year over this course he put up a 1.33.72 in the Hall of Fame G2. This one was won in 1:33.32. I just thought there was too much in front of him, but I did notice he was 5th on the tote board, just a bit better than the returning last year winner, Got Stormy.
Anyways, in the blog post I was clear that I wasn't interested in betting short paying favorites and I said I'd be inclined to $2 Bet Halladay and Got Stormy OVER Raging Bull, Without Parole and Uni for $12.
My ultimate bet was Halladay/Got Stormy OVER Halladay, Got Stormy, Raging Bull, Without Parole and Uni, a $2 Bet for $16. You hope for the best, luck helps, and on this day that $16 became $125. You'll find the race chart from DRF here.
The lovely Dita (pictured above) honored me with a cigar for my effort.
The 52 in 52 is up to Race 6. I'm just going to keep this spreadsheet rolling forward until the sample size is over 100.
Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!
Friday, August 21, 2020
The Nomination Is In: The Fourstardave Handicap Grade 1 at Saratoga
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, sharing handicapping and bet construction advice since 2008.
I moved to Saratoga, Jumel Place, in April of 1986 and lived there until late November. I did all the requisite things that a Navy Petty Officer should do, including dating a Skiddy Kiddy, hanging out at The Metro and becoming a fixture at the race track. What I did not get the pleasure of doing was see Fourstardave (pictured above with photo credit: Adam Coglianese) run in person, as he burst onto the scene a year later in 1987. The Sultan of Saratoga is gone but not forgotten, but it's horses like this that catch the eyes and hearts of race fans that are needed if this sport is ever going to grow again. I'm not talking about handle, which is nice and needed, I'm talking about culturally relevancy.
I grew up when sports like Boxing and Horse Racing were still relevant. The generation that fought World War 2 was approaching retirement, enjoying the sports that they and their fathers grew up with, but funny things happen along the cultural road. Gambling on Football now dwarfs everything. Twitter and Social Media platforms offer quick takes which has replaced reading and deeper analysis. I'm not trying to be the old guy shouting from the window for a return to the past, but sometimes the old ways are best.
If you are reading this blog for the first time, try reading a book like Dick Mitchell's Common Sense Betting or Brad Free's Handicapping 101: A Horse Racing Primer. Join The Thorofan and find community. Immersing yourself in something that takes time and effort can be a rewarding experience. If anyone reading this ever wants help learning how to handicap, place a bet, or just feel comfortable at a race track, contact me. I'll do my best to help you and I promise I'm not a creeper!
It's such a lost year on many levels. I was so engaged at the beginning of the year with handicapping and this blog but the quarantine and life in general just took its toll. My only real objective now is to stay fresh, watch September and early October racing carefully, and prepare for Breeders' Cup Weekend. I'm all about turf racing and I prefer the cagey 5-7 year old's the best, and while I prefer a bit more of a route of grass, the inner turf, 1 mile, Grade 1 Fourstardave gives me the opportunity at a nine horse field and a lot of natural class. Lets get after this.
Let's do our best to look at current form:
10 July 2020: Keeneland. 1 Mile, Firm Turf. Maker's Mark Mile G1 Raging Bull (Fr), Emmaus (Ire) and Without Parole (GB)
4 July 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf. Poker Grade 3. Got Stormy, Valid Point
27 June 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf. Just a Game Grade 1. Uni (GB)
20 June 2020: Churchill Downs. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf. Wise Dan Grade 2. Casa Creed, Emmaus (Ire)
26 July 2020: Saratoga. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Inner Turf. The Bernard Baruch Grade 2. Halladay.
8 August 2020: Saratoga. 5 1/2 F Firm Turf. Troy Grade 3. Chewing Gum.
That is the latest on every horse in the field. What to make of it or just noise? We don't have a single last race winner entering the gate. That is highly unusual, but the ebb and flow of the race season is so out of whack right now it's understandable. So takeaways:
- Raging Bull (Fr) was out kicked in a late bid. Capable of a 1:32 Mile.
- Casa Creed ran a 1:33.72 in Hall of Fame G2 on this course as a three year old last year. Onbly 2 starts since for Mott's runner. Mostly slow efforts.
- Emmaus (Ire) trainer Murphy 0-10 Graded Stakes past calendar year. Never fast but seems in decline.
- Of the two Mares, Got Stormy's form has been off in 2020. Won this last year at 5-1.
- Halladay is a beautiful Grey/Roan who didn't have another gear when challenged last out. Hard to believe Pletcher Graded Stakes 9% in 187 attempts over past year.
- One of four (three too many) Chad Brown's, Uni (GB) is classy and the best horse in this field as a Mare. Brown is 29% off 31-60 day layoffs and a staggering 25% Graded Stake Winner in 271 attempts.
- Valid Point is a Scat Daddy Grade 1 winner in 6th start. Has had bad trips. Arlington's turf is not apples and apples with Saratoga, but 1:35.5 as 3 YO in Grade 1 Secretariat.
- Without Parole (GB) is still winless in North America under Brown and winless since Ascot in 2018. Classy. Need more.
- Chewing Gum is Mott's second in the gate, off a quick turnaround 2 weeks ago, stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs. Crap Shoot.
When a field is like this, evolving current form, overall good quality, I tend to trust my base handicap and let the tote board give me insight into the opportunity cost of the bet. I'm not sure I see value in betting this race until I see where the tote board ranks Raging Bull (Fr) the morning line favorite, how Without Parole and Uni (GB) match up on tote, and where a dark horse may emerge on a value line, such as Hallady or Got Stormy OVER Uni (GB), Without Parole (GB) and Raging Bull (Fr). That would be the sort of $2 Exacta ($12 total) that I could get behind.
Whatever you do, make your betting capital count and have fun with it!
Turk Out.
Friday, July 3, 2020
The Nomination Is In: The Manhattan G1 at Belmont
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| Instilled Regard wins the 2020 Fort Marcy Stakes at Belmont Park Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher |
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping blog that has been handicapping online since 2008.
A big thank you to The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
So much has happened in 2020 on a global stage. I handicapped six races in January/February 2020, as I like to watch the turf racing in the early season in Florida and California as it helps me prepare for when the big races come and I'm looking for value. While the world, and then the United States, went into a free fall beginning in March, my world went upside down with the death of both my Father in Law on March 12 and my own Father on April 8. I had no interest in horse racing, I was forced to continue working alone in an office all by myself, and the best therapy for me was my work. Day in and day out, 12-14 hour days. My work got me through my grief. It's time for horse racing to bring me back the feelings of pleasure. Let's get after this!
My initial reaction was just how even a race this was, even with an albeit small field. It's a four horse race by my fair line odds, with my top 4 consuming 80% of the win percentage while the Morning Line uses five runners on a corrected basis (the percentages divided by 100% + Takeout) to get to 80%. I don't think weather will be an issue and expect firm turf.
Let's start with looking at some video.
Belmont Park; 6 June 2020; 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf (Square around T for newbies on PP) The Fort Marcy G2
Belmont Park; 4 June 2020; 1 3/8 Firm Turf (Circle around T for Main Turf); The Tiller Stakes $80K
Fairgrounds; 21 March 2020; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; The Muniz Memorial Classic G2
I feel a bit rusty. I have been handicapping for, hard to believe, 35 years this year, so rusty is relative, but I'm torn on my position on this race. That's not a bad thing. When you watch racing long enough you start to spot patterns, archetypes, a recurring pattern. This movie seems very familiar. I'm also not the type of race fan or handicapper that bemoans the quality of the field; handicap what you are given to work with and if you don't like the action, walk away. It's that sentiment that allows me still have a roof over my head and a twenty eight year year marriage.
What to make of all this? Instilled Regard is going to get bet hard. Winning the Fort Marcy over this route of grass for Trainer Chad Brown who has Ortiz Jr up, does not hurt. Brown sends three into a gate of eight, it almost doesn't seem fair or equitable. I like Brown, I've been a fan of his for a very long time, but someone has to challenge is growing dominance on turf just to keep the dynamics of racing fair: 25% Graded Stakes winner in 241 starts, 27% Route Winner in 789 Starts, 26% Turf Winner in 666 Starts, 30% Won Last Start in 240 opportunities and 28% with the 2nd off a >45 day layoff. Shocking numbers, and he dominates the top of the board here also saddling Rockemperor (Ire) and Devamani (Fr).
Archetypes. Favorites for decades hovered as 30% winners from the gate. That number is going up. Does Instilled Regard come out of the gate, rate slightly off the flank and to the outside of early speed Cross Over before handily passing and finishing by a length or two in front of a charging Rockemperor or Sadler's Joy? Admit it, you've seen this movie too. Let's not be too jaded though. Let's assume all Brown runners are allowed to compete fairly against each other, and we have no reason to believe he's dishonest (i discount his fine last year for back OT- the laws are slanted to protect workers, not employers, rightfully so, even if Brown was following standard practice on the backstretch), then is there value to be found in this race? That's the only question a gambler has. Yes, horse racing fans have other interests and concerns, but a gambler, the lifeblood of this sport, should have a narrow focus: Is there money to be made? Possibly, but not betting Brown horses Win Place Show.
My base handicap is in the chart. It confuses some, but just because I handicap a winner doesn't mean I'll bet the handicap, its not sound gambling practice. I'm leaning, tote board dependent, towards Devamani (Fr) on top, my tepid chalk. While coming up short against Instilled Regard at 1 1/8 miles in June's Fort Marcy G2, Instilled Regard has a pretty low Tomlinson (309) for the extra furlong and has only one try at it in 17 lifetime starts. Devamani has a field best 385 Tomlinson and his Class is off the charts, bred by Aga Khan Studs and selling for $322,000 (against only $294,000 career earnings). The gelding may be a late bloomer, although conditioned by turf genius, Christophe Clement and Rob Atras, he is very sharp now in Brown's barn. I'm hoping for 3-1 or better.
If you can't tell, I'm not estatic about this race from a gambling perspective. Too much Brown, too much good Brown. It's not top say crazy things don't happen, it's just not this gambler's business plan to hope for crazy. I don't think it's crazy to think Sadler's Joy is starting to fade. 1 win in last 12: Last 12 back to June 2018: 1 Win, 2 Place, 6 Show, 3 6th place finishes. No longer a Grade 1 horse (except in fields like this), perhaps i'm wrong, and I have been before on older Champions, but I don't like the pace of this field for him. He will get bet though, that's good. So will Instilled Regard and Rockemperor. That's good. I'm going to keep my betting conservative and put Devamani on top with Dot Matrix and Cross Border to Show, a $2 bet for $4. Plausible, not crazy, is the business plan.
It feels good to be back. Thank you Thorofan.
Turk Out!
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| Three Generations of Turk at the Spa. This was Street Sense's Travers Day |
Saturday, February 22, 2020
The Nomination Is In: The Buena Vista G2 at Santa Anita
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| Carressa- Benoit Photo |
The turf pickings were slim today. Yes, I am primarily a 4 Year old and Up Turf Handicapper. It's the sort of racing I like, I'm good at it, and I love the amount of data I can find on these animals more than anything else. I like data. My past performance of choice is typically DRF Formulators but I have used Timeform US, including using them independently and simultaneously on races. I'm not endorsed and I pay for my own products, and I just find the Formulator a comfortable fit. I will shift to Timeform for certain meets and certain races, but I'm a mechanic at heart, I use the right tool for the right job.
While the pickings were slim, I like the makeup of this race, The Buena Vista G2 at Santa Anita, 1 Mile over firm turf. By the way you'll find a link to track conditions and scratches and changes here. I've seen mixed thoughts on the weather but I wouldn't expect soaking showers.
Let's get after it!
What's the first thing you'll notice? I've spotted in my humble opinion a large underlay in the form of Jolie Olyimpica (Brz). Hopefully the betting public takes the horse to 8-5 like the track handicapper did because a real opportunity presents itself there. Let's take a look at some relevant video first.
The Megahertz G3: 1 Mile; Santa Anita; Firm Turf F and M 4/Up; 20 Jan 2020
Las Cienegas Stakes G3; 5 1/2 F Santa Anita; Firm Turf 4 YO and Up F and M; 11 Jan 2020
I love exciting new runners, but that's the fan in me. The gambler in me doesn't understand how a filly making her second start in the US, coming off a small field 5 1/2 furlong race, gets installed as an 8-5 favorite. Maybe she goes out and wins with daylight between her and rivals but I want to see results before I go fanboy. Jolie Olimpica (Brz) should be a fun story this year, but today, I want her to stumble a bit.
I like Carressa to win. 2nd off break for Trainer Shirreffs and a last out winner in the above Megahertz at this distance and conditions. Tactical speed, must maintain press with the leaders because there is much more late speed than she can handle. Second turf start after switching surfaces. Light chalk for me.
Brill on paper wins the class battle. The $1 million dollar Medaglia d' Oro daughter is regal but so far the results are not there. In the Megahertz she was in a great spot in the lane and had no response.
If you go two races back to the $82,000 Lady of Shamrock, 1 Mile over Good Turf at Santa Anita you see a more engaged Brill.
Boom or Bust. Left Hollendorfer barn last summer after a not so good Black Eyed Susan on Preakness Day. Trainer Chatlos is winless in 6 stakes over last calendar year and Smith jumped mounts to Jolie Olimpica. Boom or Bust.
Lady Prancealot (Ire) is a safe option at a good price possibly. Big Late speed. 4 of 6 in the money at distance, 10 of 15 in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at Santa Anita. Winner in December of 3 YO Grade 1 American Oaks at classic distance over grass. Trainer Ballas wins 22% of time off of a break this size.
Mulchy (GB) is interesting to me. 1st time lasix, 1st time North America, 1st time with Trainer Callaghan after leaving John Godsen's barn. Hot jock Rispoli is up, a 22% winner in 94 starts this meet. I can't imagine a spot in exotic but very interesting to pay attention to.
Mucho Unusal and Super Patriot round out my exacta possibles. Mucho Unusal has good tactical speed and some sucess at the distance and over grass. Place finish in the American Oaks I referenced earlier. Trainer Yakeen and Rosario, up, have won 63% of 8 starts at Santa Anita. In the money 8 of 11 lifetime. Super Patriot is Trainer Baltas other runner here, with Rosario hopping off for Mucho Unusual and Fuentes now up. Late speed but maybe a bit slow for this group. 7 straight in the money finishes. Love the claimers aiming high.
What to make of it? I'll be paying attention to the will pays from the probables on Twinspires to assemble exactas. I like:
$1 Bet 2-7-8-4-9 OVER 2-1-7-8-3-4-9 for $30. I may eliminate some combinations but you get the idea.
Have fun friends!
Turk Out
Monday, February 17, 2020
Post Race Analysis: The Fair Grounds G3 Handicap- How to Use Probables and Will Pay
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| Factor This: Photo Amanda Hodges Weir |
The Turk put up another successful handicap and bet yesterday, but with the whopping $1.50 net earnings, I better keep my day job.
Recalling I handicapped The Fair Grounds, a 1 1/8 mile firm turf race for four year old and ups at of all places, Fair Grounds.
I said the following pre-race:
"... I like Michael Stidham's Synchrony or Norm Casse's Dontblametherocket to win. I gave the edge to Dontblametherocket mostly because he won the Col Bradley here a month ago, has 5 wins in 8 FG starts, 11 of 13 lifetime in the moiney over grass and 4 wins in last seven starts. This is the gelded son of Blame's 2nd off layoff, a 26% Casse angle. They are very close, so Synchrony wins the Base Handicap but I have Dontblametherocket current form as the key driver.
Synchrony is 5 of 5 in the money at FG with 4 wins, 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and has 6 wins in last 15 starts. As I mentioned this is the 7 YO son of Tapit's first start since early October but training at FG since early January.
I'll be building an exact and I have to decide for sure but assuming I include my three "B" horses and possibly my B- group as Place. I don't want to over bet so we'll see.
My B group isn't overpowering but all have good trainer/jockey combos and all are the type of 5-6 year old veterans who hang around Place-Show-Exotic race in and race out. I'm not really sold on the order. Factor This conditioned by Brian Cox has early speed and Cox/Bridgmohan have won 30% of 50 races over past year at FG. Cox is outstanding on turf/routes and graded stakes. Bill Mott's Classic Covey is a 60K ish OC runner primarily with a career best 100 Beyer in a G2 in March 2018. Off since mid October. Midnight Tea Time has 12 Place/Show finishes in 17 turf starts. Could be coming at the end.
Sailing Solo, $100,000 Smart Strike colt has only won $102,000 in his five years. I see promise but no production. 7 of 7 in the money in 2019. Early Speed will flash like Col Bradley where he led before finishing 5th, 5 back. Extra 1/16th today, same jock. I dunno. Ontario Canada Bred Tone Broke is slow but I always like to mention Fort Erie Prince of Wales runners. The 4 YO transitions from mostly dirt and is a huge wildcard. Bombs away candidate but don't bet the mortgage..."
I modified what I said just slightly and bet a 6 horse 1 dollar bet for $30 in which I won $31.50, a 5% ROI, well below my desired 40% baseline. My bet was 2-4-5-6-8-12 BOXED. (4-2 won).
Should I have bet at all? Let the Probables/Will Pay Table help you. If you are like me, its really hard to track the "Will Pays" scrolling across the side of the screen, but Twinspires, my unsolicited and not sponsored choice of betting apps, makes this easy to see.
On the App/Website screen it looks like this:
I made it a bit easier to understand by picking out my bet from the chart. You'll note the probable for 4-2 is exactly $31 on a $1 bet, and that is because I made these screen shots after the race started. I bring this up because you will be looking at this before the race goes to post and the numbers on some of the late movers may change.
So this exercise is, should I have placed my bet? Recalling the bet again
2-4-5-6-8-12 BOXED.
The bets in RED should NOT have been made. If the bet was successful, I'd make less than the bet was worth, a semi persistent problem of mine. The bets in YELLOW are marginal enough to not be bothered making.
I would say betting Synchrony/2 to win was a waste of capital. A Synchrony/Tone Broke/8 Exacta was possible and deserved a stand alone bet. You could say the same about Dontblametherocket/5 and anyone but Tone Broke.
Factor This/4 with the 6 or the 8 would have been nice, with the 12 marginal but acceptable.
I think the take away is the bet wasn't worth the risk. I felt pretty confident pre-race that Synchrony or Dontblametherocket would win and so did the betters sending them off $1.40 and $2.30 to $1 respectively. I should have walked away, the favorites even in this field size were bet down too hard. The scratch of early speed Sailing Solo didn't help.
My weakness is not as a handicapper but as a bettor. I am a good gambler in general but in hindsight this was a bad bet and I got bailed out not losing anything when Factor This won. What should I have done differently besides walk? Break the bet up and not box it lazily is usually always the takeaway. Always try to learn something. Watch the trip of Dontblametherocket. He was 3, 4 and then 5 wide. Watch where he shows up next.
About 10% through the 52 bet challenge and I have a 56% ROI and I'm up about $125 on the year. I still expect to be break even or negative by the end of the year, small sample size and all, and making mistakes like today will not help. I will focus much more and walk away when I see this pattern return.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
Saturday, February 15, 2020
The Nomination Is In: The Fair Grounds G3
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| Synchrony: Photo Michael Burns |
I took a few weeks away from the 52 bets in 52 weeks series I am conducting as I just wasn't thrilled with the races available and the track conditions. I preach walking away if you don't like the race conditions and that's what I did. I will recap the series results at the end of this blog post, the Turk is off to a pretty good start in 2020 after the last race, the Pegasus Turf.
Let's get after today's race, expected over firm turf at 1 1/8 miles, The Fair Grounds Grade 3.
I'm not sure who set the morning line, but I saw the race very similar to the handicapper. I don't look at the Morning Lines until my handicap is set, nor do I find them very useful these days with the ever increasing takeout skewing the odds, but what it tells me is I didn't really identify any overlays. Sometimes boring means less volatility, less volatility means more predictability, more predictability with a larger field isn't a terrible thing for banging out low risk/OK ROI returns. Not sexy, but a cash bulge at the end of the day is always more sexy than not having dinner money.
I'm not going to spend too much time on video today. Only two horses enter off of a Graded Stake last time out, five come in off Col. Bradley $123K Handicap at Fairgrounds on 20 January. From a class perspective, this is a pretty similar group with just a few exceptions. Aw heck, lets look at video of those five.
FG; 18 Jan 2020; 1 1/16 Firm Turf. Col Bradley Handicap $123,000
I like Michael Stidham's Synchrony or Norm Casse's Dontblametherocket to win. I gave the edge to Dontblametherocket mostly because he won the Col Bradley here a month ago, has 5 wins in 8 FG starts, 11 of 13 lifetime in the moiney over grass and 4 wins in last seven starts. This is the gelded son of Blame's 2nd off layoff, a 26% Casse angle. They are very close, so Synchrony wins the Base Handicap but I have Dontblametherocket current form as the key driver.
Synchrony is 5 of 5 in the money at FG with 4 wins, 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and has 6 wins in last 15 starts. As I mentioned this is the 7 YO son of Tapit's first start since early October but training at FG since early January.
I'll be building an exact and I have to decide for sure but assuming I include my three "B" horses and possibly my B- group as Place. I don't want to over bet so we'll see.
My B group isn't overpowering but all have good trainer/jockey combos and all are the type of 5-6 year old veterans who hang around Place-Show-Exotic race in and race out. I'm not really sold on the order. Factor This conditioned by Brian Cox has early speed and Cox/Bridgmohan have won 30% of 50 races over past year at FG. Cox is outstanding on turf/routes and graded stakes. Bill Mott's Classic Covey is a 60K ish OC runner primarily with a career best 100 Beyer in a G2 in March 2018. Off since mid October. Midnight Tea Time has 12 Place/Show finishes in 17 turf starts. Could be coming at the end.
Sailing Solo, $100,000 Smart Strike colt has only won $102,000 in his five years. I see promise but no production. 7 of 7 in the money in 2019. Early Speed will flash like Col Bradley where he led before finishing 5th, 5 back. Extra 1/16th today, same jock. I dunno. Ontario Canada Bred Tone Broke is slow nut I always like to mention Fort Erie Prince of Wales runners. The 4 YO transitions from mostly dirt and is a huge wildcard. Bombs away candidate but don't bet the mortgage.
I think I'll assemble something like this:
2-5 OVER 2-5-4-12-6-11-8 a $2 bet for $24. Seems a bit pricey so I reserve right to reconsider and will post final bet in next blog.
And finally, the 52 Bets in 52 Weeks Series has another win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf on January 25. Recalling from my blog the bet:
"...So what to do with it? While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2. "
They finished 1-12 with Zulu Alpha at $11.80 to one winning over Magic Wand at $3.70 to one. I said I needed a $30 bet to be justified with some luck and we got it. The $1 exacta paid $88.30.
The ROI for the year is 64% with $124 in Net winnings.
Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!
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