Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic

That's Kay, the Turk Family Weimaraner, getting her Breeders' Cup handicappers homework in. We've studied some of the contenders for the Turf in our last post and today we will look at the Classic.

I'm not sure my first emotion when I look at the contenders for the Classic. Underwhelmed? Disappointed? I dunno. Sure it's exciting the idea of a filly, Harve de Grace, as a serious contender, and the idea of Uncle Mo returning to Churchill Downs where he won the Juvenile a year ago and seemingly was a Triple Crown threat that never materialized (The Timely Writer?....nice move), but the rest of the field is really lacking star power, or is it?

I've been asked to handicap this race for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I was honored to be chosen to handicap such a prestigious race by one of my favorite horse racing organizations so I am hopeful that I can identify someone that can come here and win as an overlay. I'm going to try and set aside the "fan" in me and take a strong look at the expected entries and see who is peaking at the right time.

Let's Get after it!

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes



2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding



Irish Champion Stakes



15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes



Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon.



2011 Met Mile



2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs



Tizway, the son of Tiznow, will be my emotional chalk for the Classic, but it's not like he isn't talented enough to pull it off. The reports of his work at Belmont, where he shipped in to run over a faster strip of dirt, have been excellent.

Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.



2011 Jockey Gold Cup



2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out



Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby



This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.



Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011



I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes



I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy



10f The Travers Stakes



I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes



...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap



Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011



Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile



..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.



Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.



2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff



Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame



The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on



Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: Turf

The 'Ol Turk will be handicapping and hunting for exotic payout Nirvana at the Breeders' Cup, and Handicappers Homework before the Past Performances are printed and red ink is applied to them aids the process.

It goes without saying, the Europeans add a real layer of complexity to the handicapping. Speaking as a bettor, I think it helps that there is a real visceral feeling out there that the Europeans on turf are vastly superior. Maybe they are, and let the big money flow to them, it will be our job with the homework to know as much as we can about them so we can determine which North American runner has a chance, as an overlay, of taking down the house.

Nathaniel, trained by John Gosden in the King George and Queen E Stakes. Caution, poor Rewilding is seen breaking down. If you have a moment, read the comments of Trainer John Gosden, one of the Turk's favorite conditioners. I admire this man greatly.



Sea Moon is trained by Sir Michael Stout. The colt would be coming in off a Show finish in the St. Leger.



I've found some comments related to Sea Moon's stamina, which Trainer Stoute seems to dismiss and the connections intentions for the Breeders' Cup seem to be firmed up as well.

St Nicholas Abby is trained by Aidan O'Brien. The Montjeu colt was fifth in the Arc. Don't look for the filly Danedream in Louisville but Treasure Beach we'll get too.



All this does is state the obvious, that with defections, we may see some horses in the Turf that will be looking at the race as chalk free and opportunity city. We have to keep in mind that not every European sent here is top tier.

Aidan O'Brien's other expected starter is Treasure Beach who is starting in Woodbine on October 16th. Some pretty darn good horses, including possible turf starter Dean's Kitten, went into the gate on Arlington Millions Day and here is Treasure Beach taking the Secretariat Stakes



And another strong Treasure Beach effort, the Irish Derby.



Winchester would be coming in off a horrid Joe Hirsch, but Belmont that day was a bog with no real turf pace. Look for Dean's Kitten again. Don't worry handicapping poor Cape Blanco, that fine horse was retired after this effort because of injury.



Winchester was much stronger in the Sword Dancer. Look for Teak's North as well, another possible Turf starter.



And the United Nations, Teak's North punches his ticket for the Turf.



And speaking of punching tickets, Celtic New Year earned a trip to the Turf with a win in Del Mar, in the Del Mar Handicap. A great trip but really gutty holding off Bourbon Bay.



What I've taken away from this is so far I see no real favorite and I'm sure the next week will be interesting, as some folks out there who didn't consider this race may not start to look at this as the wide open affair it is shaping up to be and may take a swing at it. Building a Superfecta out of this may be really challenging but we could be looking at a five figure Super so its worth the try.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: October 15, 2011; The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland

I'm here on this day of rage to represent the 1%; The 1% of horseplayers who are getting phat off the pari mutuel losses of the oppressed 99% betting public. You poor, downtrodden masses, lined up at the betting windows like lemmings, The Ol' Turk is a benevolent 1% type, offering my Truck Nutz Iron Pipe Locks of the Week for free. Win some bread money and any left over, do something humanitarian like save a horse.

All kidding aside, there are some pari mutuel winnings just sitting there waiting to be had each week. You have to pick your marks and you have to know when to just sit back and be a horse fan with no skin in the game. The card in today's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland is stacked and earns its Grade 1 status; Winter Memories, Together(Ire) ,Summer Soiree, the Breeders' Cup Champ, More Than Real; Wow. We're going to handicap this and have some fun, but there are much easier races this weekend to beat the odds.

Let's get after it today!




Before we go to deep, I pulled up some key race videos that you should take a strong look at. The Fillies and Mares continue to be just a wildly exciting and deep group. These are some of the more sterling runs of the year.

The Del Mar Oaks Grade 1 (20 Aug 2011)



The First Lady Grade 1 (8 Oct 2011)



The Garden City Grade 1 (17 September 2011)



From the outside, with Ramon Dominguez up is Summer Soiree, the Del Mar Oaks champ. The War Front daughter has 4 wins in 5 tries in 2011 including two sizzling turf efforts. Off since August 20, Trainer Motion is 25% off this layoff and a 25% winner Won Last Start. Not sure who she beat at at Del Mar as Nereid and Star Billing are a lower tier here.

The Turk loves Winter Memories and wants to see her win here, but the bettor in me tries to keep an even keel about these things. The beautiful El Prado (Ire) daughter has 6 wins in 8 starts over turf and her last race she closed like a freight train with a turn of foot that defines turn of foot. There should be plenty of speed for her to focus on over the last 1/8 of a mile.

Together (Ire)is a Galileo (Ire) daughter trained by Aidan O'Brien runs back on one week layoff after a willing Place , 1 1/2 lengths off the winner of the First Lady (as an aside, don't cha love the TRACKUS video feeds!. A 21 day layoff in September saw her come back sluggish and an 8 day layoff as a 2 YO was similar results. No wins in 7 starts this season.

Kathmanblu is a very honest girl with a turf master, Leparoux up. 9 of 13 in the money lifetime, 6 of 8 in the money over grass, she'll be in the exotic mix.

It may be time to say that More Than Real had a great trip in the Breeders' Cup but has never stepped forward after that. 2nd lowest lifetime Beyer, never breaking 90 in 6 races. Don't expect much here.

Trainer Shirreffs has two talented girls here with Star Billing and Nereid. Both are off the layoff since the Del Mar Oaks, a break Shirreffs wins off of 14% of the time. Star Billing is 5 of 5 in the money on turf but no wins at the distance. Nereid won 3 of 4 starts over turf and 4 of 4 in the money, but also no wins at the distance.

So what to make of all this? Nereid , Marketing Mix and More Than RealSummer Soiree may rate a bit back after breaking from the outside. Kathmanblu will position in a stalk, 2 lengths back, and a blanket of closers will lay as much as 3 back with Star Billing, Together and Winter Memories all watching each other. This race will be settled in the final hops and i'm leaning towards Winter Memories. I'll assemble a superfecta with the tote board chalk in the top four.

Have fun with it friends. Turk Out!

Keeneland Analysis after Day 2

The old Keeneland Tote Board; Be it new, old, analog, digital or scratched out in chalk, it doesn't matter, but as a horse player it pays to pay attention to it before and after the races.

I've taken a few different views of the races, broken down by Turf and Poly. I'm less interested in handicapping analysis and more focus is on what financial returns are being generated, specifically for the Superfecta, and what the ranking on the tote board was the top four finishers.

Let's get after it starting with Poly:





13 of the first 14 poly races had the Chalk finish in the top 4; Two of the three biggest Super payouts were keyed by the Chalk; The Winner with the lowest odds keyed the biggest Superfecta. The Average field size on POLY was 9.71 Starters.

Post One won 2 out of 14 races and was in the Superfecta 5 of 14 races.

7 races of the 14 poly races had 3 out of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta and the average pay out was $2,800. One race had 4 of 4 from the tote board rankings but still paid $724.

Of the 14 winners, 5 pressed the pace, 4 took a stalking trip and 5 closed like freight trains.

And now the Turf:





Six races on Turf, all raced on Firm turf. 4 Chalks made the Superfecta with 2 Chalk winners. The Average number of starters was 9.83 and Post 1 was 0 of 6 wins and only 1 of 6 in in Superfecta.

4 of the 6 races had 3 of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta with the average payout $760.

Of the six winners, only one was pressing the pace at the top of the Stretch; 3 horses were in a stalking position of around 1 1/2 lengths back and 3 horses were closing about 2 back by the top of the stretch.

The sample size isn't large but what I glean is that chalk generally finishes in the top four and of the first 20 races, 12 of 20 had at least 3 of the top 4 from the tote board rankings in the Superfecta.

Learn to keep your own data, data that helps you with either your handicapping or your bet structuring. I could think of many more data points I'd like to track, many of them based on handicapping. The most key item for me to research is how the morning line favorite and the Tote board Favorite lined up with The Ol' Turk's Chalk.

I hope someone found this as interesting as I do; I often talk shop with fellow bettors and without sounding like a pompous prick I try to stress that its this sort of post race analysis, which doesn't take long and normally I would do on a Wednesday night when I'm not handicapping, that really helps unlock who's winning and how well the bettors are pegging the winners.

I'd be remiss to not say that I am a big fan of Steve Byk and his At The Races show on XM Sirius Radio. Steve has a wonderful format and he gets some fantastic recurring guests as well as all the major players in the sport. Steve is one hell of a horse player and I respect him as a handicapper very much. Steve's also a very passionate guy and I finally got around to listening to Steve talk about Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds; Steve tastefully talked about the online horse racing community on Facebook which I am a minor member of, but Tim was almost the lynch pin of online horse racing fans, the catalyst that got many a good discussions going. I know almost two weeks after his death I miss his comments dearly. If you are interested you'll find Steve talking about Tim abround 5 minutes into the first hour at this link.

Life goes on for the living but Tim's memory will live on for a very long time.

Have fun friends with your handicapping; I have the Grade 1 Spinster lined up for tomrrow.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 7, 2011; Keeneland Fall Meet Opening Day

Friends, don't hate the Player! I'm not sure I could have scripted my gambling action on opening day at Keeneland any better than today unfolded. Handicap or Bet Structure? Both really. Simple boxed Superfectas using my base handicaps and being prepared enough to deal with seven scratches in race 7 is the story of the day.

Let's get after this:

Keeneland Race 7-8



I didn't have abundant time to prepare a bet strategy today because as opposed to those folks living down on Wall Street, I'm fully employed and earning my right to be indebted.

I kept it simple; Race 7 had a whopping seven scratches. I took my top four from my base handicap and boxed them and $455 later the strategy was proven adequate. I really thought Blues Street could win and I liked his place on the tote board as the bettors 3rd favorite. As he was my chalk, I was contrarian. In my mind this was a pretty straightforward and rather easy bet to make, but that's hindsight. The handicap was solid and I didn't need to over think it. They don't always break that way. I would have bet the same way even if the scratched horses had run, but the payout would have been better. Sigh.

Race 8 is where I feel my experience kicks in. Speaking of opposing view points I placed Flashpoint no higher than Show in my base handicap. He had been training lights out on the fake plastic for Trainer Ward but was racing on it for the first time. Always demand to see results first, don't bet an underlay that hasn't proven himself on the surface.

Prerace I expressed my intrigue in Hoofit (Nz). Not much on the PP's would point you to a win except a nice last race on the plastic at PID. The bettors had him 6th, I had him at least in Fourth. I took my top five and boxed them and walked off with $1,182.

I'm pretty pleased with the three hours of effort I put into these handicaps. This was a good day, and as a gambler you must understand they won't all be like this.

Have fun friends and thank you for making the launch of Turf so successful.

The Nomination Is In: October 7, 2011: Keeneland Opening Day Fall 2011

I love the beauty of Keeneland. I love the ebb and flow that Keeneland provides the racing calendar; the start of spring, the end of summer, like bookends on the turf racing season. I love the beauty of the track and the details that seem to pop out when you take time to just look. I'd like to rant about the fake plastic dirt, and I won't lie, I'd rather it was dirt, but it seems to play fair and it does allow for racing and handicapping in the sometimes horrible weather that can accompany these meets, so I'm going to say I don't mind it and have come to be as accepting of it here as I am Arlington, Woodbine and PID. Now Del Mar and Hollywood, don't get me started.

When I went looking for a picture that screamed Keeneland I found a clock, a majestic Rolex clock, taken by a wonderful writer, the talented Michigan Bred Claimer, Joe Nevills, who I thank for its use.

I handicapped a sequence of races that lead to a late Pick Three that finishes with the Grade 1 Alcibiades. i really dislike two year old racing and I just can't seem to get that interested in the Grade 1 affair so out with the Pick 3 and we'll just focus on a very nice Allowance Race on Turf and a Grade 3 sprint on the plastic. Let's get it on!




Twelve horses should enter the gate in a $58,000 allowance, 1 mile on what should be firm turf. I placed Blue's Street on top, but the chalk isn't that heavy. A Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner, recently shifted by Anstu Stables to Eddie Kennelly's barn from the trainer Pletcher. A real dog last time out, Kenneally is a 24% winner with first timers and Blues Street is a talented 7 YO gelded son of Street Cry (Ire): 12 of 12 in the money at the distance, 17 of 27 in the money on Turf, 5 of last 9 in the money. Leparoux is up. I do not believe he will be the bettor's chalk, that honor most likley will go to Yankee Fourtune, so I am looking for an a good price as well.

There is lots to like about Yankee Fourtune and the only thing i don't care for is the long layoff, but McLaughlin hits 32% off this sort of extended rest. MClaughlin places Alan Garcia up, and they combine for 27% winners at KEE over past year in 11 tries. 5 wins in 6 tries on turf, gotta love the will to win, a nice contract to Bim Bam who we'll get too.

Not much separating my next layer, Moryba (Brz) and Bim Bam. Morya (Brz), trained by Bill Mott, is a fairly consistent runner cutting back in distance. 9 of 15 in the money on turf and competitive in his Grade 2 races this year.

Bim Bam has no wins in last 15 starts and zero of 9 in 2011 while getting up for Place 6 times in last 20 and 12 of last 27 Place or Show. Doesn't seem to want to win but more than capable of 4th.

I have Hollinger next but Mikoshi is better overall; Mikoshi is a 5 year old Orientate horse trained by Matz with Go Go Gomez up. Winless in two tries at KEE, 1 win in six starts at distance, but 15 of 20 in the money turf. Last time out at Woodbine he laid an egg. His post and his last effort will have to be reversed but tough spot.

Hollinger has two Show finishes in last 7 races, never won at the distance and only 1 turf win in 5 tries. Trainer Attfield is pretty sharp and would not be surprised if he scratches out of here.

Cherokee Artist has Johnny V up for Trainer Motion. I'm actually going to flip flop him and Hollinger in my base handicap. No wins in 5 tries at the distance, 1 win in 10 tries on turf, winless at KEE and 1 win in last 13.

I'll build a superfecta out of this, matrixed as I won't cover any of the exotic picks in the win spot.

In the Grade 3 Phoenix, I think Aikenite is a deserving chalk and I expect he will be the chalk at post time. 3 of 4 in the money at KEE with 2 wins. Pletcher and Johnny Velazquez win 41% of KEE starts and 29% overall in past year on a whopping 705 starts together.

Sterling Outlook has been claimed twice in past six months and last out gamely dead heated a win at 6 furlongs at Del Mar with a 101 BSF. Trainer Saddler places Gomez up and the two win 235 of the time together. 2 wins on fake dirt in 9 tries. Feast or famine I reckon.

Hamazing Destiny is very reliable and honest. Trainer Lucas is looking for a graded stakes win, with an unthinkable zero for 69 streak in the rolling year. 5 of 10 in the money at the distance.

Flashpoint is training very fast on the fake stuff, banging out :59 and change 5f workouts at KEE. First time racing on plastic so how the Pomeroy son performs, who knows. Could get bet down to the chalk and maybe the bettors are right but I'm not there yet. He's very good though so we'll cover the top spot with him. Trainer Ward very respected here at The Turk and Little Turk.

Only other horse I'm covering is a bit of value, Hoofit (Nz) . I'm not sure what to expect but he ran well at PID in September.

The Turk has never been very successful at Keeneland, especially the poly races. I'll be playing quite a few early to get a feel for it and we'll see if we can't do a bit better here.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Horse players, in late September horse racing lost a super fan, in fact the HRN Fan of the Year, "Tiznow" Tim Reynolds. Please consider a completely tax deductible donation to help for the education fund of Tim's daughter, Lauren.

There are so many people and organizations that need our help, I know that, but if possible, please help the family of one of our own, a horse racing fan who oozed passion for this sport and who is dearly missed by his friends and family.

Thank You friends. Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Classic Betting Options and Handicappers Homework

Yes, I'm going to talk betting menus and Breeders' Cup Classic statistics but before I go to far, today is the grand unveiling of Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers, a group that I am an invited member of. This collection of twenty bloggers, while all individual voices, isn't just a blog aggregate site. In our introductory press release, one of our six founding members, Valerie Grash defined our goal as "...to gather the best the blogosphere had to offer in regards to the coverage of horse racing...where readers can easily find select and thought provoking writing by individuals invested in sharing their love for the sport." Well said Valerie and thank you for inviting me.

My blog, The Turk and the Little Turk, has been a labor of love for three years now. If you don't know me, let me introduce myself and my blog. I am The Turk. Yes I have a name, but don't expect me to use it much here. The Turk moniker was not an uncommon nickname in handicapper circles in the sixties and seventies and I reckon every OTB and backstretch had a "Turk" and a "Greek". Not too long ago I read an obituary of a World War II veteran which he was described as a longtime horse player whose nickname was "The Turk". I feel a kinship with the older generations and I hope I carry on this man's legacy well.

I picked my nickname up in 1986 when a bunch of sailor buddies of mine got sick of hearing me talk about Turkoman, especially after Precisionist smoked him. It was a friendly taunt that I wore as a badge of honor. The Little Turk is my eleven year old son, a Korean-American with an uncanny knack for picking winners out of the horses I inaccurately toss out.

I've been in the game a long time but don't expect breaking news, trainer quotes, insider information or controversial opinions on matters I know little of: I'm a handicapper. I take a red gel pen to Daily Racing Form Past Performances and I apply my derivative techniques to construct exotic vertical and horizontal betting structures from my base handicaps. I build my handicaps in advance of the post parade with each of the horses identified by "layer"; where in the field a particular runner will finish, be it W-P-S, the Exotic 4th, or my toss outs, the Also-Ran's.

I will identify what sort of bet structure I intend to build and often, not always, I'll post the exact bet. I believe in watching the tote board and being prepared to alter your bet structure within the confines of the base handicap, albeit slightly, if opportunity presents itself. After the race I'll break down the race chart and we'll try to learn something in hindsight about why we won or lost.

I have my quirks; I don't read much in advance of the racing, preferring to only study the past performance information, race charts and YOU TUBE race videos to avoid outside bias. I also ignore morning line odds. A good example of why this can be very helpful was this past weekend at Santa Anita in the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon. Turning Top (Ire), a 5 year old that was 13 of 21 in the money on Turf, a 402 Tomlinson, 3 of 5 in the money on Santa Anita turf but a woeful one of six in the money in 2011, but all Grade 2 with one Grade 1 effort. It was her third effort off of a clearly needed break. In my mind this horse was top six in a nine horse field and she was in my superfecta mix. The bettors didn't see it that way and she was pushed down to the lowest odds on the board. When she hit the wire in fourth she provided the only value in a chalky Superfecta. Her morning line odds? 20-1. She fell to 46-1 before the race began. It's these contrarian thoughts where I find value choices. Bias can influence you in all sort of ways and you'll hear me tell you to block out the bias (including Internet hacks like me) at least until you make your selections.

The Internet is a big place; If we are going to make horse racing relevant again culturally it will be at the grass roots level. The Turk is neither a journalist nor an irreverent or irresponsible writer: I hope you come and visit my blog, share your thoughts, take something away like I have taken away from the handicappers I respect the most. There are lots of places to find interesting voices in racing , be it new media, old media, or a melting pot of both journalists and others crashing the party. The Turk is also a proud member of The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Raceday 360 as well as a sometimes contributor to various sites such as Hello Race Fans! and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner.

Now that I rambled my gums at you...

The Breeders' Cup is a unique event in American horse racing, especially since getting the Stretch Armstrong treatment and turning into a two day festival. Churchill Downs will be packed with the true believers, horse racing fans who know their stuff. The mostly Grade I level racing will feature cards that read like the who's who of the particular division, multiple graded stakes winners and racing millionaires who suddenly find themselves overlays. I find the best way to handle the excitement of being at the track on big days like this is to be prepared; All races I intend to bet will be base handicapped and I'll have some idea of how I intend to build my bets, along with a budget that I won't exceed. It's a bit too early to start handicapping, but I will do my homework over the next week and put in the preparation for how these races have been unfolding and what sort of odds I should expect.

When I walk into Churchill Downs I'll be prepared with pre-made scratch pads to take the tote board information and layer it over my handicaps, helping me make the final decisions that will define which particular exotic option is best.

The tentative betting menu was released. There are Pick Five's with fifty-cent minimums, ten cent Superfecta's and a Pick Six that will carry over to Saturday if its not hit on Friday. There will be rolling Pick Threes, one Pick Four on Friday that ends with the Distaff or the Ladies Classic and two Pick Fours on Saturday. There is also a Distaff-Classic Double and $1 Super High Five's for both the Distaff and the Classic, with the Distaff High Five payout carrying over to the Classic which will have a mandatory payout.

That's alot to digest but digest it friends and start thinking about what your primary targets will be. I've got a soft spot for the Super High Fives.

I've spent sometime on the front end of my homework looking at some historical information.



What to glean? Only three chalks in past eleven years have won; Chalks have been in the Super High Five nine of eleven years; The bettors second favorites have only hit the board 4 times, only once as high a Show; The average winners odds: $10.12-1.

It's going to be a fun month of preparation. I hope you join me each post.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!