The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog. For those of you who have never read my blog, I'm The Turk and I've been handicapping and sharing my thoughts with this blog since 2008 and I've been playing the horses since 1986. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for putting up with my ramblings hosting my thoughts today.
I must admit something: In all that time of handicapping and horse race watching, I've never played Ellis Park. I knew it was in Kentucky, knew it was old, had no bias against it, but never played it. A few years ago I shifted my focus to older horses running routes of grass, and Ellis just isn't in my orbit. I also knew Churchill Downs bought the facility, so hopefully this stately old track that was modeled after Saratoga won't be sold off just for the value of the land.
Notice the highly unusual 90 degree chute for their mile course, just like Saratoga. The race will start and stop right in front of the grandstand.
The weather is a wild card. It's very hot today but tomorrow there is a chance for severe weather even hail. Make sure you check out the Ellis Park website and stay close to what's happening, but I'm handicapping assuming fast dirt for now.
This time of the year with older dirt horses you can get a pretty good view of current form, as all eight of the horses have 3-5 starts by now. These horses also travel in the same circles mostly and compete in the same high profile races. I like recency video handicapping. I focus on the trip, the pace, and then I like to look at the horse's stretch runs when ahead, pressing or faltering. I'm no horse flesh expert, and while I like to watch the horses in the paddock, they all look on the muscle to me, so I don't glean much from that, but I think its really important to bring context to the past performance, as good as they are at condensing a lot of information in a uniform fashion. Most people don't have the time for that. I'm a boutique handicapper, 3-4 races per weekend, sometimes less. I focus on the quality of my review and not the quantity. I use to do the speed handicapping thing, not good.
Anyways, Let's get after it!
Stephen Foster Handicap G1: EP; 1 1/8 Miles
Like I was saying previously, these horses travel in the same circles. The video below gives you a very good cross section of the runners. I will say, I think this is an impressive field for only 8 horses. You could make a case for any of the runners in my top six. I stopped investing time in dirt racing a few years ago as the fields shrunk and the quality of the remaining competition became so-so. This is a nice division currently, minus a few not here of exceptional quality, and there is quality and depth in the ranks.
Yes, this is 4 YO and UP, and by June/July I start to consider the 4 YO's more seriously. The Uncle Mo son Speed Bias is eye catching and a great price most likely. No matter what I bet, I'll have a W-P-S on him I reckon.
I've got a coin toss between Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy as the best horses in the gate. Rattle N Roll has decent early speed but not enough in this field to be too close at first turn, but very good closing speed. Three wins straight. 8 wins in 15 Fast dirt tries. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2023. Smile Happy can run well early, can run well late. Blazing in the Alysheba in early May. the 4 YO is 7 of 8 lifetime in the money and if it gets sloppy, should be very good.
I threw a blanket over my next group. The beforementioned Speed Bias should have the best price. Cutting back 1/16 for Trainer Moquett who is looking for first stakes win in a long while. Training very sharply.
Western Will Power is the Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating and Best Speed at Distance highest rated. Trainer Cox and Prat combined at 27% in 410 starts in 2023. Early speed, slows late and adding a 1/16 from last time out. 5 of 5 at the Distance Win-Place, 11 of 14 Win-Place over fast dirt and 13 of 16 Lifetime Win Place.
Proxy has the inside post and should be on the rail most of the trip. excellent late speed on display last time out at Oaklawn Handicap. Stidham is 23% off of a layoff going back to late April. 7 of 8 lifetime in the money at the distance.
I never know what to do with Stilleto Boy. No doubt in my mind he will be the race leader at the first turn and most likely the second turn. 1 win in 5 starts at the distance. 3 wins in 19 fast dirt starts. 2 wins in last 10. 9, yes 9 Show Finishes in 22 starts. I expect him to falter (famous last words).
I'm going to be playing exactas and at my own risk I am tossing Last Samurai and Happy American. I like Last Samurai but it's a loaded field.
Oaklawn Handicap G2: 22 April 2023; 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Santa Anita Handicap G1: 4 March 2023; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.
Pimlico Special G3: 19 May 2023; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt
Blame Stakes G3: CD 3 June 2023; 1 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt
Alysheba G2: CD 5 May 2023; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt
Ben Ali G3: KEE 22 April 2023; 1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt
So what to do with all this? I like to play exactas, so no reason to deviate. The best case scenario for me I don't see happening: a longer price winning over a mid pack price. I also don't want to play it too safe. Lets single Speed Bias to Win with Rattle N Roll to Place. A $2 bet. Sorry to disappoint with something better than that. I may change my thinking based on track conditions and scratches, as I'd love to find a way to slip Last Samurai in.
I have a correction to make to: I bet Ellis Park once, Kentucky Downs Preview Day. Now that Arlington Park is gone, Kentucky Downs is my favorite North American track, and that was the allure back in 2018. The funny thing is I said in 2018 that I don't think I ever handicapped Ellis Park either!
Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where we handicap turf races and place exacta bets.
Happy Memorial Day. We honor our war dead and those who gave the greatest sacrifice in the name of serving their country. This blog is written by a war veteran. My Dad, and my Grandfather, were both war veterans. I can only speak for myself, but war rhetoric has no place in modern American politics. A disproportionate amount of middle class and lower income men and women, whose parents are not politicians will die needlessly in the chess game of elites who have big mouths but lack guts. This blog is apolitical, but fiercely anti-war. Stop the rhetoric, Democrat and Republican, and defuse global tensions before its too late.
Today let's take a look at the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita. I would have liked a slightly bigger field, but there is some real quality runners in this field. Let's get after it!
Royal Heroine G2; 1 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf
The Wilshire G3; 30 April 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Fast Turf
Buena Vista Stakes G2; March 4 2023 SA at 1 Mile on Good Turf
RJ Frankel G3; 31 December 2022 SA 1 1/8 Miles on Good Turf
Allowance $99K; 21 April 2023 KEE 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf
As I've said many times, I don't handicap with the Morning Lines. I don't look at the Morning Lines before I prepare my Fair Odds, and by then I have already handicapped. I was shocked to see 5-2 on Viareggio (Ire). I posted the Caravaggio (Scat Daddy) 4 YO last race, a $99K Allowance at Keeneland in Mid April. Solid late close. A really good ride by Gaffalione who isn't up today for Trainer Brendan Walsh. First time at Santa Anita. 4 of 12 in exacta on Turf, all wins. 1 Win in 1 start at distance. Seemed a bit rich at this point in her career.
Queen Goddess to me is the top choice. I'm choosing to look past her Jenny Wiley, which the Turk picked her third in and rightly so, as she was in deep like the rest of the field that day against a very sharp In Italian (GB). Cutting back, the 5 YO purchased for a whopping $1.5 MM and career earnings of $770,000 (sounds like my bankroll to winnings ratio!) is 7 of 10 in turf exactas, 3 of 3 in SA exactas, and last outing at SA a win on New Years Eve in the RJ Frankel.
I think any of Macadamia (Brz) (slight edge) or Viareggio (Ire) and Quattroelle (Ire) could hit the exacta. Macadamia ran April 30 at 1 Mile at SA in The Wilshire and ran exceptionally well. The 5 YO seems to have found a new level this year. Quattroelle beat Macadamia two back in the G2 Buena Vista, also 1 Mile at SA. 9 of 16 in Turf exactas, 7 of 11 in SA Turf exactas, 1 win in 4 tries at 1 Mile. Viareggio is a flyer, but I'm not a big fan of taking a flyer on an overhyped, over bet, 2nd time NA start horse.
If I'm looking for bigger value, Trainer Carla Gaines Closing Remarks: A win two back in the Royal Heroine at 1 Mile at SA in early April before faltering late as the chalk in The Wilshire. Same early and Late Timeform Pace Figs as Quattroelle. The 5 YO is off to a good 2023 but is 7 of 13 in the exacta at SA, 4 of 5 in the exacta at the distance and 9 of 17 in the exacta on turf.
School Dance isn't my choice to back in the exacta but not out of question for Tri or Exotics. I tossed Bellamore who does have a good late turn of foot.
$2 Bet, Queen Goddess/Macadamia OVER Closing Remarks and Quatroelle for $8 and my alternative is Closing Remarks OVER Quattroelle, Viareggio, Macadamia and Queeen Goddess , a $2 Bet for $8. I think I like my alternative better for value.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap Turf Races and develop exacta bets. There was a time when I handicapped exclusively on the dirt, but times change, as do interests. I like big fields and horses with a lot of data. Today's Preakness offers neither, with the smallest field since the early 80's at seven, and the favorite, Kentucky Derby winner Mage, starting his fifth race.
I went to the Preakness Stakes just once, ten years ago. It was cold and rained. The Goo Goo Dolls, from Western New York just like The Turk, played in the infield. My mother and sister were in the same hotel as me without any pre planning. Trips to see graded stakes are some of the most relaxing vacations I've ever taken. I sit and contemplate the horses and time stands still. I don't believe in thinking about retirement before you actually retire, because as another famous Western New Yorker but Chicago native Marv Levy once said, once you start thinking about retirement, you're already retired, but that said, if I day dream a bit about it, I find my thoughts drifting to lazy days at the track. Last memory of Preakness 138? I stood in the valet line with Pitbull after the event. He was surrounded by women and dripped suave. La Vida Loca, DJ.
Mage is deserving of the top spot, especially with less pressure from First Mission who scratched on Black Eyed Susan Friday. At a seven horse field, this just isn't that fun a betting race unless chaos ensues. I think we can make a case or two for that.
I think National Treasure has a solid chance to win. Good Early speed and strong late speed, from the one post, with blinkers on (Baffert 17%), could take and hold the lead wire to wire. I have a soft spot for well bred Quality Road's.
Red Route One will be flying near the end but should be lagging out of the 5th post.
Blazing Sevens has been training very sharply for Chad Brown and also possess a strong late step.
Perform, from the six spot, is a Good Magic colt like Blazing Sevens, and has good tactical speed but overall slower than most. Don't expect the pace to favor a win but value in the place or Exotic spots possible.
As we are gambling, I'm going to put National Treasure and Red Route One in the win spot, with National Treasure, Mage, Red Route One, Blazing Sevens and Perform in Place; a $2 Bet of 1,5 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 for $16 bucks. If Mage wins I will perform a magic trick of making a big pile of dollars disappear. Covering Mage in the win spot adds $8 to the bet, for $24 investment. That doesn't work.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, focusing on turf racing and exact betting, and I am the Turk. For those of you that don't know me, I started handicapping at Saratoga in the summer of 1986 and started this blog in 2007. I like older runners over grass, as I find the data available on them, as well as their long careers as stakes runners, compelling. I'm not that wrapped up in Triple Crown euphoria, but I watched the Kentucky Derby for the first time since 2019 and handicapped it for the first time in many years, and do I love the handle and the big fields. Chaos pays. I did win the Trifecta on the Turf Classic and I won the Exacta on the Kentucky Derby, but I only netted about $46 dollars across both. I wasn't a very sharp bet constructor, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Today is more like the typical race I handicap, a Graded Stake older horse turf race, which I generally like between 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles in length to handicap. I'm not a marathon handicapper and I'm not a one turn sprinter handicapper either. Know thy self!
So what to do with this? Lets start with a piece of very relevant video, the Grade 2 Elkhorn from KEE on 22 April
I like how the four year old gelded Verstappen went eye to eye with the veteran Red Knight and found the will to pull ahead. Don't underestimate the competitive nature in video handicapping analysis. Everyone else in the Elkhorn that is going here did what you would expect, running style wise.
I wanted to find some video on Warren Point (GB), the 4 YO gelded son of Dubawi (Ire). This is over fake dirt from last October. Good staking trip and great late turn of foot.
I don't know if the Morning Line spread will hold, as I value Verstappen much more than the Belmont track handicapper did. I plan on putting Verstappen/4 and Warren Point (GB)/2 OVER 4-2-1-6-3, a $2 Bet for $16.
Have fun with it friends.
Turk Out
Welcome Back Friends to the Turk Blog. In my last post for Race 11, the Turf Classic, I prattled on about my love of the older horses running over grass, and my lack of enthusiasm for the 3 YO Kentucky Derby runners. Well, that's still true, but the gambler in me loves big handle and chaos, and with all the scratches including morning line and $2.0 MM winner, champion Forte, we have chaos. One thing I love about the Kentucky Derby is that one day a year it's like yesteryear, and everyone is a race fan and everyone has an opinion. My father, rest in peace, bet the grey horses because his sister, my dear Aunt Rose, loved the grey horses. It doesn't need to be anymore complicated than that. The good looking fella to the left is Rocket Can, but Hit Show, Tapit Trice, Reincarnate and King Russell are all Gr/Ro, so plenty to pick from.
From a handicapping perspective, I'm watching the undercard and speed seems to be carrying, but I'm favoring late speed to round out my potential exacta contenders. Let's get after it!
I won't elaborate too much on the why's to my ranking. I looked at recency/current form, class and effort, plus I do favor late pace figs over early. I could post 10 videos but really, have fun with this and look for value.
If I just boxed my top ten, a $1 bet is $90. Depending by the finish, the risk/reward can be justified with the field size and handle expected.
I will not box however, I will whittle down my potential winners and come up with something a bit more risky but even more reward-y.
Hong Kong Harry (Ire) Del Mar Thoroughbred Club/Benoit Photo
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping and bet construction blog focused on turf racing and exacta betting. When I first started blogging, I felt compelled to get into the Kentucky Derby trail, the prep races and then the first Saturday in May. Some of the "too cool for school" bloggers that I was part of a blogging alliance with would poo-poo the Derby as beneath them. I've never understood how the biggest racing day in America can be beneath anyone writing about this game, but I do understand not caring that much about the 3 YOs. I don't. As a handicapper, their is only one group of horses I like to handicap and bet less, and that's 2 YOs. I like history, video, consistency. I have a soft spot for the veterans, the hard knocker's, the geldings, the survivors. It's my favorite part of horse racing, the unheralded turf runners, big fish in a small pond of public recognition. While I'm likely to tote board handicap the Kentucky Derby, especially with the chaos taking place with all the scratches, staying true to my brand, I'm blogging the race just before, the Turf Classic Grade 1. Life is short, do what you like not what is expected. Let's get after it!
The ten horse field was impacted by two scratches, Master Piece (Chi) and Steady On. Steady On would have pressed the early pace and Master Piece (Chi) had the best late speed. Don't fool yourself, the loss of these pace presser on the front and back end of this field will affect how it unfolds. What to do with it?
I'm putting Hong Kong Harry (Ire) and Up to the Mark in the win spots. 6 YO versus 4 YO. But will be rolling late. Hong Kong Harry has had a slow start to 2023, but Trainer D'Amato 25% off of the layoff. 3 of 3 in the money at the distance, 11 of 12 in the money over turf, but first trip over CD Turf.
Up to the Mark was bred for this distance but goes at 1 1/8 for first time. First time CD. 2 wins in 3 turf starts, 9th career start. Nice late run in the Maker's Mark Mile G1 at KEE 21 days ago. Good start to 2023 with two OC 62K wins at Gulfstream. I.Ortiz, up, 26% in 566 starts over past year. Rooting for Repole here. I honestly don't pay that much attention to owners, but he spoke to Fan Duel TV this AM as I was writing this blog and his genuine sadness for other people in his life and circle over the scratch of Forte in the Kentucky Derby made me a fan of the man's character.
Santin and Spooky Channel could easily win this race. Brendan Walsh's Pretty Mischievous win in the Kentucky Oaks must have the Godolphin trainer walking on sunshine. 5 YO Santin goes Synth to Turf here, which Walsh is only 14% doing. Bad start in last start. No bid in losing to Hong Kong Harry in the Seabiscuit Handicap 22 November 2022. 2 for 2 at CD, including this race last year and the faux Arlington Million. Speaking of that, today would have been the opening day at what I considered the best turf track in North America, Arlington Park. It was a wonderful track, I had a deep connection going back to it from 1985, and I'll never forgive this stupidly (un) managed sport, the corporate greed of CDI, and the moronic state government of Illinois. Moving on...
Seabiscuit H. G2: 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar
Spooky Channel, the 8 YO, has been in great form in 2023 and should be rolling late as well also.
Muniz Memorial G2: 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf at Fair Grounds, 25 March 2023.
29th start today, with 13 turf wins and 18 of 28 in the money over grass.
I think those are the serious win candidates, and quite frankly only Wolfie's Dynaghost should be considered with the other Win candidates for the Place spot. Wolfie's Dynaghost should go off at <10-1, also is a synth to turf runner with Trainer Thomas winning 25% of those. Should be the early speed coming out of 3 spot, most likely next to Ocean Atlantique who I'm discounting at my own peril.
I'm thinking I may single Up to the Mark for the best Value and play 3 or so under him. Something like 5 OVER 3,7,8,9 a $2 bet for $8.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, I am the Turk, a 37 year horse handicapper who has been blogging since 2008. My handicapping these days is primarily for races run over a route of grass, but an occasional foray onto dirt is always enjoyable. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me this opportunity today.
My handicapping methods are a derivative of styles learned from reading handicapping authors like Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz, and when I was a younger, The Happy Handicapper, Robert Summers. Yes, I refer to myself in the third person as The Turk. Originally I did this to protect my identity because I wasn't sure if my employer would frown upon an employee with a certain amount of fiduciary responsibilities writing about gambling. Oh, how the times have changed. For anyone who joined the work force in the 1980's, just think back to what was acceptable behavior and personal appearance back then compared to now. I'm not saying it was better or worse, I'm just saying it's very different. In today's climate, writing about horse racing and gambling will most likely cause you to be ostracized for being a bit weird, but in the spectrum of workplace weird, on the harmless side of the scale. What does any of this have to do with horse racing? I started to think about older horses when I looked at Rated R Superstar, the 1 horse in the Oaklawn Handicap, the $1.0 MM Grade 2 race at Oaklawn Park I am focused on today. This will be the 10 year old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy ($5,000 fee) 69th race. When I started handicapping horses made more starts, and it wasn't uncommon to see big start counts, but when was the last time in a Grade 2 you saw a 10 YO with that many starts? It's not often. A millionaire winner across the Oaklawn surface and approaching $2.0 MM in career earnings, I have a special place in my heart of the hard knocking veterans. His performance for his career in blacktype is just steady and consistent. Follow this link to read more about Rated R Superstar's 10th season debut from earlier this year.
Do you put time into studying the science and data behind racing?
In a 29 January 2011 published paper entitled, The Effect of Age on Thoroughbred Race Performance, authors Marshall and Marksteiner generated data on the impact to Beyer Speed Figs over time. Horses were grouped into 25 categories based on age and the table above shows the average difference between the speed figure a horse earned in a particular race and that horse’s career mean speed figure.
In Rated R Superstar's case, 55 horses made 565 total starts when they were greater than 9 years old. Speed figures for the horses running in these 565 races average 7.1 points or 0.5 standard deviations below their career mean speed figure (Diff and St Diff). This differential translates into 2.9 lengths for a 6 furlong race. It may seem obvious, but I find the curve up and the curve away to/from peak performance by age to be the interesting thing here and it fits my fact pattern for analyzing horses of different age competing against each other. Interesting yes, handicapping actionable data? I focus on recency, typically less than a year and less than past six starts, to peg current form and don't try to view the career starts and performance like this, but still, fascinating.
Ok, I clearly did not understand the assignment! Lets get after it.
It's a bit early to figure out what the track conditions will be. Weather is calling for some rain on Friday and slightly dryer Saturday.
The Essex Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 18 March 2023 at Oaklawn Park
The Gulfstream Park Mile G2: 1 Mile on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023
The Santa Anita Handicap G1: 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt 4 March 2023
Recency. These three races seem to really pick up on today's contestants abilities and possibly their deficiencies. Let's put a pin in that for now.
The Oaklawn Handicap G2: 1 1/8 Miles over Dirt for 4 YO and Up
This is a compelling field, a blanket finish style of handicap, with a mix of early speed and closing turns of foot that I expect will intersect over the last panel. I like Last Samurai if I'm singling. Two 100+ Beyer wins over this track in grade 3's over past two months. 4 wins in 9 OP starts. Only one win in 9 tries at the distance, 25% winner in 20 starts over fast dirt. He's not outclassed by much, working well, solid connections and breeding, little to dislike but could easily finish out of the money too. I'm betting that his earlier tactical will put him on the rail out of the gate and his late speed will give him a look at the wire.
The next five runners to me are all toss ups with little to differentiate them. In no order, Pletcher adds Blinkers to Charge It. The horse looked unfocused and had no real fight in the Gulfstream Park Mile. Blinkers for Pletcher is a 18% win for first in 56 tries and blinkers in general drive a 19% win in 62 tries. Far outside but big early speed. Position and pace may dictate how much fight he has this race.
Proxy is a late speed monster. 5 Place or Shows in 7 starts at this distance, 1 win. Look at his close in Santa Anita Handicap, his belated late run in Pegasus G1, right down his Past Performances. Rosario, up, won with him in The G1 Clark last November where he ran on the pace. I expect he will try something similar.
The before mentioned Rated R Superstar should not win this race but his 25 starts over OP Dirt is more races than career starts for anyone else in the field and he will bring his best.
The ageless Kent Desormeaux rode a magnificent Santa Anita Handicap with Stilleto Boy who cannot be ignored. Show in the Pegasus at 45-1 two back. 4 of 4 lifetime in the money at OP, 14 of 18 in the money on fast dirt, early speed, Could be a real disruptive force here.
Finally, Classic Causeway at 4 YO makes second dirt start after spending the back half of 3 YO campaign on the turf. $1.4 M winner from some early 3 YO success, could go either way now.
What to do with all this? Most likely I'll be watching the tote board (which has become an increasingly frustrating exercise as late money pours in with no time to react for the little guy) and looking for a value play that runs counter to my handicap. A $2 Exacta of Rated R Superstar, Stilleto Boy, Last Samurai and Proxy, with two of the longer odds covered in Win-Place and two of the shorter odds in Place only is $12. I'd like to see Charge It, who is plenty capable, have a better effort before I back again.
I'll most likely come up with 10 more permutations of this bet construction before post time, so have fun with it yourself and good luck!
