Saturday, September 27, 2008

September 27th 2008: BEL Race 6

The Beldame, 1 1/8 main track. F&M 3yo and up.

A five horse race, and I like Ginger Punch, Lemon Drop Mom and Unbridled Belle.

Ginger Punch in the 1 Post is the ML favorite at 4-5, offering no value.
Lemon Drop Mom in the 2 post is ML show at 9-2.
Unbridled Belle is on the outside and is the ML place at 3-1.
I'll watch the odds closely on this race right up to windows closing.

I like Ginger Punch's win percentage. She's drilled consistently at Belmont for three weeks. Same weight/same rider. Consistently three digit Beyer's.

Lemon Drop Mom has worked twice in September including a gaudy46 3/5 4f bullet. She picks up six pounds and her Beyer's are building to 102 range. Will I bet her at 5-1, yes!

Unbridled Belle hasn't one a G1 since last year's Beldame. She's had three workouts at Belmont this month, coming off a show to Ginger Punch and Lemon Drop at the Personal Ensign. She took the lead and couldn't finish those two a month earlier. She changes rider's today. Only sloppy start was at Breeder's Cup and she earned a 93. She's had steady Beyer's in 2008 of about 101. Where do I like her? 5-1 or 6-1.

$2 win on Lemon Drop Mom and $2 to win on Unbridled Belle. I'm saving the last $2 for something better.

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