Saturday, September 22, 2018

Anatomy of a Bet: The $100,000 Laurel Turf Cup Exacta


Hello Don Julio: Photo Gulfstream Park Twitter Feed
Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

Simple.  I don't say that to boast, I say that to point out opportunities exist to make money in this game.  In this morning's blog post, I repeatedly stated that the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup was a wide open race.  The morning line and presumptive post time chalk, Hello Don Julio looked vulnerable, but from whom?  An eleven horse field of vanilla.  For the first time perhaps ever in the long history of The Turk, I suggested an exacta bet with The Turk's top two favorites over the field.  For a $20 bet, it looked like the downside case was Hello Don Julio won and Final Copy at $3.70 odds, Renown at $5.20 or Vintage Matters at $7.20 Placed, returning me about the value of the bet.  The upside was if some of the longer prices came in Place, and $115 to $1 Cooptado (Arg) did just that returning the Turk $130 or $110 net.  Cooptado (Arg) on paper looked rough, the 8 YO hadn't hit the board in 5 races in 2018, and unraced since June.  Working at Laurel over the main track, Trainer Thomas Morley did a nice job putting him in a good spot.  His late Timeform Pace fig is 102 but that late turn of foot has not been evident in any of this year's races.

Why'd I pick the field to Place?  Again, it was wide open on paper.  My Turk Fair Line illustrates this.  Am I retiring on this win?  No, but again, The Turk says it all the time, I'm a low risk, medium reward handicapper/Investor and I just keep carving out this type of wins that are offset partially by the losses, but overall positive ROI.

Churning out a positive return on investment has become the game to me.

Have fun with whatever your game is.  Turk Out!








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