The Nomination Is In: The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf $150,000

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  Today I wanted to be excited about the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream Park, and I'm not sure excitement is the right adjective.  I'd describe the race as a good young filly, a solid older Mare and a collection of allowance and claimers.  I could have gone to California and bet in the Santa Anita Unusal Heat Turf Classic but I opted for the track I play more often, with horses, trainers and jockey's I'm also more familiar with.

When you place a bet, there are no conditions placed on it.  Sure if there is a late scratch your bet may get tossed, but no one will ask you if you were happy about the field or if you felt good about your bet.  It's neither appropriate nor does anyone care.  It's your sole job as a handicapper to rank the horses in terms of percentage chance of winning and then your sole job as a gambler to decide if there is a bet worth constructing.  Don't be seduced by the talk of "action bets" that many a horse player talk about in their books.  Go buy a lottery ticket if you need action.  Is the race worth betting?  I can answer that question from my perspective, you need to be able to answer it for yourself.  I've spoke of the opportunity costs of racing many times.  Let's assume you aren't independently wealthy for a moment.  Your disposable income is valuable, yes?  I want to make 25% on my money.  For every $100 I wager I want to make $125.  Yeah, I can make 2% in a savings account, 5% on average in equities, but I want 25%.  Why?  Because I'm going to lose, its inevitable.  Currently in 2020 I am I above that mark in my 52 Bets in 52 Weeks series, but I will lose.  Is there a bet worth making here?  Lets get after it.





You'll find updated scratches and changes and track condition here.  Assume Firm Turf.  Raki by the way is carrying 119 not 118.

I have 71.4% chance of Starship Jubilee or Beautiful Lover winning.  That's an enormous percentage of a turf 8 horse field Win odds.

I really don't see how one or both of them will finish worse than Place.  Of the remaining runners I see as having a chance to be in the money, I only have 16.8% chance of winning between Vow to Recover and Bienville Station.  Four Runners, 88.2% of the win odds.

Therein lies the opportunity.  You'll notice I saw the race about the same as the DRF handicapper and his morning line, which I remind you I have disdain for most Morning Lines and only look at them AFTER I set my fair odds and base handicap.  Can someone surprise at a good price?  Of course, it's horse racing, but is it likely?  I don't see it all.  Watch the tote board closely to see if there is any movement as post time approaches.  Only horse players are wagering this time of year, they know smart from dumb money. 

So what to do with this?  I'm going to single 7-1 to Win with 7-1-11-8 to Place, a $2 bet for $12.    The worst case scenario is they go Win-Place but I won't lose to much under that scenario.  The best case is one of them slips to Show or worse.  The absolute worst case is somehow both lose and I miss an opportunity for a home run.  I don't see it.

Pretty Simple bet, low risk, low reward.

Enjoy the racing.  Turk Out!