The Nomination Is In: The $200,000 Turf Classic at Santa Anita

Unusual Heat

 Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 16th calendar year.  That handsome fella is Unusual Heat, the most accomplished sire in the State of California at the time of his death in 2017.  While he sired the Acclamation, he also sired many others including one I always enjoyed, the Unusual Q.T. You've been handicapping a long time when you see the names of their grandsires and remember betting them.  Such is life.                                                                                                                                                                                     Today we are handicapping the $200,000 CA State Restricted  Unusual Heat Turf Classic, run at 1 1/8 miles over the grass.  Santa Anita kept the races off the turf Friday to keep the track good for today.  I'm not sure what the turf conditions will be, but I'm expecting no worse than good but we'll see.  

The Morning line field of 9 was reduced to 8, with what most likely would have been the post time favorite, The Chosen Vron, defecting to Race 1's Cal Cup Sprint.  That leaves a wonky group that isn't quite much better than $75K allowance Class.  That's OK, we don't handicap who isn't here, just who's running.  Let's get it on!

This will be a race I may not bet, it really depends on where the action goes pre race as I just don't see much overlay potential.  I have my top two with 67% chance of winning.  I'm an exacta player, so someone other than those two winning would make the payout spicier, and if both finished no higher than Show, I'd be onto something.  Aligato has late race speed and class, winning this event one year previously.  Along layoff had the 6 YO gelded Kitten's Joy return in late October and again in late November.   Third time back, and with a very sharp :59 3/5s at 5f  last workout, I'm thinking Glatt/Prat (35% winners at SA/ 26 starts) have a live one.  I really like the consistency of Carmelita's Man.  Also a late runner, 6 of 8 in the money in 2022 with 3 wins, a Place at this distance on this track in March. Hernandez, up, 27% winner at SA currently.  

Those two I think are the top two, so who could upset them?  Well, that's where it gets a bit dicey. Royal n' Rando is making a class jump, never won at the distance, only 1 turf win in 4 starts, no wins at SA, BUT 10 of 13 in the money in 2022 with 6 wins.  Won't be much better than 4 or 5 on tote board I reckon.  Coalinga Road, a 6 year old Quality Road (Turk's favorite horse all time) goes for Carla Gaines, winless in stakes in past year, 4% sprint to turf BUT 27% dirt to turf. J. Velazquez up for second straight race.  Distance shouldn't be an issue but like Royal n' Rando, should be in the 3-5 spot on tote board.  

After those two, Kings River Knight maybe the best option.  Taking a big class jump up, the 5 YO is 3 of 3 over turf. Distance shouldn't be an issue, synth to turf shouldn't be an issue, having Dettori up isn't a negative.  The gelded son of Acclamation is training sharp and ships in ready.  A late toss for me is Doc Adams.  He'll be bet but not by me for better or worse.  C+ is my kiss of death, be warned.

What might I do?  5-7-4 OVER 1-8 for $12 is tempting but I may limit my investment to 5-4 OVER 1-8 for $4.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!