The Nomination Is In: The $500,000 Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf G3 at Gulfstream Park

 

Welcome friends to The Turk blog, where we focus on turf racing, handicapping and exacta building.  My focus is narrow by choice.  I've handicapped for decades, high volume, and after all those years, turf racing emerged as my passion, and I especially like the 4 YO and Up group.  Perhaps it my European roots.  I love analyzing lots of data and big fields, unlocking the handicap into actionable information and occasionally finding gems that are undervalued by the betting public.  

I think it also fits my introverted personality to gravitate to a sport that has seen much better times, and gravitate within that sport to less popular athletes and less popular races.  I do this for me.  I'm humbled and appreciate when what I do is read and someone appreciates it, but I do this for the love of older horses with a great late turn of foot, running over a route of grass.  That simple.   It'd hard to believe but sometime in the next month I will reach 700 total blog posts since my first on 21 September 2008.  The milestone post to me is just a testament to my dedication to a sport that lets me down regularly: Hollywood and Arlington Park's closing, the throttling of race dates for Kentucky Downs, the drug controversies, it saps me.  I was an enormous Tour de France fan but the sport killed my love.  I've never let horse racing kill horse racing for me, but it's tried.  Luckily I'm an optimist who doesn't believe that Twitter is real life, that political differences shouldn't divide us and that race relations and opportunities for historically discriminated people have improved greatly since I was born in the 60's.  A $500,000 Grade 3 turf race.  These are the fun days in racing, let's get after this!

The Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Cup G3; 1 1/16 Miles at Gulfstream Park

 

I would have liked this one with a full 11 horse field, but you get what you get.  These 8 I have broken into a top heavy top three, a middle three with at least two that could get to the Place spot in my exacta, and and two I'm tossing and I feel pretty safe about that.  That gives me a base handicap that lines up pretty close with the Morning Line (which I don't look at until my handicap is done).  That's not a good thing.  If this was a N3X or OC60K early race I'd most likely not spend the time on bet construction, but the handle will be big and its worth a shot at it.  

Boxing my top 4 for a $2 bet would cost $24.  Simple, except it offers a really good chance to take $24 and turn it into $24 or worse.  The risk-reward isn't great.  I do like the idea of betting my Top 3 and singling Lady Rockstar in the Place spot, a $2 bet for $6.   I like that and I like the value.  Do I ignore Lady Goddess? Hard decision when you are hunting for big value.  Hmmm.  Let's dive in.

First of all the Turf was listed today, Wednesday 25 January, as Firm.  Looking at the weather, I don't see that much precipitation that could change that.  

Shantisara (Ire), Chad Brown's 5 YO Mare , is in my top spot in light chalk. Her best efforts, Grade 1's at KEE two and three races back, represented best Beyers but was over yielding to good turf.  Last time out over firm, was so-so as the betting favorite at 1 mile over firm KEE turf, but very mixed messages on what sort of turf she may like and in France she ran over synthetic mostly. I gave her the nod because I like her late turn of foot from an outside spot. 

The QE II Cup G1; 16 Oct 2021 1 1/8 over Yielding Turf at KEE

Only two starts in 2022.Vanned off after the Jenny Wiley G1 at KEE where she Placed. 

This is second race back since that and she's been training consistent 4f since just before XMAS. 

I like Dalika (Ger) quite a bit and can see her wiring this race. Inside post, early speed.  She has wired 7 and 9 horse fields in her last three races.  Beautiful Gr/Ro for Trainer Albert Stall Jr.

The Cardinal Stakes G3:  1 1/8 Miles over Firm Turf; 24 Nov 2022 CD.

Wakanaka (Ire) comes into GP for Trainer Mott, 5 out of 7 in the money in 2022 as a 4 YO with a G2 Win and a G1 Place.  13 of 15 in the money over turf.  Late Speed.  Tactical.  

Fall Harvest Stakes $317K; 1 Mile over Firm Turf, Breeders' Cup Saturday  5 Nov 2022.  

Of my top three, I could make a strong case for any of them.  Dalika and Wakanaka deserve top billing, but if Shantisara (Ire) returns to form, wow.  

I really only value down to Lady Rockstar (GB) and Queen Goddess for the exacta.  Lady Rockstar has big late speed and should get a nice outside look  late. Jumping in class, 11 starts and onbly $133,000 in earnings.  Last win was OC62K in June but did get Place a 1 Mile at GP on 31 Dec.

Suwannee River Stakes G3; 1 Mile Firm Turf

Queen Goddess is a 5 YO Empire Maker mare, comes in off win for Trainer Michael McCarthy.  

The Robert J Frankel G3:  1 1/8 Miles over Good Turf, SA 31 Dec; An embarrassingly easy trip.  Training sharply.  

I already tipped my hand to what I'm thinking about, but it's Wednesday and a lot can happen between now and race time.  Look for updates here or at my newly created Twitter handle, @TheTurk_Blog. 

Have fun friends.  I'll be back by Friday night with my thoughts on Race 12, the $1.0 Million Dollar Pegasus World Cup Turf International.

Turk Out!