The Nomination Is In: The Secretariat and the Beverly D and the R 9-10-11 Pick 3

Million Preview Day July 2009

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

While I'm bummed to not be at this year's edition of Million Day, I know I'll be back soon and I'm still excited to play and be apart of the action.  That's Little Turk and I hanging out on Million Preview Day 2009.  AP gave away hats that day (Little Turk wearing) and I'm sporting a Santa Anita 2008 Breeders' Cup hat.  There should be better horse hats available for fans, but sadly they are mostly junk.

In yesterday's blog posting I put up my thoughts on The Million and this morning I'm fleshing out my thoughts on at least the Pick Three that begins with Race 9, The Secretariat and continues on in Race 10, The Beverly D.

What am I looking for in Turf racers?  I like to see late turn of foot, trip information for at least the last three months of races, gas conditions and distance that the horse has had the most sucess with, and class.  I'm less interested in W-P-S results than the visual look of the race shape and what the horse was able to do with the trip and pace it was presented with.  When judging Euros I use the Timeform information available and gather as much information as I can.

Let's work our way through the video handicapping of both races first.

Let's get after this!

Working backwards, relevant video on Race 10, the 1 3/16 Mile Beverly D.


The Diana G1 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf- Sistercharlie






New York Stakes G2 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf



Jenn Wily G1 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf KEE




Belmont Oaks Invitational G1 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Athena (Ire)






2017 Beverly D Stakes G1 1 3/16 Mile Firm Turf




In Race 9, The Secretariat at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs 

Belmont Derby 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Analyze It and Hunting Horn (IRE)




Kent Stakes G3 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf: Carrick and Untamed Domain.  The former had no excuse while the later had a horrible trip.







Nasrullah Handicap 1 1/4 Miles Left Handed on Good Ground. Lucius Tiberius (Ire)




You'll find video of the American Derby G3 7 July 2018 at this link:  Dubby Dubbie, Captivating Moon,Pont Du Gard and Real Story.

You'll find a scouting report on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn here.




The cost to benefit ratio of any horizontal bet is the races that add uncertainty, and with that uncertainty, long prices in the Win Spot.  In this sequence, Race 9 to me seems the most possible to produce a >10-1 Winner and possibly>12-1.  Avoid the temptation to cover too many horses, as in my example a 5-2-4 combo at $2 is an $80 bet.  I would rather lose $16 with a chance at winning three figures than bet $80 to make $80.  I'm most likely settling on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn OVER Sistercharlie OVER Robert Bruce, Oscar Performance, Spring Quality and  Almanaar.  I'd actually be OK to $32 but you get the idea.

Have fun Friends!

Turk Out!

Little Turk: Million Day 34th Edition 2016

The Nomination Is In: The 36th Running of the Arlington Million G1

The Turk's beverage before 35th running of the Million

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our ninth year and eleventh month of providing handicapping insights to people who never asked for it.  I'm the Turk, a 52 year old bald blogger who has been handicapping since 1987.  My first time visiting Arlington was in 1985, the day the old track burned down.  I was in the US Navy stationed at Great Lakes and I was rounded up, put on a truck.  It was another 22 years before I returned and now I try to make Preview Day or the Million Day part of my annual calendar.  Circumstances this year (Family Reunion/Little Turk preparation for College) has me watching on TwinSpires TV, but I'll be back for the 37th,  God willing.

I could ramble quite a bit about Arlington Park.  It's a shame that Illinois racing isn't better.  The track is fantastic, the staff friendly, the fake dirt plays fair and the turf, in my humble opinion, is the best in North America, and its my second favorite track to play besides Kentucky Downs.  Every track has a vibe.  I've been to many facilities, big and small.  Arlington has a vibe I appreciate, it's my speed, and I wish I could go more often.

I have to give a plug to the good people at Hello Race Fans!  You absolute must check out their post for the Arlington Million.  If you are a data junkie like I am, you will go into overload.

Where is Divisidero running?  Entered at both Saratoga and Arlington Park for Saturday, I've even gone to extreme measures (tweeting the trainer) to know for sure.  By the way, an excellent article written by Natalie Voss for the Paulick Report can be found here on Trainer Kelly Rubley, Divisidero's conditioner (Voss, 2018).  I'm going to go with Daily Race Form reporting that states he's going to the Fourstar Dave at SAR.  I think he had a great shot at Arlington, but I always trust the connections know best.

 Let's get after it!



Let's take a look at some recent and not recent, still relevant video.


G1 Manhattan @BEL Firm Turf 1 1/4 Miles (June 2018)



Watch Robert Bruce (Yellow/Blue Sleeves/Yellow Cap) and watch the bump in the straight but his surge at the finish.  This was no simple 6th place finish.  With an upgraded pilot (no offense to Gaffalione at all) in I. Ortiz for Trainer Chad Brown, I make him my (light) chalk. Take another look at him here in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy where he gets the better of Spring Quality.

G3 Fort Marcy @ Belmont Firm Turf 1 1/8 Miles





G1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap on Firm Turf  1 1/8 Miles (Feb 2018)



When a 5-1 runner beats Beach Patrol and Divisidero take notice.  Almannar (GB) in the royal blue Shadwell Stables silks looked impressive with the late turn of foot.  The 6 YO gelding came back and won a 100K OC at Belmont on Belmont Stakes Day.

G1 United Nations @ Monmouth Firm Turf 1 3/8 miles (30 June)



Money Multiplier (royal blue with white stars) ran a good race against 23-1 Funtastic.  With an extra 1/8 of a mile.....

And a few looks at Oscar Performance:  7 Wins in 12 Turf Ties, 2 of 2 at the distance and $1.9 MM lifetime earnings for the 4 YO.

G1 Secretariat Stakes 2017 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf (turn sound down-bad music alert)




G3 Poker Stakes @ Belmont Firm Turf 1 mile




You can find race replays for Arlington Park through this link.  Of note is July 7th, Million Preview Day with G3 Arlington H. and Stars and Stripes.

I can't say I have a strong opinion on this field.  I've essentially place the runners in three buckets:

Robert Bruce (Chi)/10
Oscar Performance/11
Spring Quality/2

All I think will be near front of pace and all I think can win.  Spring Quality, a Quality Road 6 YO is lightly raced but I'm a big fan of Mr. George Strawbridge and his Augustin Stable and how they train and prepare these amazing turf runners.  80 years old, a classy man.

Almanaar (GB)/3
Money Multiplier/8

They can win, but both need things to go their way.  No reason to not believe they will receive some prize,  Place-4th.

Deauville (Ire)/9

In the lead as the favorite in last year's edition and couldn't stay on.  Did another year improve him? Capable, but he hasn't won in over 10 races.  I'm betting that the uninitiated flock to the Euro invader and I need him to lose for me to win.

Century Dream (Ire)/5

First time lasik, 7 time turf winner, 4 Yo Cape Cross (Ire).  he's been coming up empty in one mile straights.  Won his last LH and has won at the distance.  I dunno right now but would I be surprised if he was Show-5th?  No.


Finally,  insert handicapping every time Jarvis says practice and this is my weekend handicapping mood!




Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Ellis Park Kentucky Downs Preview Day

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, nearly 10 full years and over 630 blog post offers to a reading public that never asked for such dreadful writing.  

I'll be honest, I’m not sure The Turk, late in our 9th year of blogging and with over 600 blog posts, has ever blogged Ellis Park Racing.  The Turk has zero bias against the good people of Ellis Park and their fine track, I'm just not sure I ever found the occasion to handicap and gamble there.  

Sunday's Kentucky Downs Preview Day gives me just such occasion.  Ellis Park racing secretary Dan Bork conceived the idea, envisioning Preview Day as “…being a win-win-win for the two tracks and their horsemen. Hence, the Ellis stakes are designed as launching pads to lucrative stakes at Kentucky Downs’ elite meet that runs Sept. 1, 6, 8, 9 and 13th.   Following a concept popularized by the Breeders’ Cup, the four winners of the Preview stakes are guaranteed a spot in the corresponding race at Kentucky Downs, as well as having their entry fees waived, a savings of $3,000 or $4,000 for the owners, depending on the race” (Ellis Park, 2018). 

I fell in love with Kentucky Downs and their quirky short meet, all turf schedule. The racing to me is phenomenal and as a gambler, it represents an incredible mental challenge.  It comes just after Saratoga and Del Mar wrap up and is some of the finest turf racing in North America, regardless who comes. 

The weather in Henderson, Kentucky looks like it was good Saturday and will be good on Sunday, so expect firm turf.  The turf oval is exactly one mile.  For the classic distance, the gate is at the top of the stretch. I'm primarily focused on Races 6 and 8 with Race 6 the Turf Cup Preview at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs and Up and Race 8  The Mile Preview for 3 YOs and Up.

Let's get after it!

Right off the bat, its clear Trainer Brian Cox has come ready to dominate.  In Race 6, an 8 horse field enters the classic distance route over grass.  Arklow, the 4 YO son of Arch will be the post time favorite and is my chalk for the win. The distance is something he's never raced at but is a cutback from 1 1/2 miles last time out.  He has the best late turn of foot.  Cox with Bridgmohan up are 38%  winners in 32 starts at EIP.  Cox's has great numbers period: 29% with 2nd off 45-180 days off, 28% turf winners in 552 tries, 29% route winners in 773 tries and 24% stakes winner in 229 tries. 

I show myself singling Arklow, but not completely sure I'll be doing that as he's no iron pipe lock for the win.  I have a trio listed just below:  Tizzarunner and Sir Dudley Digges are Classy while Harv Won't Tap represents late speed and value.  Harv Won't Tap is the classic overlay if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, not for Win but Place or Show.  The 4 YO has solid late speed and appears to be improving for Trainer Stidham. 

Flatlined and Rated R Superstar aren't that different and each has excellent late turns of foot as well.  Rated R Superstar goes over grass for just the second time and I can't see the ML 9-2 justification.  Trainer McPeek's Dirt to Turf  is 10% in 80 tries and he's only a 9% Turf Winner in 214 tries.  Minor prize only.  

In Race 8 at 1 Mile, Mr. Misunderstood does look like very heavy chalk: 9 wins in 12 Turf Starts, 4 wins in 5 starts at 1 Mile, and enters off G2 Wise Dan win beating World Approval who is pretty good at the turf racing thing.  Another Cox/Bridgmohan combo.  Cowboy Culture, a 4 YO Quality Road colt enters also for Cox.  First start of 2018.

Newly gelded Parlor is 8 of 12 in the money over grass and has the race best Timeform US late Pace fig of 124.  He's been a 82-87 Beyer horse until last race out 97 (Also the Wise Dan G2).  Beware regression. Seim Reip  is a classy under performer.  Very big early speed, the only question will be for how long he can carry it.  4 wins in 7 tries at 1 Mile and 6 of 7 in the money at the distance is encouraging. 

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with the betting.  My initial thoughts working backwards is to single  Mr.Misunderstood in the 8th and slot the 9-2-6-1-8 for a $10 bet and hope for some value in the Place position.  In the 6th, the easy button is a $2  7-6-3-2  box for $24 but I don't like spending $24 on an exacta so I may just go 7-6 OVER 7-6-2 3 for $12. 

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Whitney G1 at Saratoga

Diversify: Photo credit by Susie Raisher with appreciation

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, a Thorofan Handicapper's Corner special edition. Thorofan is is the only national fan organization created specifically to serve the Thoroughbred horse racing fan, so if you aren't a member, please consider joining a community of like minded horse players and fans.

The Turk loves the handicap division, even when it's a hot mess.  With Pavel pointing at the Pacific Classic on August 18th, one week before the Travers Stakes, it's not my inclination to lament who isn't here.  My job as handicapper is to read the tea leaves before me for this race and worry about who will contend at the classic distance three weeks later.  Do you look ahead?  I do, I can't help it, especially with my tickets in hand for Travers Day and Mrs. Turk and I planning our Breeders' Cup trip as well.  I'm hoping three weeks from now will be drier than this weekend should be.

Will speed carry or will the track play fair and give closers a chance?  I like to keep my eye on what the NYRA lists as  "track trends" and I'm leaning towards speed favoring, especially if they get the rain they are expecting Friday and part of Saturday.  I'm going to assume the track is a bit sloppy but speed carrying.   I may adjust that thinking after watching some two turn runs tomorrow and early on the card.  On 7/26 and 7/27 when the track was listed as sloppy and sealed speed was dominant.

Where is the early speed:  Timeform US Early Pace figs in the Whitney are Diversify/6 @127;  Dalmore/3@121; Backyard Heaven/2@117; and no one else is greater than 100.

Let's get after this!




When I handicap a track I expect to not play fairly, I focus strongly on what the pace and race shape should look like. I have a mental picture for this race forming:  Dalmore and Diversify are in front on the first turn followed closely by Mind Your Biscuits, Backyard Heaven and Tapwrit and strung behind them are Good Samaritan, Discreet Lover and McCracken. By the top of the stretch, I'm imagining a pretty clean silk Joel Rosario up on Diversify with Dalmore dropping, Mind your Biscuits slowing slightly, inexperienced Backyard Heaven wanting the slopfest to end and Tapwrit and Good Samaritan moving forward. 

I don't like being the public handicapper predicting chalk, but I think chalk wins convincingly here and I'll make my money singling Win and looking for value in Exacta and Trifecta.

The modestly bred New Yorker Diversify was dominant in the Suburban last time out.  9 wins in 13 fast dirt starts and a >400 Tomlinson for Wet Tracks.  A win over the main track in a state restricted romp in 2018.


The Suburban G2 : 1 1/4 Miles 7 July



Over a fast track, I think I'd be looking at Backyard Heaven to upset Diversify.  His Stephen Foster Handicap is the sort of race you can draw a line through, not as bad as Twitterverse thought but not the results expected after a G2 Alysheba romp.  Only his 6th start, boom or bust, I could easily see him in the far back of the pack or on the edges of the exotics. 


The Stephen Foster Handicap G1; 1 1/8 miles 16 June



 It's hard to be negative in any way over Mind Your Biscuits last race out in the Met Mile.   The 5 YO is going two turns for just the first time and I tip my hat to Trainer Chad Summers for that.  He clearly looms and I think the track should aid him.  He has not been good at Saratoga at shorter distances hes more suited for, so is this just a dice toss?  Possibly.  I'll be covering him in Place and Show with some longer prices and won't be upset if he drops back. 

The Met Mile G1:  9 June



Looking at prices that could surprise for Place or Show, I like Good Samaritan.  Mott's runner will be coming fast at the end of this race and as long as he has an open path he could easily be flying at the end with lots of speed to run at. 


New Orleans H. G2; 1 1/8 Miles 24 March




With the handicap out of the way, it's a bit early but lets start thinking about the bet. 

A $2 Exacta with 6 (Diversify) OVER 1 and 7 (Tapwrit and Good Samaritan) for $4 bucks is my initial thought.  It's not sexy, but these sort of low cost bets are what can really make your day and meet.  If I'm looking at a Trifecta, a $2 bet of 6 OVER 1-4-7-2 (Tapwrit, Biscuits, Backyard and Good Samaritan) over 1-4-7-2-3 (Add Dalmore) for $32 bucks gets my early nod. 

Have fun with it friends!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The G1 Haskell and the G3 Oceanport at Monmouth Park

Good Magic:  Photo by Jamie Newell/Horsephotos.com

Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

10 years ago I handicapped the Haskell in between games of Little Turk's U-8 soccer team's tournament.  Today I was watching the same team, the U-19 Storm kicking ass in the same tournament and in between games I was handicapping the Haskell.  I love the symmetry of life and I love how many memories are anchored to my horse racing infatuation.  I was just talking to Poppa Turk the other day about the good time we had at the Travers Stakes when Grasshopper almost upset Street Sense.  Without missing a beat Little Turk interjected, "...that was 2007".  I love the track.  There is a special magic to the way the track makes me forget my work stresses, my problems, and time disappears,  True relaxation.

I'm enjoying my re-engagement with handicapping.  While I've been blogging over ten years now, I didn't handicap much at all from last years Breeders' Cup until a few weeks ago.  I like to take handicapper holidays now.  when I engage with something, I do it with everything I have.  I love my job, I give everything I have mentally to it, and my handicapping is is what helps me freshen and recharge.  The next few months are my favorite part of the horse racing season anyways, so I'm ready to get after lots of race days.  Let's go!





I'm going to gamble most of the Haskell card and these two races are just a slice of a horizontal betting sequence I'll be assembling.  Expect good weather.  You'll find scratches and changes here.

In the Haskell, I am singling Good Magic and I think this accomplished horse, now the best 3 YO still in training, should win this race 3 out of 4 times.  Trainer Brown is 30$ off a 60-180 day break. and Good Magic has been on the bench since breaking under pressure at Pimlico in the Preakness.




I like Core Beliefs, the son of  Quality Road coming in off the Ohio Derby win.



I think Lone Sailor and Bravazo are right there with Core Beliefs.

Lone Sailor is winless in 8 starts on dirt and has one win in 11 starts lifetime.  Training well for Conditioner Tom Amoss, with Joe Bravo up.  The best late Timeform Pace of 117.  Bravazo, the Calumet Farms runner for D. Wayne Lucas, is a solid fast dirt race horse, nothing fancy.   His signature race is the Risen Star, winning at 21-1 post time odds.



I plan on betting an exact with Good Magic on Top and two value horses below, like Lone Sailor and maybe value, maybe not Core Beliefs. 

In the Oceanport, I like the late turn of foot of Synchrony;  7 of 7 in the money over grass, 12 of 14 in the money lifetime, this 4 YO son of Tapit cuts back in distance.

6 Yo Force the Pass is 13 of 15 in the money on turf and has a $1.3 MM career earnings.  A hard knocking veteran.  Respect.

Irish Straight has to be considered.  NJ Homebred for Isabelle Tomaso, 8 of 10 in the money at Monmouth.  I might have him too low in my base handicap. 

48 race combatant Kharafa, a 9 YO, hasn't won in a long while but possesses late speed and could hit the board.  Dr. Mounty, a 5 YO Street Sense, is on the edges of the exotic tickets. 

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet, but the handicapping is done and I'm going to sleep on it.

Have fun.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is in: The G2 Bowling Green and Jim Dandy and first weekend recap

Sadlers' Joy ar SAR: (c) NYRA/Chelsea Durand/Adam Coglianese Photography

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  To those that know me, welcome back and to any new readers, thank you for visiting.  The Turk Blog is in our tenth year of handicapping Graded Stakes Racing in the United States and Canada.  I'm a handicapper first and a bettor second.  I don't consider myself a "tout", quite frankly hate the term, and if my 30+ years of handicapping has taught me anything, it has been to stay humble.

My primary target today is a Pick 3 beginning with Race 8, the G1 Vanderbilt Stakes.  I may start that P3 with Race 9, the G2 Bowling Green and end it with an OC Turf race with a big field instead of trying to read the tea leafs on the Vanderbilt.  Regardless, my focus early is on the Bowling Green and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, so let's get after it!

I honestly never understood how people could handicap at the track.  After taking a course a few semesters ago on how people learn, I realized that my process requires quiet.  I get up early and handicap with a cup of coffee and a very quiet house and I generally do pretty well.  I wish I could be that guy in Section K of the Clubhouse scribbling away but it's not.  Know thyself!  I think I know myself pretty well, and boy do I love gutty and honest turf runners like Sadlers' Joy pictured above. I don't know if he'll win or not, but I know he'll show up and contest the route of grass.







Sadlers' Joy is 3 of 4 in the money at SAR, 3 of 4 in the money in 2018, 66% of the time in the money over turf and 71% of the time in the money at this distance.  He'll be dragging behind the pace before his speed comes with a very late turn of foot.  Trip is so key.  Castellano is up while Leparoux is on the long shot Glorious Empire (Ire).  Typical effort seen below in the Manhattan G1.

Money Multiplier finishes in Place, alot.  33% Place Finisher, 65% lifetime in the money.  Trainer Chad Brown with I. Ortiz, up, are 28% winners at SAR and Brown is a 27% Turf winner.  Ok, not stunning effort in the United Nations I posted below.

Hi Happy (Arg) has been a fun horse to watch this year.  4 of 4 in the money in 2018.  He'll be the one that Sadlers' Joy will have to race past if he wants to win.  Take a look at him repulsing Sadler's Joy in the G1 ManOWar below.

I like Bigger Picture and Highland Sky with late speed to possibly get into the ticket.  It's hard to not like a Mott horse but 4 YO Channel Maker I need to see more from but no denying his late speed either.


G1 United Nations





G1 Manhattan





G1 ManOWar en Espanol for Hi Happy (Arg)






In the Jim Dandy we are faced with a five horse field, of which 50% odds of winning have been placed on the 5 horse Vino Rosso.  I'm feeling contrarian and I'm making a case of Mark Casse's Flameaway.  Watch him crumble badly here at the top of the stretch.


The G3 Ohio Derby




This is a good horse, a Scat Daddy Ontario Bred. Reride should be the only other early speed.

Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial and is a solid Curlin, but 1-1 odds? Let's look at the Tampa Derby where he finished  up the track from the Place finisher, Flameaway.





I take nothing away from Vino Rosso, he didn't set his own odds, Less experienced players may want to just single Vino Rosso in a multi race exotic horizontal bet.  I'm less interested in winning small as I am in risking small to make big.  I'll be curious where his odds are at post time. 

Another Curlin, Tenfold should not be completely discounted. 


I'll be building bets later today and you'll find my thoughts on Twitter later (you can find me on the link in the right header of my blog). 

Last week's Blog Post I featured just two races, the Diana and the CCA Oaks. 

While I "won" both bets, I hunted for value in the CCA Oaks and didn't get it.  On $16 wagered I returned $55.60 for a $39.60 profit. 

The G1 Diana at SAR 7/21/18:  DRF PDF Chart

I really like that Sistercharlie (Ire) and so did the bettors.  It was me being less concerned about a small wager return or a loss and inserting Ultra Brat and Hawkmoor, the 4th and 5th horses in my handicap, to finish in the Place exacta spot that made the bet.  Once you reach that place as a gambler that you'll sacrifice capital for larger strikes you'll....get humbled back or go broke!  Always bet within your means.

G1 CCA Oaks at SAR 7/22; DRF PDF Chart

I'd like to wish Justify a happy retirement as well.  I've now been alive for 5 Triple Crown Winners and it's nice that I most likely will never have a time in my life again where there are no living Triple Crown winners, as that was a bit depressing.  I wagered $556 in the Triple Crown Season on almost no handicapping as I was deep into my final semester of school and I am also wildly busy at work.  I returned $857.25 for a $301 profit.  While not a great ROI, I considered it easy money.  My only losing bet was a Preakness bet against Justify.  Like I said, I'd rather lose now and then but take swings at long balls because if I would have connected that would have been a four figure payout. 

Turk's Twin Spires Account Bet log: Triple Crown 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nominations are In: The Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 1 CCA Oaks at Saratoga

Dacita winning the Diana in 2016; Photo NYRA

Welcome friends to the Turk and the (now not so) Little Turk blog, now in our eleventh season of blogging about thoroughbred horses.  To anyone that knows The Turk, they know that he likes Turf and he likes older runners.  Call me old fashioned.  I got my start in handicapping in 1986.  I was already a horse racing fan, growing up around family members like my dear Aunt Rosie who loved the ponies.  In 1986 I found myself living in Saratoga Springs on Jumel Place, a short walk from the track, and one day I grabbed the form and....had no idea what I was doing.  In Turk fashion, I read, I read, and I read a bit more to learn from others what I didn't know myself.  My handicapping combines elements of Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz and Robert J. Summers, The Buffalo News "Happy Handicapper", Rest in Peace.

 I like to think of my handicapping as a derivative of each of these gentleman handicappers, clumped together into Turk style.  I like data.  I watch video, I crunch fractional split times, and my greatest strength is combining good handicapping with solid betting strategy.  I haven't blogged much in 2018 as I was finishing an MBA.  My MBA armed me with all kinds of new techniques to know that these race track investments are highly speculative.  You can say you want to scratch out a 15% ROI, but the track smacks that type of talk out of you quickly.  I ride streaks of 500% ROIs and streaks of -500% ROI's.  It happens.  I'm happy to break even, scratch out a small profit, because for me, I'm here for the relaxation it brings me and the thrill of the animals. I'm here for mares like Dacita, pictured above, a beautiful Beverly D G1 winner and Scat Daddy daughter, winning the Diana in 2016 for Chad Brown, looking to win this race for a third straight year, which I think he has a great shot at today.

I've featured the Diana for today and the CCA Oaks for tomorrow at the Spa.  Let's get after it!





You can find the track conditions, scratches and changes and equipment changes for NYRA/Saratoga here.  Today looks bone dry BUT beginning later tonight and it looks like tomorrow will be wet.  You'll find the Saratoga Springs hour by hour weather here.

With a seven horse field in the Diana, my first thought is I have two of Chad Brown's three entries one-two with Sistercharlie and A Raving Beauty, with Brendan Walsh's 4 YO 2X Saratoga winner Proctor's Ledge the best upset candidate.

Sistercharlie (Ire) has the best Timeform US Pace Fig late at 131.  6 of 7 in the money on Turf and 7 of 8 in the money lifetime.  Brown is 27% over a route of grass.  Lost by a head last time out to Fourstar Crook in the G2 New York.  Sistercharlie was 28 lengths back, yes 28 lengths and was coming late. With 1/8 less, with this cutback she'll need to be closer, obviously!  You have to watch this video.






German bred A Raving Beauty is a 5 YO Mastercraftsman (Ire).  Ortiz and Brown are 29% winners together.  Two wins in two starts in North America.  Edged Proctor's Ledge in the G1 Just a Game in early June.




I think Proctor's Ledge likes softer grass than she'll find today with her last two wins over good turf and her last win over firm turf six starts back.

Ultra Brat comes in off a win over soft turf in the Galorette G3 at Pimlico.




The 5 YO Uncle Mo Motion trained runner is 3 of 4 in the money in 2018.

Hawksmoor (Ire) in those  Barbaro silks of Lael Stables has the best Timeform US early pace fig at 114.  Trained by Arnauld Delacour, if you're looking for a price this isn't a bad one.

I'm going to keep it simple with a $2 Exacta 1-(7 and 5) (Sistercharlie over Hawksmoor and Ultrabrat) for $4.

A rather small 5 filly field will challenge each other in Sunday's Grade 1 CCA Oaks G1.  Just because, let's go off on a tangent and watch Ruffian set the race record when it was a 1 1/2 mile race at Belmont. 1975.  I was 9. I looked forward to reading Sports Illustrated every week.  I think it was a good way to live, but hard to beat the instant information age 9 YO's live in now.




Midnight Bisou, a Midnight Lute, is my tepid chalk.  A big win under big money Mike Smith in the Grade 2 Mother Goose last time out.  A 4 horse affair.




Monomoy Girl will be the post time favorite, of this I am sure.  7 win sin 8 starts and 8 of 8 in the Money lifetime for the Kentucky Oaks winner. Dominant that day.



I like Eskimo Kisses late speed and Chocolate Martini is a solid, not spectacular filly.  Gio Game shouldn't be a factor. 

$2 Exacta Box:  2-4-3 for $12. 

I handicapped the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar only to be typing this blog and have at least 4 horses scratch in a 10 horse field, including Accelerate.  Yawn. 

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!