The Nomination Is In: The Marshua's River G3 at Gulfstream Park

Andina Del Sur (Chestnut Mare) : Elsa Lorieul Photo Credit

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

Like many things in life, horse racing is as divided into cliques and social groupings.  I belong to what people a Tout.

tout¹

/tout/

verb

1. 1.

   attempt to sell (something), typically by pestering people in an aggressive or bold manner.

   "Jim was touting his wares"

1. 2.

   NORTH AMERICAN

   offer racing tips for a share of any resulting winnings.

noun

1. 1.

   a person soliciting custom or business, typically in an aggressive or bold manner.
2. 
   
3. 
   
4. 
   
5. 
   
6. 
   
7. 2.

   NORTH AMERICAN

   a person who offers racing tips for a share of any resulting winnings.

While I'm not a big fan of being called a "tout" it closely fits the definition per the Oxford Dictionary.  The key difference? I'm not offering advice for part of the winnings.  I'm not a Pink, Yellow Sheet, etc etc.  I offer my handicaps and bet constructions on random races for pure pleasure and enjoyment. Call me a tout if you like, but I'd prefer horse racing fan and hack handicapper!

Lets get after this race today, a 1 1/16 Mile turf event at Gulfstream for 4 YO and up Fillies and Mares.







The weather at Gulfstream for Friday and Saturday seems pretty dry.  I'd expect firm turf.  On Friday Morning the turf was listed as Firm.  You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions here.

Lets start as always with a little applicable video handicapping.

29 Nov 2019; AQA. 1 1/16 Miles good Turf. Forever Together $150K

Get a look at Andina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye




14 December 2019; GP 1 Mile firm Turf. My Charmer $100K

Very solid race from deep traffic for Munchkin Money for Show.



19 December 2019; GP 1 Mile good Turf.  OC25k.

Solid run by Malkia for owner/trainer Laura Cazares




I think the wild card is Magic Star.  On a class basis, she wins before the race begins.  4 YO daughter of Scat Daddy.  Trained by Chad Brown with I Ortiz Jr. Up, a 29% win combo at GP.  Last raced  26 October,. Brown wins 23% off 61-180 day layoffs. Only third start of her career but if she can figure it out this year, wow what upside.  She'll need to show real maturity with this group.

Can't say I had very different feelings than the morning line, as you can see I most tracked similar thoughts with possible exception of being less bullish on Sweet Bye and Bye and Maroubra (Fr).

I'm expecting a workmanlike Andina Del Sur to be workmanlike  Nothing fancy for the 5 YO Giant's Causeway, 11 of 17 in the money on Turf, 5 of 8 in the money lifetime at the distance, zero wins in five GP starts, ouch, but she's has 4 of 5 in the money at GP.

I like Munchkin Money and her resilience.  7 YO trained by Clement isn't the fastest or the classiest, but a nice late turn of foot.  2 wins in 3 GP starts, the NY bred should be in the money.

Sweet Bye and Bye is productive: 5 of 6 in the money 2019, 11 of 13 in the money lifetime, but tossing two off the turf dirt affairs,. this mare finishes 11 of 11 in the money.  7 of 7 in the money over turf. 5-2 Morning Line, I'm not sure I am that impressed but she's good.  Her and Adina Del Sur will be battling in third straight race.  Trainer Klesaris is winless in two Graded Stakes in past rolling year.

I most likely will look at a few Exacta's;  a 5-7-3-4 $2 exacta is worth $24, too rich really for a budget gambler looking for value.  Something possibly like 4-5 OVER 2-3-4-5-7 $2 exacta for $16 might be my taste, or Adina Del Sur and Sweet Bye and Bye boxed and over Magic Star and Munchkin Money.

This is the 2nd of my 52 Bets for 2020 Series.  Last week's race and blog entry was The San Gabriel at Santa Anita.



The base handicap was pretty darn good.  The interesting thing was how little Desert Stone was respected on the tote board, going off 7-1, 5th best in the field of 7.

I swung for the fences a bit by placing Overdue on top of a win bet and exacta. That was a $16 overall losing bet.  Betting my Base Handicap would have been a much better exercise as that returned $44.20 on a $2/$16 bet.







Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The San Gabriel G2 at Santa Anita

Cleopatra's Strike (Benoit Photo)

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, now in our 13th calendar year of providing handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it.

I generally take a handicappers holiday from Breeders' Cup until sometime in mid March each year, as I'm not much of a 'Road to the Kentucky Derby' fella anyway.  I like the turf runners and I like the 4 year old and up group.  All that said and I took what was essentially a handicappers holiday that lasted the better part of a year.  This sport, to anyone who plays it, wears you down.  From the appalling number of racetrack fatalities to the greed and actions of a few who prioritize their own profits over the livelihood of the sport in general (I'm looking at you CDI), it wears me down.  I love the horses, I love the backside and the trainers and connections to feed this sport its life, and ultimately, I love to analyze the races and occasionally wager on my skill at doing this.  As long as there is horse racing, and as long as I'm breathing, there will be a Turk handicapping and blogging, and yes, that's a threat.

Let's kick off 2020 with a group of four year old and older runners over a route of grass, The San Gabriel at Santa Anita.






Early season you end up with a mix of horses in very different places in their condition.  That creates uncertainty as to what the trainers intentions are in this race, as you have to ask is this a 2nd effort off a freshening and the season is ready to go or is the trainer shaking some dust off and is content with using the race as a glorified workout.  It might be a Grade 2 race but you also have to really question, are these grade 2 quality turf runners or a hodgepodge of available legs to fill out an early January card.  There is a reason I'm normally slumbering at this time of the year, too much uncertainty in the horses and trainer's intent.

There is only one real video I'm interested in watching prior to analyzing, the 1 1/2 mile Hollywood Turf Cup G2 at Del Mar in early December.  The race had a solid field, much better than here and contained the 2-3-4 horse from today's field.


1 Dec 2019 Del Mar; 1 1/2 Mile Firm Turf Hollywood Turf Cup G2



Ok I lied, one more video....Majestic Eagle willingly yet just out of the money.

30 November 2019 Del Mar; 1 1/16 Good Turf Seabiscuit Handicap G2



I can't say I'm enamored with the field or the betting potential of this race.  I like to complete the handicap, the base handicap, and then consider what would make this a bet worth making.  What is a "bet worth making?"  If you are in this game you have learned magic over time, a trick called "how to turn a big pile of money into a smaller pile of money."  That's clearly a magic trick you want to avoid.  What is your "Opportunity Cost?"  Financial types describe opportunity cost as the loss of potential gains from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.   Without an MBA, this simply means if I invest in Race 8 at SA and I lose my investment, what did I lose by not investing in Race 8 at Gulfstream or Fair Grounds? Most people are not betting (investing) the way most of the betting advice books are written:  Bet same amounts or percentage of your betting capital consistently across all the races  over time.  Most bettors in my opinion are on again/off again.  Speaking for myself, I bet just a handful of races per week and I look at the opportunities that present themselves and try to find the opportunity that represents the best chance to make the most money.  When I say this race isn't worth betting I mean I have no real overlays of significance and I expect the betting public to see the race exactly as I do.  You can see in the Column labeled ML or Morning Line, I pretty much have them ranked per Morning Line.  (I handicap and set my base handicap BEFORE I look at Morning Lines.  I find that the ML adds a bias to my thinking that I don't want to have.  That's a discussion for another day.) Where will the value come from?  It will come from a) not over betting and b) a bit of a price in the mix. 

As always watch the turf conditions and the scratches and changes, and by all means don't rush in a bet, study the tote board and see where the public is pegging a horse.  Funny things happen at the race track and lines can move and suddenly an overlay presents itself.

From a base handicap perspective I like Cleopatra's Strike.  The 7 YO gelded son of Smart Strike is Canadian bred and trained by Phillip D'Amato.  Cutting back in distance,, 2nd off a layoff.  A solid G2 win at SA at 1 1/4 in late September.  2 of 2 in the money at SA, 10 of 18 in the money lifetime on Turf and 3 of 4 in the money as a 6 YO. 

I like Desert Stone (Ire) a bit more than Majestic Eagle but it's a tiny bit.  Desert Stone is racing in 8th straight graded stakes with one place and two shows.  5 of 8 in the money at SA, 6 of 15 in the money over turf with a low Tomlinson of 273.  1 win in 4 starts at the distance.  The trainer Baltas with 29% off +180 day layoff (off since late May 2019).  Late turn of foot good and stretching out from normal mile distance.  I suspect he may drop to 5-1 from 3-1 ML.  Majestic Eagle also off 45-180 day layoff, something Trainer Drysdale wins only 6% of the time.  5 Places in 10 SA starts.  8 of 17 Win-Places over turf lifetime.  33% winner in 6 starts at distance.  Drysdale/Bejarano 40% winners at SA in a small sample size.

Overdue and Chosen Vessel represent possibly the best value you will find on the board.  Overdue is 4 YO gelding with Mike Smith up for trainer D'Amato.  Cutting back from 1 1/2 miles his last win was at this distance at this track in early October.  6-1 ML, could slip to 7 or 8 to 1.  Class test.    Chosen Vessel has similar class issue. First start at the distance.  Trainer Dollase winless last calendar year in graded stakes, trying only 3 times.  Flat running style. 

I'm discounting Acker completly.  North County Guy I could easily lump in with Overdue and Chosen Vessel BUT you can't cover everybody. 

My initial thoughts is to place a $10 win bet on Overdue as well as bet Overdue above Cleopatra's Strike, Desert Stone and Majestic Eagle, a $2 Exacta for $6.  $16 total investment.

We'll see how I feel after watching the tote board tomorrow.  This only works if I'm getting better value than 6-1  on Overdue. 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In; The Red Smith G3 at Aqueduct

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for inviting me to share my thoughts with you today.

This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap.  It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November.  You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers.  You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing.  All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation:  Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and quite frankly very few of them I have played this year.  It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement)  to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.

Let's get after it!


The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion.  You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather Friday/Saturday is for rains to end around 4 PM Friday and be pretty dry and windy after that.  The inner turf track is listed as Good right now, I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today.  This is an inner turf race, you'll find a press release here describing the new inner turf course which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track.  I have never played it, but take into account the turns are tight and the field is big.  The race does not start in the chute.

I'd argue the finish line is off a bit but you get the idea.






Sadler's Joy on pure class, current form, solid connections.  If I bet the race I'll most likely single him but I really need to get a feel from the tote board what the value proposition is on an exacta or trifecta.  Comes in off two solid Grade 1 efforts.  His late speed, tactical speed and the race distance should allow him to close but there is a chance he made be further back at the top of the stretch than he may normally like.  Again, based on tote board, I may cover him in place and show but a lot of that depends on the price I get for the four horse group I have in yellow.

I'll work backwards.  Red Knight is intriguing but may come to odds with a shorter price than morning line.  I love the Alvarado/Mott 25% strike rate at AQA with 72 starts.  Cutting back off a win.  Ran last year's edition of race (5th).




Roger Attfield's Tiz a Slam is training exceptionally well at Woodbine and ships in for this.  Late speed, cutback distance.  I don't care for gate position so his trip will have so much to do with his outcome.



I really like Nakamura.   Training well for Conditioner Motion, this 4 YO son of Motion's most famous trainee, Animal Kingdom (although Turk's favorite was Shared Account, daughter of another Turk Favorite Pleasantly Perfect- I think I digress) I like the late speed.  5 of 5 In the money in 2019 (one bump from 4th from DQ), 10 of 12 in the money over grass.

A million dollar purchase, Marzo has earned $263,000 in 16 lifetime races, the gelding goes for Trainer Michael Maker after bouncing through alot of barns.  7 of 9 in the money in 2019, 7 of 8 in the money over turf, alot of potential in the right hands and patience level.




Glorious Empire is of course dangerous.  8 YO deserves  to wind down soon and this may be the swan song.  6-1 morning line seems generous, I don't see him in the top four.

Red Right Hand is interesting.  6 of 7 in the money in 2019, early tactical speed, I question if the gelded son of Looking at Lucky is good enough, fast enough, to step forward and beat the top of my chart.  I don't think so, yet.

Another that is very interesting to me at the start of 2020 will be 4 YO Petit Fils (Fr) trained by Christophe Clement.  Clement is 9% first time Lasix, 10% First Time Trainer, 4% first time North America.  This talented gelding I will have my eye on next few starts.

This is purely a tote board play for me.  I feel pretty strongly that this is Sadler's Joy race to lose.  I will need to believe the tote board would reward me for his misfortune.  I'd love to see him get bet down to 6-5 or better and then I would come in with a box 1-3-4-8, a $2 Exacta for $24.

I think that's my base handicap and bet.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Turf Mile at Keeneland

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now beginning our twelfth year.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing us the opportunity to opine on what we love, turf racing. 

My readers and friends and family know that I have been sour on horse racing most of this year.  I needed a break.  The bad press, the self inflicted screw ups, the small fields and my perceived lack of general interest from the race tracks and the people that horde over this sport for the average fan had left me questioning my life's choices.  I'd love to tell you I'm over that, but I'm not.  Watching Santa Anita, and most of California racing, flounder in their own missteps still leaves me jaded.  The one thing I do love in this sport is turf racing and I've never soured on the horses.  I have a real soft sport for the cagey turf runners in their late careers that can still find that late turn of foot that makes you need to remember them, to account for their pace and positioning.  Similar to my Catholic Church which has been screwed up royally by the actions of flawed humans, so has horse racing, but the one thing humans can't screw up for me is the horses themselves and the hard knocking honest efforts.  Let's get after this!






That's quite a field, not too much quality but far from lacking and no real clunkers.  The weather looks relatively dry and warm over the next few days and Saturday before getting wetter Sunday.  You'll find turf conditions and scratches and changes here.

Let's start with a video review of last races.


The Tourist Mile; 31 August 2019; Firm KD.  Next Shares/1, First Premio/9, Real Story/14




Secretariat G1; 10 August 2019; Firm 1 Mile; AP.  Van Beethoven/2 and Valid Point/4




Arlington Million G1; 10 August 2019; 1 1/4 Mile Firm; AP.  Bandua/3



Del Mar Mile  G2; 18 August 2019; Firm   Bowies Hero/5



Vanderbilt Stakes G1; 27 July 2019; 6f Fast Dirt; SAR  Diamond OOps/7



Oettingen-Renned G2; 1 September 2019; Good Turf 1 Mile; Baden Germany.  Vintager(GB)



Prix du Moulin de Longchamp G1; 8 Sept. 2019; 1 Mile Good/Soft; Robin of Navan (FR)/10



Bernard Baruch Handicap G2; 2 Spet 2019; 1 1/16 Mile Soft. SAR. March to the Arch/11





I never BS my readers:  I don't have a strong opinion on this race.  That doesn't mean much because my handicaps are built with the best information my eyes see and the data that is available, but from a betting perspective, because it's so close, I didn't have strong convictions on the pace and how the race might unfold.  I've won some big strikes when I felt worse about a race and I have lost races I felt invincible about.  Welcome to the most humbling game in town!

All that said, I liked Bandura coming in off the Arlington Million show.  The four year old son of The Factor, has deceptive Timeform figs and is very tactical.  The data doesn't support me too much here but I like what I see and I like the last two efforts. 

Valid Point is a three year old undefeated Scat Daddy trained by Chad Brown.  His future over a route of grass is bright but is his present good enough to take on seasoned older horses?  A grade 1 winner, The Secretariat field wasn't spectacular.  Class alone has me high on him as each start goes by.

I'm not going to analyze too much deeper that this next group as I'll only be looking at exactas and I'll be playing this group in with the top two.  Bowies Hero ships in from California.  He's a solid mile horse, 8 of 14 in the money with 6 wins.  Van Beethoven is a Canadian bred Scat Daddy 3 YO also, winless in 6 starts in 2019, winless in 4 tries at the distance.  Last three race running lines before Secretariat:  "...1f out w/o threatening, no threat, never a threat...".  That's a problem.  I liked his Secretariat effort and I think he's improving for Trainer Aidan O'Brien.  Admission Office is just an honest Trainer Brian Lynch special.  Cutting back a 1/16 from a solid Grade 2 Wise Dan.  Of the foreign invaders I like Vintager (GB) but others will argue Suedois (Fr).  Vintager is first time lasix and comes in off two wins.  Trainer Appleby does well first time in North America, 60% off small sample size. 

I'll be keeping my risk small and my fun high.  Enjoy friends. Exactas only for me.  3/4 OVER 3/4 and X, Y, Z.  X, Y and Z will be from my B's and C++'s and I'll be looking at value on the tote more than anything else on the past performances. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Grade 1 at Saratoga

Preservationist with J. Alvarado up; Photo by Coglianese/Joe Labozzetta

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, rapidly completing our tenth full year of providing horse racing analysis and handicapping advice to readers who never asked for it.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for asking me to share my thoughts with you today on The Woodward, a Grade 1 dirt affair over what should be a fast Saratoga course.

Readers of the Turk will note that I have not been very active in horse racing this year.  Quite frankly, I considered quitting The Turk and leaving the sport entirely.  I'm tired of the constant ways that this sport finds to turn off the fans, the bettors, the lack of any real vision, the criticism of anyone that offers any real vision, and then the tracks themselves: tone deaf, reactionary, caring only about themselves.  Musicians playing on the deck of the Titanic, except the Titanic sank years ago.  This is not the grand boat it was.  Look at the empty seats behind Preservationist at Belmont as he enters the win circle.  Visit tracks most days of the week, you already know what I mean.  The Turk is talking to the choir, and its a small choir.  I love the sport, as anyone reading this does to.  Try as much as I have tried in 10 plus years and I have only been able to grow a few new casual fans of the game.  It's disheartening.  I still have my loves: Kentucky Downs is opening for its short meet (5 dates beginning tomorrow through September 12), Arlington is still a palace and sooner or later CDI will let it go for someone to try to make it right, and the horses themselves, the older vets grinding out a living.  Try as humans do to screw things up, the horses are why I won't quit the sport.

Let's get after this handicap!





Let's start with a bit of light video review.


The Whitney G1 SAR:  1 1/8 Miles/Fast Dirt/August 3



The Alydar $100K SAR ; 1 1/8 Miles/Fast Dirt/August 2




The Gold Cup (Not at Hollywood thanks CDI) Santa Anita: 1 1/4/Fast Dirt/27 May





The Pacific Classic G1 Del Mar; 1 1/4 Miles/Fast Dirt/17 August





I'm pretty torn on this race.  There is not a ton of early speed, perhaps enough for the late chargers to take an aim at, but the pace is a bit foggy to me.  I'll assume that Mr. Buff, Tom's d'Etat, and Preservationist will strike the lead early.  By my base handicap you have already surmised that Yosida (Jpn) and Preservationist have the best opportunity to be there at the wire, with  Tom's d'Etat, Vino Rosso, Mongolian Groom and Mr. Buff moving in different direction in the last 1/8 of a mile, some advancing some retreating.  I think I just summed up every horse race that's ever been run over grass!  My apologies.

I think I ultimately see Yosida's class as what separates him from everyone else by a head or so.  The 5 YO $2.3 MM earner is winless in 2019 but possibly just getting going after the grueling Dubai trip, with a very solid Whitney run.  2 of 2 in the money at Saratoga including last year's Woodward.  1 win in 5 dirt starts

Preservationist is my kinda horse, 6 YO, out of Arch, with only 9 career starts.  5 wins in last 7 starts, 5 of 6 in the money over fast dirt. Trainer Jerkens is 29% in Graded Stakes over past rolling year, 21% over Dirt and 24% routes.  Jerkens/Junior Alvarado 25% winners in 16 SAR starts.

Out of my group of 4 possible Place/Show horses, I'm intrigued by Mongolian Groom.  The numbers tell me I shouldn't be:  0 wins in 8 dirt starts, shipping from California, no SAR starts, no wins at distance, 2 wins in last 14 starts, $370,000 earnings in 14 starts, Trainer Ganbat 0% Graded Stakes in 10 tries rolling year.  Why did they ship?  Current form off Grade 2 San Diego and 2 weeks back Pacific Classic not too shabby.  I like the taking a swing approach.  It's not like they shipped to a County Fair, they shipped to Saratoga.  I dig the effort.

Vino Rosso, the 4 YO Curlin, has got the class and 2 straight triple digit Beyers, including a saavy Pletcher move to put him in a weak Gold Cup.  Ran a solid Whitney. Blinkers off, something Pletcher wins 24% of the time in 25 tries. Training good.  Nothing to dislike, but this is gambling and The Turk is unlike a public/paid handicapper who doesn't want to look bad and just tells you what he thinks.  Turk thinks Vino Rosso is an OK horse, $1.3 MM earner who is winless at SAR and incredibly has never Placed.

Tom's d' Etat is also very interesting and I consider him a good priced win candidate.  4-1 ML, I think that goes towards 3-1 but I'd like to see it head towards 5-1 to get really excited.  3 of 3 at SAR, 8 of 8 in the money on fast dirt and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance.  The 6 year old was a $100,000 Smart Stike who only has 13 starts.  5 of last 7 in the money with 3 wins.

I'm thinking exacta's will be my play and I'm watching the price on Tom d'Etat to see if I include him in win portions of the bet.

Have fun with it friends!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby and the Turf Classic

Raging Bull (Fr): Photo by Benoit

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 12th year of providing handicapping advice and betting strategy to an audience that never really asked for it.

Today's the big day, the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs.  To this handicapper, older turf runners are my specialty and focus, so while the rest of the world is enthralled with three year old's breaking in a massive field over dirt at a distance only two have ever raced at, I'm the odd ball who just prefers the older horses.  I like the data, the performance history and pacing of turf racing.  I'm not anti three year old dirt runners, it's just not what I'm caught up in.  I handicapped quite a few races this spring but not one prep, so don't bother reading my advice on that race, there are plenty of bright minds you can tune into for all things Triple Crown.

Now I do have a gamblers pulse and there is something about a big field with wide open odds, so after i indulge my turf racing passion I share my thoughts about tote board handicapping as it relates to the Kentucky Derby.

Let's go!

Your find scratches/changes and track condition via this link to the Churchill Downs website.  The hour by hour weather forecast is looking pretty bleak, especially after 2 PM.  The Turf is Listed as Fast and the Dirt Firm right now but its such a wildcard I think we need to assume sloppy/sealed and Good.




A couple of key races to consider:

12 April 19 Kee Makers Mile G1 Good.




23 March 2019 FG Muniz Memorial G2  Firm 1 1/8




Chad Brown has three runners here with Raging Bull, Ticonderoga and Bricks and Mortar.  I suspect Bricks and Mortar will be a post time chalk and I think he's got a legitimate shot at winning.His good early speed will be critical as he breaks from post 12 and his late turn of foot is very good.  9 of 9 lifetime in the money, 7 wins in 9 turf starts, 1 win in 3 starts at the distance.  Lots to like in the 5 YO son of son Giant's Causeway.  Three straight wins including Pegasus World Turf .

I have Qurbaan as my top overlay.  1 win in 10 turf starts, no wins at the distance, blinkers go on for Trainer McLaughlin who hits 17% of those.  good early speed good late speed, just needs focus and Mike Smith is up to help in that regard.

Raging Bull and Breaking the Rules are in my next tier.  Raging Bull (Fr) has 5 wins in 8 turf starts and came close in the Makers Mark Mile. Solid late speed and a good post draw.  Breaking the Rules is stepping up in class but carries 6 fewer pounds than most of contenders.  7 of 9 lifetime in the money with 4 wins.  Nice solid work for Trainer Shug McGaughey leading up to this.

Synchrony also goes with blinkers on for Trainer Stidham. Big late speed I'm not sure he'll get the pace scenario needed but can easily be going forward still at the end.  5 of 5 in the money at the distance and 12 of 13 in the money over grass.  Same sort of running style in the horse one gate over, Ticonderoga.  A TimeForm 126 late, a big step up in class.  We'll see if he has the targets and the room to unleash at the end.

I'm not sure what I'll be playing, but most likely some low risk $2 exacta  with 12 OVER 1-2-8-9-10 for $10 total.

Regarding the 12 Race, The G1 Kentucky Derby, I'm just tote board handicapping it.  Its a bit of a misnomer, I'm Tote Board-Bet Constructing.  It can get too hectic as the odds shift near post time so I like to have a spread sheet built that I can quickly make adjustments to leading up to bet placement time.  While I typically do all my work within TwinSpires TV, here you will find a link to Churchill Downs webpage live odds.  




I'm not going to get to in depth with the handicapping.  Using the past performances and the tote board I am identifying horses that I think will Win/Place or be tossed from that discussion.  As the rewards most likely will be high, covering a few more potential finishers looking to maximize values.  As you can see, the highest odds on the board right now are maximum security at 18% and the top 4 colts  have odds that total 66%.  If I was assembling bets right now i'd have:

$1 Bet Box 9 horses (5-6-7-8-10-13-16-17-20) for $81.  That's a bit too much so I'll whittle it down a bit before post time.

Have fun friends, Turk out!