The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Grade 1 at Saratoga

Rally Cry (far left in Pompa White Silks)- Photo Erica Miller

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now approaching our ninth year of providing handicapping and analysis to people who never asked for it!  Today's blog post is written for The Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner.  The Thorofan is an organization that I'm happy to be a member of as they represent the fans, a group as ignored as another group, the bettors.  The Turk is trying to stay positive in this era of negativity and I will end this thought by thanking the Thorofan for allowing me this opportunity to share my thoughts as well as celebrate and thank everyone involved with putting on the Saratoga meet.  We enjoyed mostly good, dry weather, stars, and big attendance and handle.    With the Woodward today, Saratoga approaches the end of the season and the horse racing calendar looks forward to one or two more big weekends prior to Breeders' Cup. 

         The Turk really enjoys fall racing as the past performances are mostly filled now with a 2017 record of performance expectations.  As an "information" handicapper primarily, any time I have my current information, the better my handicapping is.  With these high level stakes races the handicapper has a real advantage as you can almost always find video of the most recent efforts to combine with the past performances.  Perhaps that good or maybe its not:  Favorites are winning in 2017 at a 38% clip, returning around $4.90, so when everyone has better information, you have to work harder to find the overlays. It's hard to find them in Grade 1 racing, especially five horse fields like we have today (Milkowski). 

Let's get after it!

The weather seems like it will be dry.  Keep an eye as always on scratches, changes and track conditions.

I wouldn't call this a great betting race as a gambler but I do think it offers quite a bit of interest as a fan.  Gun Runner is 4 of 4 in the money in 2017 with 3 wins and a place in the Dubai World Cup. The four year old Candy Ride (Arg) from Quiet Giant  has $5.2 MM in earnings, 5 of 6 in the money at the distance and set a career high Beyer over this Saratoga surface last time out.  He'll be going to the gate 1-2 or 3-5 and not much reason to doubt him.

1 1/8 Mile Whitney G1-Fast Dirt.  Gun Runner by 5+ lengths.



If you are looking for value, and I'm not sure how much value they represent, look at Rally Cry, Neolithic or War Story.

Alydar 98K 6 Aug 2017:  Rally Cry by 8+ lengths



Rally Cry with J. Velazquez up here for Pletcher instead of stable mate Neolithic, comes in off a sizzling effort in the Alydar.  The Uncle Mo 4 YO bounced back nicely after being dusted in the Grade 1 Met Mile.  He should go to gate between 5-2 and 7-2.

Neolithic amazingly has $2.1 MM in earnings on 8 of 10 in the money lifetime and some big dollar Show finishes.  Last win at 2 turns?  An N1X $37,000 at Gulfstream in December 2016.  Somewhere between 6-1 and 8-1 offers some value.

War Story has one win in seven starts at this distance and 3 wins in 18 fast dirt starts.  8-1 or 10-1 into the gate seems reasonable.

Discreet Lover is winless in seven starts at this distance.  30-1 lottery ticket.

I'm not sure what I do with this.  I'll be looking at Race 9-10-11 Pick Three and seeing if I can find any value in singling Gun Runner and finding overlays in the first two stake races.  The Race 9 Saranac G3 has a 9 horse field and the 7f sprint Spinaway G1 is also a 5 horse affair.

If you like long shots, consider a $2 box exacta with 4-3-1 for $12 or Gun Runner over War Story and Discreet Lover 2 OVER 1-5 for $4.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!



References

Milkowski, Craig @timeformusfigs  (2017, 31 August) "Favorites are winning...."[Tweet] retrieved from https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/903005164453466112

Post Race Recap with Video of Woodbine Pick 3 Race 3-4-5 30 August 2017

It started with good intentions. A handicapper, time on his hands.  A night time card with >$100,000 stakes.  What could go wrong?

Welcome friends to The Turk.  I'll leave Little Turk out of this tonight as he wasn't dumb enough to bet a Pick 3, win the sequence and find a way to post a negative ROI but that's what I did.

In race 3, I covered two horses after the early scratch of Eminent Force/6.  I thought Melmich would win as the very heavy chalk and he did.

In Race 4, I thought Miss Sea would win as the chalk but I covered Sweater Weather who went to post at $3.30-1 and the second choice among bettors.  Onto the last leg alive.

In Race 5, I covered four (4) Two Year Old's primarily on Trainer/Jock stats.  The heavy chalk won and the $29.30-1 horse I covered, Loopety Loo/9 was Place, 4 lengths back.

Three races, two heavy chalks and a negative ROI.   It was just for fun, I bet the $0.20 version and kept my loss to $2.91.

I'll live to fight again.

Gave a good night friends, Turk Out!

Race 3




Race 4



Race 5

The Nomination Is In: The Woodbine Race 3-4-5 Pick 3

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk mid week edition.  I was traveling quite a bit this week and thought I'd take a shot at mid-week Woodbine as I start playing the track quite regularly leading up to Woodbine Mile Day.    I've always like the way the fake dirt plays fair here and I find the races interesting usually, especially the restricted to Canada or Ontario races.

I'm not going to ramble too much pre-race.  Keep an eye on the toteboard as well as scratches and changes,

Have fun friends!  Turk Out.

Post Race Review with Video of Travers Stake Day

Drefong/Taylor Ejdys/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga didn't disappoint anymore than McGregor/Mayweather did. While I love the brash Irishman, I could never root for the foreign invader over the American.  You have to sort of hold your nose about both of their transgressions in life, but for my money, boxing, when its done right, is every bit the best sport on the planet next to horse racing.  How far outside of conventional thinking am I?  I know....

One thing I've always loved about the horses is they have no transgressions.  These athletes live to perform, give us all they have, and hopefully someone with ethics cares for them until they pass, giving them as best a life as they can have after the track.

I choose Drefong for my picture today as my misjudgment of him was my biggest error in a very successful betting day where I turned a 42% profit on my investment capital.  I respected the champion sprinter very much but I didn't like the gate position and severely underestimated his ability to fly out of that gate and strike the lead before the first turn.  I thought Diving Rod's positioning would deliver the upset but it wasn't to be.  Luckily I covered him in the horizontals.  I didn't play it but Drefong was my only miss in my theoretical Pick 6 that would have paid $7,967.  It was right there for the taking but if you play Pick 6 enough you learn you just have to move on from the misses.

The Twin Spires results tell the tale of my day that started slow and really turned with Races 9-10-11 and 12.

Race 6: The Personal Ensign Grade 1




Race 7: The Ballerina Stakes Grade 1




Race 8: The H. Allen Jerkens Grade 1




Race 9: The Forego Grade 1




Race 10: The Sword Dancer Grade 1




Race 11: Travers Stakes Grade 1




Race 12: The Ballston Spa Grade 2




Final Takeaways:

• Songbird was wildly overplayed. She's a great champion, but the Delaware Handicap was a so-so race Forever Unbridled is better than anyone that was in that race,   I started the day with a defensive $10 win bet on Forever Unbridled, the odds on Songbird were too low.  
• I really underestimated Highway Star.  I had a boxed exacta that his game Place obliterated. She's been training well, and had a sloppy track 96 Beyer at Belmont but I just don't see it on paper.  I was fooled.  My first indication was she was 9-2 just before Post, an 18% win percentage, where I had her at 1%.  Ugh.  
• I liked Takaful more than I liked Practical Joke, but I thought they'd both have a chance to win and the close finish didn't disappoint or surprise. I rightly shaded down American Anthem but over estimated Coal Front.  I won an exacta that lost money-a gambling mistake I should not have made.  
• I've already explained my Drefong mishap in The Forego.  
• I had Sadler's Joy prerace to win The Sword Dancer.  This race seemed so obvious.  I placed my only Trifecta bet of the day and won vertically $34 dollars on a Tri and Exacta.  Wished I'd played more!  I didn't buy the Idaho(Ire) hype. 
• I had West Coast as my co-favorite to win the Travers with Irap.  I had Gunnevera at the bottom of my group that could Place, seven deep, but I can't say I was that high on him.  
• I went into Race 12 with a Will Pay if Roco Rojo (Ire) won of $536 in the Pick 3.  That said, I thought Antonoe would finally upset her older rival, but it wasn't to be.
• I finished with two pick 3 wins and an entertaining afternoon.  

Have Fun Friends- Turk Out!

The Nomination In In: Travers Day Grand Slam Race 9-10-11-12

Mind Your Biscuits/NYRA

Welcome Friends to the Second Edition of the Turk and the Little Turk on Travers Day 2017.  The first post of the day focused on Races 6-8-8 while this post is the Grand Slam of races 9-10-11 and 12.

The Turk isn't a big on historical context. I'm a handicapper, a race fan, but I'm not one of the self important  horse racing elites who feel the need to give you  share with you their opinion of which historical runner was better than the other.

I will go out on a limb and say that Mind Your Biscuits is the second most successful NY State Bred of the past 15 years since Funny Cide.  I don't think that will be too controversial.

Race 9 starts a Pick 4 Grand Slam and concludes the card for me.

Let's Get After it!



Race 9 also starts a P3 (9-10-11) as well as the Grand Slam (9-10-11-12) while Race 10 Starts a P3 (10-11-12) as well and I'll be playing horizontally as well as vertically.  I'm going to end my blogging for the day with just a quick preview of the P4/Grand Slam Horizontal that starts off Race 9.




I'll be focused on something similar to these base handicap/bet constructions.  It's time for the Ol' Turk to put down the blog and settle into racing.  We'll talk about the races and the racers themselves more in detail with video in the post race posts.

Have Fun Friends- Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 at Saratoga

Takaful: Robert Mauhar/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  That very handsome colt in Shadwell Stable silks is Takaful, not my top pick but an intriguing runner in today's H. Allen Jerkens, part of this first of several blog posts today related to Saratoga.

Travers Day at Saratoga is one of the great betting days of the year for Graded Stakes fans like me.  I know, I lose street cred by proclaiming myself a fan first, degenerate second, but I don't really give a s**t about street cred as a handicapper or bettor.  I care about the quality of my work and my handicapping, and I care about adding improvements to my bet construction and overall approach to racetrack investing.

I'm approaching, I'm reaching, I've already arrived at a new place in my life:  North of 50, set in my ways, my Little Turk on the doorstep of adulthood and I'm taking stock of the things I love to do.  I'm still clinging to my love of the horses and the races.  I've really enjoyed writing this blog for the sheer pleasure of it.  I'd like to think that people will return to blogs again after the pre-Twitter heyday, but I'm in it for the long haul and I'm in it for me and the people who enjoy these free thoughts.

I'm going to break Travers Day into bite sized nuggets.  The first post of the day is the Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 that includes The Personal Ensign, The Ballerina and the newly re minted Kings Bishop, the H. Allen Jerkens, all Grade 1s.  I'm usually not down with name changes, but how can you be against putting Mr. Jerkens name on anything?

The Friday/Saturday weather looks dry.  Keep your eye on the Track Conditions and Scratches and Changes prior to betting always.

I'm also unveiling a new chart look this week.  it's something I use as I prep to bet as post time approaches to help me identify under and overlays.  I've taken the Morning Line into Percentage.  Why is the morning Line >100%?  Track Takeout and Breakage (losses during rounding, retained by track).  I use the POST RACE version of my charts in real time to update post time odds and make my vertical bets (intra race).

Anyway, these three races are pretty chalky.  With Race 7-8 at 7F Pace and out of  the gate speed plays a huge role and Race 6 with a five horse field and a huge but vulnerable favorite.



Race 6 starts a Pick 3 (6-7-8).  Race 7 starts a P3 (7-8-9) as well as a Pick 6 (7-8-9-10-11-12) and Race 8 starts a P3 (8-9-10 and a $1MM P4 8-9-10-11).



I don't know yet what I'm doing.  I'm sure it will mirror what you see here but I may try and trim Race 8 down to 4 contenders and recover my value horses in Race 6.  This is the mix and match part of gambling that I use these spreadsheets to help me with as post time approaches.  I did it with red pen and paper for years but two computer monitors, a tablet a phone and I am becoming much more efficient.

Have fun friends- Turk out!

Saratoga 2017 Graded Stakes Race Video by Turf and Dirt through August 13

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk.

In this blog posted is video on all graded stakes at  Saratoga Springs from the opening of the Meet through August 13.

I've played Saratoga lightly since the beginning of the meet.  This upcoming Saturday's Alabama Stakes and Lake Placid will be feature races of this blog and the P3's surrounding these races will be my primary play.

If you find this helpful, leave me a comment.

Turk Out!


Turf


Lake George Stakes G3 8.5F  3YO F  21 July





Diana Stakes G1 9f   3YO and Up  22 July




Bowling Green G2  11F 4 YO and Up 29 July





Coronation Cup Stakes 5.5 F  3 YO   31 July




National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame G2  1 1/16 Miles  3 YOs  4 Aug



The Waya G3  1 1/2 Miles F&M 3YO and Up  5 August



Fourstar Dave Handicap G1  1 Mile 3 YO




Dirt

Coaching Club American Oaks G1  9F 3 YO Fillies 23 July




Honorable Miss H. G2  6F  3 Yo and Up F/M  26 July



John Morrissey Stakes 6.5F  3 Yo and Up F/M



Curlin Stakes 9F  3 YO



Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes H. G1  6f 3 YO& Up  29 July



Amsterdam Stakes G2 6.5 F Dirt 3YO



Jim Dandy   G2 9F   3YO




Shuvee H. G3 9F 3Yo and Up F/M  30 July




Shine Again Stakes 7f  3Yo and Up F/M  2 August




The Test G1  7F  3YO Fillies 5 August 





The Whitney G1 1 1/8 Miles 3 YO and Up  5 August





The Adirondack G2 6 1/2 F 2 YO Fillies 12 August



Saratoga Special G2   6/1/2 F 2YOs   13 August